Jim
10-17-2007, 06:47 PM
My Top 50 teams
Top 25 = SEC: 7, Big XII: 5, Pac Ten: 4, Big Ten: 3, Big East: 3, ACC: 3
Teams 26-50 = Big Ten: 4, ACC: 4, Big XII: 4, Big East: 3, MWC: 3, Pac Ten: 2, WAC: 2, SEC: 1, CUSA: 1, Sun Belt: 1
(1) Ohio State - Routs Kent State as their offense and defense are in full synch.
(2) Oregon - Missed out on #1 ranking by a dropped ball at the flag marker. Ducks are rolling like Buckeyes.
(3) South Florida - Just slightly behind Oregon. Bulls stampede Knights 64-12 in champion fashion.
(4) Louisiana State - Play a second classic game in a row, losing to an inspired Kentucky. Still the team to beat in the SEC.
Oklahoma - Knock off undefeated #11th ranked Missouri. Still have issues with secondary and now, special teams.
(6) Boston College - Manage to stay ahead of an inspired Notre Dame in South Bend. Very good but beatable.
(7) South Carolina - Defeat an inspired North Carolina on the road. Hard road ahead in conference.
(8) Arizona State –bury Washington like they were expected to do. Take note USC, Cal.
(9) West Virginia - Manage to move up one notch even with a bye week due to USC and Cal.
(10) Kentucky - Move into Top Ten for a second time with major upset win over #1 LSU. Host Florida next week!!!
(11) California - Well, Oregon State is probably better than Stanford. Bears lose at home as well.
(12) Southern Cal - Win over Arizona at home in an unimpressively, 20-13.
(13) Auburn - “Cardiac kids” as Tigers come back on the road after late Arkansas rally.
(14) Florida - Lose one notch due to Kentucky and Auburn wins. In action next week at Kentucky, a “must watch” game.
(15) Kansas - Unbeaten Jayhawks rout Baylor as expected. Headed towards a showdown vs. Missouri in the finale.
(16) Michigan - Bury once beaten Purdue 48-21. Remain unbeaten in Big Ten play. Headed to showdown vs. Buckeyes.
(17) Tennessee - Those two blowout losses at Cal and at Florida keep them from rising higher at this time.
(18) Maryland – Not on the radar but a serious force to contend with in the ACC. Watch out.
(19) Cincinnati - Louisville, even with their failures is a dangerous team. Bearcats are upset at home by Brohm and Company.
(20) Missouri - An excellent game by the Tigers even in defeat. They’re practically unstoppable on offense.
(21) Texas Tech - Other than last minute loss to Okla. State, the Red Raiders are stomping everyone they play.
(23) Georgia - They defeat Vanderbilt but struggle in so doing, 20-17. Better get it together Richt as it only gets tougher.
(23) Penn State - Trounce once beaten Wisconsin 38-7 in Happy Valley. Now playing the role of “spoiler”.
(24) Virginia Tech - Finally getting some offense even if against lowly Duke. Hokies getting back into form. Beamerball !!!
(25) - Kansas State – trounce upstart Colorado 47-20. Prince has the Wildcats back on track.
Texas, Hawaii, Illinois, Virginia, Rutgers, Alabama, Wisconsin, Boise State, Michigan State, Connecticut, Purdue, Florida State, Clemson,
UCLA, Brigham Young, Texas A&M, Air Force, Georgia Tech, Colorado, Troy, Oregon State, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Tulsa, New Mexico
Featured Games:
(1) Florida at Kentucky
How could this game not be top billing? We have a twice beaten champion who is primed to ascend the ladder once again to SEC prominence vs. a team nobody can hate who just did the impossible by knocking off the nation’s #1 ranked and unbeatable team in a classic fashion. Can you actually visualize the Gators losing three in a row? Didn’t think so, as I can’t either. LSU has far more balance than Florida and is superior on both sides of the ball to anybody else in the SEC yet the Wildcats overcame this. Can the Wildcats possibly mount a Herculean effort for a second straight week? Possibly. Can Florida travel to the home field of the team that just did what Kentucky did and win? Probably. Do the Wildcats believe in themselves? Yes. How about Florida? Yes, of course. They’ve had a week off to heal their wounds which are far more mental than physical. Recall that Kentucky wilted under the pressure vs. South Carolina but dug down deep vs. LSU to eliminate the humiliation they suffered last year.
The Gators are very efficient in the passing game ranking 3rd nationally with Tim Tebow accounting for 326 yards per game (247 passing). They are less stellar in passing defense giving up 230 yards per game. Andre Woodson has an excellent understanding of recognizing what a defense is going to allow. He’s totaling 260 passing yards per game and is 16th in efficiency. Defensively both teams give up yardage on defense (UK 381 and Florida 324 and in points with UK yielding 26 and Florida 21). Rushing shows Tim Tebow leading all Florida rushers with 83 yards per game and Rafael Little gaining 114 yards for the Wildcats. The game is in Lexington and the Wildcats have the momentum and “believe”. Florida, used to success and playing with a huge target on their backs and under constant pressure, are under even more pressure as they try to snap a two game SEC skid and remain in the SEC East race. But Kentucky now believes and will have an excellent week of preparation. Florida is eliminated from the SEC East race.
Odds: Florida -7. (I’ll take Kentucky +7)
Predicted Score: Kentucky 34, Florida 31.
(2) Auburn at LSU
It’s not surprising that the SEC East and SEC West offer up the top two games this week. Much is to be decided in both divisions where Auburn has a chance to get into the driver’s seat out west while Kentucky can get into a dead heat with South Carolina in the east. The way this season is going anything can happen. From one week to the next the SEC has you sitting on the edge of your seat, holding your breath waiting for the next snap of the ball. Auburn has beaten Florida and Arkansas pretty much on the last play of the game. In their two losses they basically lost the game on the last play of the game so they are fully used to playing four complete quarters and then OT if necessary. They win and lose by narrow margins and, as a consequence, are leading this year’s race for the “Cardiac Award”. Offensively the War Eagles are not that impressive (97th with 335 yards/game) but do have a middle-of-the-road running game (149 yards/game) but almost a bottom feeder rating as a passing team – 105th nationally with 170 yards per game and a 87th passing efficiency. The defense, however, is saving them. There they rank 9th nationally yielding 279 yards/game and only 109 on the ground and ranking 11th nationally in efficiency against the pass. All of this results in yielding just 15.6 points per game.
OK, we all know what happened to LSU at Kentucky. Nobody expected UK to put up 43 on LSU – not even the Wildcats if they’re perfectly honest. What can you say about LSU other than they are the complete team with future NFL stars all over the place. Offensively they’re averaging 428 yards per game with a crushing running game netting 232 per game. They rank 2nd in total defense, 4th in passing defense (even after Kentucky), 1st in efficiency against the pass (again, even after Kentucky) and 2nd in turnover margin (+1.86). I think it will be safe to say that Auburn isn’t going to inflict much damage, other than possibly to themselves, by passing the ball. Auburn will have to rely on their defense to keep them in this game. While that has worked well for them the AU defense is eclipsed by one that is even better. Auburn will play for field position in hopes that Wes Byrum’s foot will make the difference. Its worked most of the time but Arkansas isn’t LSU. Having said that I must say they bottled up Florida all evening and Byrum’s foot ultimately proved to be the difference. LSU has some injuries but Les Miles policy is to not make them public. Lots of Tigers left the field in Lexington. Still …
Odds: LSU -10.5 (I’ll take LSU -10.5)
Predicted Score: LSU 28, Auburn 16.
(3) Michigan State at Ohio State
Since dropping games to Wisconsin and Northwestern, Michigan State has pretty much disappeared as a blip on the radar. Make no mistake about it, the Spartans are an explosive team that can put up points in a variety of styles. They rank 15th is total offense (467 yards/game) and 9th in rushing with 243 yards (with Ringer and Caulcrick) and put up 37 points per game. They are an efficient passing team ranking 20th with Brian Hoyer airing it out for 220 of the 224 yards MSU gains passing per game. They can also return punts as they average 29 yards per return after applying 14 sacks/TFL per game - ranking 2nd and 3rd nationally in those categories. While they give up 333 yards and 25 points per game they tend to outscore their opposition. Winning usually requires scoring points but they were scorched twice in their two losses giving up 37 and 48. Ranking 84th in efficiency against the pass has exposed a problem that is band-aided at times.
The only team that is better than LSU defensively is Ohio State. They rank 1st in total and scoring defense (less than 7 points per game), 2nd in rushing as well as passing defense and 1st in efficiency against the pass. Offensively they net 414 yards and 36 points per game. After a sluggish start this year they’ve improved overall but have faced a less than impressive schedule with their opponents totaling a 23-25 overall record. The Spartans opponents going 22-24 so that’s even though MSU has played more BCS level competition. The Buckeyes continue to win while others fall and now find themselves atop the college football world due almost exclusively to the attrition others have sustained rather than conquering stiff competition themselves. They’ve lost only one game since their loss to Penn State in 2005. They find ways to win and this game will mark the beginning of five remaining usually tough games (MSU, at Penn State, home again against Wisconsin and Illinois and then traveling to Michigan for the finale). As far as the Big Ten goes they’re playing a tough slate. This game will feature the flash and speed of Michigan State vs. the patient Buckeyes. The Spartans give up yardage but are able to move with great success. The Buckeyes also move well but their opponents have been weaker overall. Buckeyes will score but also slow down MSU’s offense.
Odds: Ohio State -17 (I’ll take Michigan State +17)
Predicted Score: Ohio State 34, Michigan State 24
(4) South Florida at Rutgers
USF began surging against UNC and it hasn’t leveled off yet. Matt Grothe leads USF rushers with 58 yds/game on the ground and 244 yds/game in overall offense. They have an excellent defense that ranks 11thoverall (284 yds/game), have a +1.33 turnover margin, average 3 sacks/game and 11 tackles for loss (10th, 10th and 1st nationally) and are of the nation’s best in efficiency against the pass. They’ve registered two marquis wins thus far against Auburn and West Virginia and beginning with Rutgers, face solid opposition for three straight games. They are ranked BCS #2 which means if they win out they stand a very good chance of playing for the national championship down in Louisiana.
Rutgers stumbled in the first two real games they’ve played this season. Other than those two losses they’ve fed on poor opposition (Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State and Syracuse) so it is hard to see if they’ve really overcome the issues that lead to their successive losses to Maryland and Cincinnati (both home games). The game vs. USF marks the first of three successive games against strong opposition. They have an explosive offense ranking 11th at 490 yds, 37 points and a remarkable 308 yds/game. Last year they couldn’t pass and now Teel is very effective through the air. Defensively they are upper-echelon allowing just 297 yds and 17 points per game. They rank 5th in passing defense, 6th in passing efficiency and rarely allow a sack (only 0.67/game). Even with Ray Rice, this game seems to boil down to how effective Rutgers passing game (12th nationally) is going to be vs. USF’s passing defense (15th with 178 yards/game). We can see that USF’s passing game is going to be severely tested by Rutgers 6th ranked pass defense. USF is going to have to run the ball so Matt Grothe is going to be a busy man. Teel and Price ought to team up well as the Knights can hurt you both ways.
The short week will affect both teams but Rutgers gets USF at home and the Knights are still looking for that first quality win this year. USF is riding high but I think Rutgers is due. If you can reduced Grothe’s impact you can control USF’s offense. The season of upsets continues.
Odds: South Florida -2.5 (I’ll take Rutgers +2.5)
Predicted Score: Rutgers 31, South Florida 28
(5) Michigan at Illinois
They key for Michigan is to limit Illinois’ running game. Mendenhall and Williams combine for 175 yds/game and Illinois totals 243 rushing yards/game and 395 yards in total. They can be moved on as they yield 362 yds/game and 255 of that through the air while they maintain a stout rush defense. The Illini are unbeaten at home to include upset wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. All that can be interpreted, at least in my view, is that they were thinking ahead to Michigan rather than focusing on Iowa last week in their 10-6 upset loss in Iowa City. In their last two wins the running game was outstanding and for the season they average better than 5 yards/carry.
After a disastrous start, the Wolverines have rebounded and are in the Big Ten race with #1 Ohio State. Other than against Purdue and Notre Dame, Big Blue hasn’t won impressively. They average 408 yds of offense per game practically split even on how they get it. They are fair as far as statistics go with nothing exceptional. Michael Hart leads the nation in rushing (154 yds/game) as well as in total offense for Michigan. Manning ham and Arrington are pulling in almost 12 passes/game combined but for only 156 yds/game – so first down catches (12-15 yds) primarily. However, he came up big against Purdue grabbing 8 for 147 yds. Flipping that coin, Mike Hart had to leave the game late in the first half with an ankle injury. No word yet on whether or not he’ll play vs. Illinois as he didn’t return vs. Purdue.
Traveling to Illinois marks the first of four of their remaining games where they’ll face stiff competition (at Illinois, home vs. Minnesota, at Mich. State, at Wisconsin and then at home vs. Ohio State). They need to win out to claim a successful season. I feel their passing game will work vs. Illinois but that the Illini running game will dent the Wolverines. The game is at Illinois and I think this will favor the Illini greatly as UM has played only one game on the road this year (at Northwestern). Illinois will not have any serious problems looking ahead even though they play a better than usual Ball State at home. Neither will Michigan who hosts Minnesota next week. I feel Hart will be limited if he plays so it will be up to the passing game with an inconsistent Manningham being the primary. Perhaps Arrington will be the break out player for Big Blue?
Odds: Michigan -3 (I’ll take Michigan -3)
Predicted Score: Michigan 31, Illinois 27.
(6) Texas Tech at Missouri
An offensive show is about to unfold. I expect at least 1,000 yards of offense in this game as Texas Tech leads the nation in total offense (582 yds/game), passing offense (500.4 yds/game), 2nd in passing efficiency and 3rd in scoring at 50 points/game. True freshman Michael Crabtree is hauling in 11 receptions/game for 178 yards and has scored 18 TDs – each of which leads the nation. Graham Harrell is totaling 446 yds/game going 283 of 383 for 3,503 yards, 34 TDs and only 4 picks, which also leads the nation. The only way this team isn’t scoring is if they turn it over (4 picks and 8 fumbles lost). Defensively they’re yielding 342 yds/game and boast a solid pass defense ranking 16th yielding 178 yds and 25th in efficiency against thee pass – they certainly get plenty of practice doing so during the week. They play only two more home games but crucial ones vs. Colorado and Oklahoma.
Missouri was impressive against Oklahoma last week and had Missouri not stopped themselves, might have put up 45 or more points. Thing is that the Sooners would have put up more themselves had they not turned it over. Basically OU and Mizzou conducted a clinic in how to execute the spread offense with most stops coming at their own hands. The Tigers offense ranks 5th nationally at 534 yds, 5th in passing with 358 yds, 17th in passing efficiency and 10th in scoring with 40 points per game. Defensively they leak like a sieve giving up 403 yds/game (78th) and 100th in pass defense allowing 265 yds but only 24 points per game. But Tech gives up just 20.5. Tony Temple will probably play in this game so if there is time to run the ball vs. Tech, he’ll be ready to go. While Tech tends to favor one super-receiver, Missouri spreads it around with four receivers gathering in between 5 and 7 passes per game as part of Chase Daniel’s 377 yds/game average in total offense.
Missouri definitely has the stronger running game but can the Tigers waste time running the ball when Tech will air it out and put up a ton of points. Perhaps Mizzou can slow the game down? Might be unlike the Tigers to do this as they are a lightning scoring team themselves. What will help Missouri is that this game is at home. Missouri will not be looking ahead as their next opponent is at home vs. Iowa State while Tech hosts Colorado. Missouri’s offense is as potent as Texas Tech’s. The Tigers are more dynamic however and average more than twice what Tech averages (175 to 81). It’s at Missouri.
Odds: Missouri -3.5 (I’ll take Texas Tech)
Predicted Score: Missouri 41, Texas Tech 38.
(7) Tennessee at Alabama
Oh Alabama, do you have your work cut out for you! Rival Ole Miss, then arch rival Tennessee followed by the “cat’s meow”, LSU. No open dates either to allow you to get over the bruises – ouch! Nick Saban may have built LSU but it took him a couple of years to get them to contend. The same will be required at Alabama – assuming he can recruit against all of the major programs in the SEC successfully enough to get atop his own division much less the SEC as a whole. Tennessee, since its drubbing at the hands of Florida (59-20) has won three straight including very impressive wins the past two weeks over Georgia and Miss. State 35-14 and 33-21). Erik Ainge has got the Vols offense humming at 425 yds, 34 points per game and 256 yds/game in total offense himself. Defensively Tennessee is getting better and the 389 yds/game average is skewed somewhat by those early blowout losses to California and Florida.
Tennessee has cut its points allowed by half since Florida and is increasingly developing its running game while reducing its reliance on the passing game resulting in more success. Alabama is 5-2 but has had to struggle in each of its wins since the opener (vs. West Carolina). The more brutal portion of Tennessee’s schedule is now behind them and their new success could not come at a better time as they enter into the second half of their season. Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide can’t help but think about next week to some extent.
Odds: Alabama is just a 1 point favorite after opening at “0”. (I’ll take Tennessee +1)
Predicted Score: Tennessee 27, Alabama 21.
(8) USC at Notre Dame
Nothing critical about this game as to national rankings but it will show two things. How well USC can play on the road in a hostile environment and how well the Fighting Irish can prepare for a game that will define their dedication and willingness to give it more than 110%. This is a gut check for the Irish squad as Chunk Weis need to look (down) far to check his out – prominent. After a miserable start (probably the worst in Notre Dame history), UND finally scored on offense and then finally won a game on the road against a superior team (UCLA). USC, on the other hand, continues to win and has grown comfortable in doing just what is necessary to get more points than the other guy. Of course, the other guy, not fit to be on the same field with the Trojans, can sometimes develop an attitude and say, “why the hell not try?” Stanford, a 41 point underdog did that and upset USC, 24-23. Notre Dame ought to take note of that – and I’m sure they did. On the same day, across town in LA, they upset UCLA, 20-7. They fought hard against #2 Boston College (human polls) and mounted a comeback after falling behind 20-0 but eventually fell, 27-14 in South Bend.
Do you believe in miracles? Hopefully everybody at Notre Dame has been to confession, taken communion and been praying really hard. Of course, this will go only so far unless you’re getting your techniques and fundamentals and game plan down pat as you approach Saturday.
If you look at USC’s statistics you see a dominant offense (430 yds/game), top ten ranked defense (267 yds/game) that is actually the real success of their team. They rank 5th in rushing defense (67 yds/game) and 8th in total defense. On offense John David Booty is totaling 239 yds/game and Turner and Davis are catching ten balls for 140 yds/game. Since their win over Washington State (47-14), they’ve beaten Washington and Arizona while losing to Stanford – probably three of the worst teams in the Pac Ten – by total of +6 points (two of those games in LA no less). The ongoing NCAA investigation has to be weighing on the coaching staff as the current players are probably innocent. Something is going to come down and I think this explains their performance.
Notre Dame has an extremely rich tradition. Even Jesus Christ Himself attends every game. But this year, if religion has any bearing on all of this, is a year of penance. There are 119 teams in Div-IA. The Irish produce the lowest rushing total in the nation (32 yds), the least in total offense (191 yds), the most sacks allowed (4.86 /game), next to last in scoring (offensively) at 11.4 points/game and 115th in passing efficiency to go along with 111th ranked passing “attack” 159 yds/game. They have a good pass defense (14th at 173 yds/game) and are good in efficiency against the pass (27th) but this should come as no surprise since you don’t need to drive the length of the field to score points on them. The Irish have been quite generous during this year of penance and self flagellation. The leprechaun will stagger up, with his face welling, and continue to throw punches against the brass breast plates of USC. But ultimately he’ll get stuffed.
Odds: USC -19 (I’ll take Notre Dame +19)
Predicted Score: USC 31, Notre Dame 14
(9) Kansas State at Oklahoma State
So, either the Cowboys have found something or the Cornhuskers have lost something.. or is a bit of both? OSU coulda/shouda won at Texas A&M in the week prior to the Nebraska game as they led 17-0 at the half and had things all going their way. Not sure what happened but they lost 24-23. OSU outscored Texas Tech earlier this year handing the red hot Red Raiders their only defeat thus far. I listened to the first half of the OSU-Husker game last week and was totally surprised. Perhaps Missouri did their psyche in but they we’re playing on a bubble right after their loss to USC. Kansas State finally brought Colorado back down to reality in a resounding 47-20 whipping in Manhattan. This not only speaks well for the Wildcats but goes a long way in making one less uncertain about just how good Kansas really is.
Kansas State has played very tough on the road losing a game they could have easily won at Auburn and then crushing Texas with defense and special teams. They played well enough to win vs. Kansas but the Jayhawks ere not to be denied that day and for the first time since 1989, beat KSU in Manhattan.
As I mentioned before, defense and special teams are KSU’s strong points. The average 3 sacks and 7 tackles for loss per game and average 22 yds and 23 yds respectively on punt returns and kickoff returns. They score points with efficiency averaging 37 per game with less than 400 yards of offense. Josh Freeman is netting 256 yds per game with a solid passing game gaining 265 yds/game largely due to Nelson and Murphy who combine for 14 catches but just 169 yds of the total passing so Freeman mixes it up and has multiple targets. They play with a cool efficiency and don’t get rattled no matter who has the momentum. Surgical and poised and play with a maturity ahead of their years. Look out 2008 and beyond.
Oklahoma State is headed by an emotion coach who is finding his outburst against Jenny Carlson being used by car dealerships talking about competitor’s ads. Pretty good stuff I might add. But even Gundy will have to confess, the Cowboys are just the opposite of KSU on the road. Coming in with hype they got walloped by Georgia in Athens and then Troy, with a rare home game vs. the BCS and on TV, destroyed OSU. Other than a bizarre game where they gave up 715 yds to Texas Tech yet won, they’ve become more stable and consistent. IN early season Zac Robinson took over at QB from highly touted Bobby Reid. Last week vs. Nebraska was the first time under the Cowboys beat a real opponent on the road. For the first time since 1960 they beat Nebraska in Lincoln and handed the Huskers one of their worst defeats in history, 45-14. The Cowboys are an offensive fireworks factory, so common it seems in the Big XII. They rank 12th in total offense with 484 yds/game, 6th in rushing at 246 yds/game and surprisingly, though not stellar, 27th in passing efficiency with Robinson gaining 233 yds/game (50th) and Bowman (tied for 12th) and Pettigrew gaining 150 yds of that. Other than a 1-point loss at Texas A&M, the Cowboys have been very good since the loss to Troy. Defensively they have issues but seemed to have those solved when facing Nebraska last week. This is a tough one as KSU plays well on the road and OSU plays well at home. Both teams are pretty good but KSU has been a bit more focused on getting the job done consistently regardless of location. Cowboys host Texas next week but they realize that game means nothing without taking care of business here first. KSU hosts Baylor next so isn’t really losing any sleep. I think the momentum is still with OSU and they overcome KSU’s opportunistic defense.
Odds: Oklahoma State -3 (I’ll take the Cowboys -3)
Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 34, Kansas State 27.
(10) Miami at Florida State
The battle resumes this year in Tallahassee. Miami has been up and down. They play excellent games vs. Marshall and Texas A&M and then get rocked by Oklahoma and UNC. They’ve dropped two straight in conference play and face FSU, NC State, Virginia, VPI and BC to finish out the season. I expect them to finish up at 6-6 but I’m getting ahead of myself here.
Miami has a sluggish offense averaging just 339 yds/game (95th) but compliments this with an excellent defense allowing just 319 yds/game (25th). Not bad when you consider the defense has to spend more time on the field than is ideal. Since their marquis win over A&M they’ve headed down hill beating Duke 24-14 the getting ripped by UNC before losing a close one to Georgia Tech, who is having problems of their own. Kyle Wright is gaining 210 yds/game. They do well in kickoff returns and manage to get 3 sacks/game. The Hurricanes are clearly a team that hasn’t found itself and are inconsistent.
Florida State is practically a spitting image of Miami. Like the ‘Canes, they yield 318 yds/game and net 343 yds themselves. They do not have a solid offensive line as they are among the worst teams in rushing at 102nd with just 108 yds/game. Changing QB’s from Weatherford to the more agile Xavier Lee hasn’t produced with any consistency. They beat NC State 27-10 but sputtered and lost against Wake Forest. Their best win was probably over Alabama in Jacksonville this year where they lead throughout and won 21-14. As with Miami, their stronger suit is their defense. Even with Jimbo Fisher from LSU, something isn’t working. I think Bowden is telling Fisher what to do as he did with Jeff Bowden. Fisher has the qualifications but the old man is not letting go of the ghost and passing his creation (FSU Seminoles football) on to the next generation. A bunch of old men who regard football as their “blue pill”. Somebody has to win this game in spite of each team’s lack of focus and execution particularly when they have the ball.
Odds: Florida State -6 (I’ll take Miami +6)
Predicted Score: Florida State 24, Miami 20.
The next best bunch:
California 34, at UCLA 28 – The home team has won this game every year beginning with 2000. UCLA was embarrassed, Cal was upset. There is NO LINE.
at Nebraska 27, Texas A&M 20 – Here we have The Jerk (Coach Fran) vs. The Jerk-Off (Callahan). Huskers favored by 2. The “Black Skirts” will be leather.
at Maryland 27, Virginia 20. – Cavaliers winning close games vs. weak opposition. Maryland is a better team.
at Air Force 31, Wyoming 24. – Falcons making a run at MWC title. Beating Wyoming will eliminate all tie-breakers.
Kansas 28, at Colorado 24 – Buffs strong at home. KU will be outplayed but win it in the 4th quarter.
at Arizona 23, Stanford 17 – Battle of the “bottom feeders”. Wildcat defense will seal with win.
Arkansas 27 at Mississippi 14 – Ole Miss is weak and Hogs lost 2 SEC games (of 3 SEC losses) by 5 total points very late.
Penn State 30, at Indiana 17 – PSU has found its rhythm and Indiana is now ready for its slide.
Louisville 31, at Connecticut 17 – Cardinals offense is too powerful and will expose UConn’s misleading defensive prowess.
Oregon 37, at Washington 20 – Rivalry game in Seattle. Huskies are mistake-prone. Ducks banged up but too strong.
The rest of the action:
Arkansas State 34, at MTSU 29 – ASU is having a good year with offense but porous defense. MTSU coming on strong as of late.
Texas 48, at Baylor 10 – Texas wants to crush people when it can. This will basically be another ISU game.
Oklahoma 45, at Iowa State 10 – OU coming up for air, Cyclones don’t want a repeat of last week. It’ll be bad anyway.
Iowa 23, at Purdue 21 – Boilermakers great against weak teams but terrible vs. strong teams. Hawkeyes punched out just once. Purdue drops another one.
at Minnesota 36, North Dakota State 24 – Gophers better realize that they need to win more than one game. This one isn’t even Div-IA.
Northwestern 35, at Eastern Michigan 20
at West Virginia 28, Mississippi State 17 – WVU is itchy. Both teams more concerned about next week. WVU speed vs. MSU defense.
at South Carolina 34, Vanderbilt 17.
at Clemson 40, Central Michigan 17. Chippewas show up but speed will prevail as CMU not doing well vs. BCS. Defense not strong.
at Georgia Tech 35, Army 13– Tech is struggling. Army will put up a fight as they did vs. Wake and BC.
at Navy 24, Wake Forest 23– Middies have a poor defense but are 4-2 with high scoring shoot-outs/ball control. Wake defense/offense up and down.
Cincinnati 37, at Pittsburgh 17 – Panthers are not good. Cincinnati wants to get back to winning.
at Syracuse 32, Buffalo 23
at TCU 27, Utah 24
at BYU 42, Eastern Washington 16
New Mexico 34, at San Diego State 20
Colorado State 31, at UNLV 22
Nevada 45, at Utah State 35
at Fresno State 37, San Jose State 27
Boise State 38, at Louisiana Tech 17
at New Mexico State 37, Idaho 24
at Wisconsin 41, Northern Illinois 16
Miami (O.) 31, at Temple 20
Ball State 24, at Western Michigan 21
Bowling Green 27, at Kent State 23
Ohio 31, at Toledo 28
at Rice 20, Memphis 14
Tulsa 30, at UCF 28
at East Carolina 25, NC State 17
Houston 38, at UAB 17
Tulane 24, at SMU 17
Southern Miss 35, at Marshall 14
at Troy 41, North Texas 17
FAU 26, at UL-Lafayette 14
at UL-Monroe 28, FIU 13
Top 25 = SEC: 7, Big XII: 5, Pac Ten: 4, Big Ten: 3, Big East: 3, ACC: 3
Teams 26-50 = Big Ten: 4, ACC: 4, Big XII: 4, Big East: 3, MWC: 3, Pac Ten: 2, WAC: 2, SEC: 1, CUSA: 1, Sun Belt: 1
(1) Ohio State - Routs Kent State as their offense and defense are in full synch.
(2) Oregon - Missed out on #1 ranking by a dropped ball at the flag marker. Ducks are rolling like Buckeyes.
(3) South Florida - Just slightly behind Oregon. Bulls stampede Knights 64-12 in champion fashion.
(4) Louisiana State - Play a second classic game in a row, losing to an inspired Kentucky. Still the team to beat in the SEC.
Oklahoma - Knock off undefeated #11th ranked Missouri. Still have issues with secondary and now, special teams.
(6) Boston College - Manage to stay ahead of an inspired Notre Dame in South Bend. Very good but beatable.
(7) South Carolina - Defeat an inspired North Carolina on the road. Hard road ahead in conference.
(8) Arizona State –bury Washington like they were expected to do. Take note USC, Cal.
(9) West Virginia - Manage to move up one notch even with a bye week due to USC and Cal.
(10) Kentucky - Move into Top Ten for a second time with major upset win over #1 LSU. Host Florida next week!!!
(11) California - Well, Oregon State is probably better than Stanford. Bears lose at home as well.
(12) Southern Cal - Win over Arizona at home in an unimpressively, 20-13.
(13) Auburn - “Cardiac kids” as Tigers come back on the road after late Arkansas rally.
(14) Florida - Lose one notch due to Kentucky and Auburn wins. In action next week at Kentucky, a “must watch” game.
(15) Kansas - Unbeaten Jayhawks rout Baylor as expected. Headed towards a showdown vs. Missouri in the finale.
(16) Michigan - Bury once beaten Purdue 48-21. Remain unbeaten in Big Ten play. Headed to showdown vs. Buckeyes.
(17) Tennessee - Those two blowout losses at Cal and at Florida keep them from rising higher at this time.
(18) Maryland – Not on the radar but a serious force to contend with in the ACC. Watch out.
(19) Cincinnati - Louisville, even with their failures is a dangerous team. Bearcats are upset at home by Brohm and Company.
(20) Missouri - An excellent game by the Tigers even in defeat. They’re practically unstoppable on offense.
(21) Texas Tech - Other than last minute loss to Okla. State, the Red Raiders are stomping everyone they play.
(23) Georgia - They defeat Vanderbilt but struggle in so doing, 20-17. Better get it together Richt as it only gets tougher.
(23) Penn State - Trounce once beaten Wisconsin 38-7 in Happy Valley. Now playing the role of “spoiler”.
(24) Virginia Tech - Finally getting some offense even if against lowly Duke. Hokies getting back into form. Beamerball !!!
(25) - Kansas State – trounce upstart Colorado 47-20. Prince has the Wildcats back on track.
Texas, Hawaii, Illinois, Virginia, Rutgers, Alabama, Wisconsin, Boise State, Michigan State, Connecticut, Purdue, Florida State, Clemson,
UCLA, Brigham Young, Texas A&M, Air Force, Georgia Tech, Colorado, Troy, Oregon State, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Tulsa, New Mexico
Featured Games:
(1) Florida at Kentucky
How could this game not be top billing? We have a twice beaten champion who is primed to ascend the ladder once again to SEC prominence vs. a team nobody can hate who just did the impossible by knocking off the nation’s #1 ranked and unbeatable team in a classic fashion. Can you actually visualize the Gators losing three in a row? Didn’t think so, as I can’t either. LSU has far more balance than Florida and is superior on both sides of the ball to anybody else in the SEC yet the Wildcats overcame this. Can the Wildcats possibly mount a Herculean effort for a second straight week? Possibly. Can Florida travel to the home field of the team that just did what Kentucky did and win? Probably. Do the Wildcats believe in themselves? Yes. How about Florida? Yes, of course. They’ve had a week off to heal their wounds which are far more mental than physical. Recall that Kentucky wilted under the pressure vs. South Carolina but dug down deep vs. LSU to eliminate the humiliation they suffered last year.
The Gators are very efficient in the passing game ranking 3rd nationally with Tim Tebow accounting for 326 yards per game (247 passing). They are less stellar in passing defense giving up 230 yards per game. Andre Woodson has an excellent understanding of recognizing what a defense is going to allow. He’s totaling 260 passing yards per game and is 16th in efficiency. Defensively both teams give up yardage on defense (UK 381 and Florida 324 and in points with UK yielding 26 and Florida 21). Rushing shows Tim Tebow leading all Florida rushers with 83 yards per game and Rafael Little gaining 114 yards for the Wildcats. The game is in Lexington and the Wildcats have the momentum and “believe”. Florida, used to success and playing with a huge target on their backs and under constant pressure, are under even more pressure as they try to snap a two game SEC skid and remain in the SEC East race. But Kentucky now believes and will have an excellent week of preparation. Florida is eliminated from the SEC East race.
Odds: Florida -7. (I’ll take Kentucky +7)
Predicted Score: Kentucky 34, Florida 31.
(2) Auburn at LSU
It’s not surprising that the SEC East and SEC West offer up the top two games this week. Much is to be decided in both divisions where Auburn has a chance to get into the driver’s seat out west while Kentucky can get into a dead heat with South Carolina in the east. The way this season is going anything can happen. From one week to the next the SEC has you sitting on the edge of your seat, holding your breath waiting for the next snap of the ball. Auburn has beaten Florida and Arkansas pretty much on the last play of the game. In their two losses they basically lost the game on the last play of the game so they are fully used to playing four complete quarters and then OT if necessary. They win and lose by narrow margins and, as a consequence, are leading this year’s race for the “Cardiac Award”. Offensively the War Eagles are not that impressive (97th with 335 yards/game) but do have a middle-of-the-road running game (149 yards/game) but almost a bottom feeder rating as a passing team – 105th nationally with 170 yards per game and a 87th passing efficiency. The defense, however, is saving them. There they rank 9th nationally yielding 279 yards/game and only 109 on the ground and ranking 11th nationally in efficiency against the pass. All of this results in yielding just 15.6 points per game.
OK, we all know what happened to LSU at Kentucky. Nobody expected UK to put up 43 on LSU – not even the Wildcats if they’re perfectly honest. What can you say about LSU other than they are the complete team with future NFL stars all over the place. Offensively they’re averaging 428 yards per game with a crushing running game netting 232 per game. They rank 2nd in total defense, 4th in passing defense (even after Kentucky), 1st in efficiency against the pass (again, even after Kentucky) and 2nd in turnover margin (+1.86). I think it will be safe to say that Auburn isn’t going to inflict much damage, other than possibly to themselves, by passing the ball. Auburn will have to rely on their defense to keep them in this game. While that has worked well for them the AU defense is eclipsed by one that is even better. Auburn will play for field position in hopes that Wes Byrum’s foot will make the difference. Its worked most of the time but Arkansas isn’t LSU. Having said that I must say they bottled up Florida all evening and Byrum’s foot ultimately proved to be the difference. LSU has some injuries but Les Miles policy is to not make them public. Lots of Tigers left the field in Lexington. Still …
Odds: LSU -10.5 (I’ll take LSU -10.5)
Predicted Score: LSU 28, Auburn 16.
(3) Michigan State at Ohio State
Since dropping games to Wisconsin and Northwestern, Michigan State has pretty much disappeared as a blip on the radar. Make no mistake about it, the Spartans are an explosive team that can put up points in a variety of styles. They rank 15th is total offense (467 yards/game) and 9th in rushing with 243 yards (with Ringer and Caulcrick) and put up 37 points per game. They are an efficient passing team ranking 20th with Brian Hoyer airing it out for 220 of the 224 yards MSU gains passing per game. They can also return punts as they average 29 yards per return after applying 14 sacks/TFL per game - ranking 2nd and 3rd nationally in those categories. While they give up 333 yards and 25 points per game they tend to outscore their opposition. Winning usually requires scoring points but they were scorched twice in their two losses giving up 37 and 48. Ranking 84th in efficiency against the pass has exposed a problem that is band-aided at times.
The only team that is better than LSU defensively is Ohio State. They rank 1st in total and scoring defense (less than 7 points per game), 2nd in rushing as well as passing defense and 1st in efficiency against the pass. Offensively they net 414 yards and 36 points per game. After a sluggish start this year they’ve improved overall but have faced a less than impressive schedule with their opponents totaling a 23-25 overall record. The Spartans opponents going 22-24 so that’s even though MSU has played more BCS level competition. The Buckeyes continue to win while others fall and now find themselves atop the college football world due almost exclusively to the attrition others have sustained rather than conquering stiff competition themselves. They’ve lost only one game since their loss to Penn State in 2005. They find ways to win and this game will mark the beginning of five remaining usually tough games (MSU, at Penn State, home again against Wisconsin and Illinois and then traveling to Michigan for the finale). As far as the Big Ten goes they’re playing a tough slate. This game will feature the flash and speed of Michigan State vs. the patient Buckeyes. The Spartans give up yardage but are able to move with great success. The Buckeyes also move well but their opponents have been weaker overall. Buckeyes will score but also slow down MSU’s offense.
Odds: Ohio State -17 (I’ll take Michigan State +17)
Predicted Score: Ohio State 34, Michigan State 24
(4) South Florida at Rutgers
USF began surging against UNC and it hasn’t leveled off yet. Matt Grothe leads USF rushers with 58 yds/game on the ground and 244 yds/game in overall offense. They have an excellent defense that ranks 11thoverall (284 yds/game), have a +1.33 turnover margin, average 3 sacks/game and 11 tackles for loss (10th, 10th and 1st nationally) and are of the nation’s best in efficiency against the pass. They’ve registered two marquis wins thus far against Auburn and West Virginia and beginning with Rutgers, face solid opposition for three straight games. They are ranked BCS #2 which means if they win out they stand a very good chance of playing for the national championship down in Louisiana.
Rutgers stumbled in the first two real games they’ve played this season. Other than those two losses they’ve fed on poor opposition (Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State and Syracuse) so it is hard to see if they’ve really overcome the issues that lead to their successive losses to Maryland and Cincinnati (both home games). The game vs. USF marks the first of three successive games against strong opposition. They have an explosive offense ranking 11th at 490 yds, 37 points and a remarkable 308 yds/game. Last year they couldn’t pass and now Teel is very effective through the air. Defensively they are upper-echelon allowing just 297 yds and 17 points per game. They rank 5th in passing defense, 6th in passing efficiency and rarely allow a sack (only 0.67/game). Even with Ray Rice, this game seems to boil down to how effective Rutgers passing game (12th nationally) is going to be vs. USF’s passing defense (15th with 178 yards/game). We can see that USF’s passing game is going to be severely tested by Rutgers 6th ranked pass defense. USF is going to have to run the ball so Matt Grothe is going to be a busy man. Teel and Price ought to team up well as the Knights can hurt you both ways.
The short week will affect both teams but Rutgers gets USF at home and the Knights are still looking for that first quality win this year. USF is riding high but I think Rutgers is due. If you can reduced Grothe’s impact you can control USF’s offense. The season of upsets continues.
Odds: South Florida -2.5 (I’ll take Rutgers +2.5)
Predicted Score: Rutgers 31, South Florida 28
(5) Michigan at Illinois
They key for Michigan is to limit Illinois’ running game. Mendenhall and Williams combine for 175 yds/game and Illinois totals 243 rushing yards/game and 395 yards in total. They can be moved on as they yield 362 yds/game and 255 of that through the air while they maintain a stout rush defense. The Illini are unbeaten at home to include upset wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. All that can be interpreted, at least in my view, is that they were thinking ahead to Michigan rather than focusing on Iowa last week in their 10-6 upset loss in Iowa City. In their last two wins the running game was outstanding and for the season they average better than 5 yards/carry.
After a disastrous start, the Wolverines have rebounded and are in the Big Ten race with #1 Ohio State. Other than against Purdue and Notre Dame, Big Blue hasn’t won impressively. They average 408 yds of offense per game practically split even on how they get it. They are fair as far as statistics go with nothing exceptional. Michael Hart leads the nation in rushing (154 yds/game) as well as in total offense for Michigan. Manning ham and Arrington are pulling in almost 12 passes/game combined but for only 156 yds/game – so first down catches (12-15 yds) primarily. However, he came up big against Purdue grabbing 8 for 147 yds. Flipping that coin, Mike Hart had to leave the game late in the first half with an ankle injury. No word yet on whether or not he’ll play vs. Illinois as he didn’t return vs. Purdue.
Traveling to Illinois marks the first of four of their remaining games where they’ll face stiff competition (at Illinois, home vs. Minnesota, at Mich. State, at Wisconsin and then at home vs. Ohio State). They need to win out to claim a successful season. I feel their passing game will work vs. Illinois but that the Illini running game will dent the Wolverines. The game is at Illinois and I think this will favor the Illini greatly as UM has played only one game on the road this year (at Northwestern). Illinois will not have any serious problems looking ahead even though they play a better than usual Ball State at home. Neither will Michigan who hosts Minnesota next week. I feel Hart will be limited if he plays so it will be up to the passing game with an inconsistent Manningham being the primary. Perhaps Arrington will be the break out player for Big Blue?
Odds: Michigan -3 (I’ll take Michigan -3)
Predicted Score: Michigan 31, Illinois 27.
(6) Texas Tech at Missouri
An offensive show is about to unfold. I expect at least 1,000 yards of offense in this game as Texas Tech leads the nation in total offense (582 yds/game), passing offense (500.4 yds/game), 2nd in passing efficiency and 3rd in scoring at 50 points/game. True freshman Michael Crabtree is hauling in 11 receptions/game for 178 yards and has scored 18 TDs – each of which leads the nation. Graham Harrell is totaling 446 yds/game going 283 of 383 for 3,503 yards, 34 TDs and only 4 picks, which also leads the nation. The only way this team isn’t scoring is if they turn it over (4 picks and 8 fumbles lost). Defensively they’re yielding 342 yds/game and boast a solid pass defense ranking 16th yielding 178 yds and 25th in efficiency against thee pass – they certainly get plenty of practice doing so during the week. They play only two more home games but crucial ones vs. Colorado and Oklahoma.
Missouri was impressive against Oklahoma last week and had Missouri not stopped themselves, might have put up 45 or more points. Thing is that the Sooners would have put up more themselves had they not turned it over. Basically OU and Mizzou conducted a clinic in how to execute the spread offense with most stops coming at their own hands. The Tigers offense ranks 5th nationally at 534 yds, 5th in passing with 358 yds, 17th in passing efficiency and 10th in scoring with 40 points per game. Defensively they leak like a sieve giving up 403 yds/game (78th) and 100th in pass defense allowing 265 yds but only 24 points per game. But Tech gives up just 20.5. Tony Temple will probably play in this game so if there is time to run the ball vs. Tech, he’ll be ready to go. While Tech tends to favor one super-receiver, Missouri spreads it around with four receivers gathering in between 5 and 7 passes per game as part of Chase Daniel’s 377 yds/game average in total offense.
Missouri definitely has the stronger running game but can the Tigers waste time running the ball when Tech will air it out and put up a ton of points. Perhaps Mizzou can slow the game down? Might be unlike the Tigers to do this as they are a lightning scoring team themselves. What will help Missouri is that this game is at home. Missouri will not be looking ahead as their next opponent is at home vs. Iowa State while Tech hosts Colorado. Missouri’s offense is as potent as Texas Tech’s. The Tigers are more dynamic however and average more than twice what Tech averages (175 to 81). It’s at Missouri.
Odds: Missouri -3.5 (I’ll take Texas Tech)
Predicted Score: Missouri 41, Texas Tech 38.
(7) Tennessee at Alabama
Oh Alabama, do you have your work cut out for you! Rival Ole Miss, then arch rival Tennessee followed by the “cat’s meow”, LSU. No open dates either to allow you to get over the bruises – ouch! Nick Saban may have built LSU but it took him a couple of years to get them to contend. The same will be required at Alabama – assuming he can recruit against all of the major programs in the SEC successfully enough to get atop his own division much less the SEC as a whole. Tennessee, since its drubbing at the hands of Florida (59-20) has won three straight including very impressive wins the past two weeks over Georgia and Miss. State 35-14 and 33-21). Erik Ainge has got the Vols offense humming at 425 yds, 34 points per game and 256 yds/game in total offense himself. Defensively Tennessee is getting better and the 389 yds/game average is skewed somewhat by those early blowout losses to California and Florida.
Tennessee has cut its points allowed by half since Florida and is increasingly developing its running game while reducing its reliance on the passing game resulting in more success. Alabama is 5-2 but has had to struggle in each of its wins since the opener (vs. West Carolina). The more brutal portion of Tennessee’s schedule is now behind them and their new success could not come at a better time as they enter into the second half of their season. Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide can’t help but think about next week to some extent.
Odds: Alabama is just a 1 point favorite after opening at “0”. (I’ll take Tennessee +1)
Predicted Score: Tennessee 27, Alabama 21.
(8) USC at Notre Dame
Nothing critical about this game as to national rankings but it will show two things. How well USC can play on the road in a hostile environment and how well the Fighting Irish can prepare for a game that will define their dedication and willingness to give it more than 110%. This is a gut check for the Irish squad as Chunk Weis need to look (down) far to check his out – prominent. After a miserable start (probably the worst in Notre Dame history), UND finally scored on offense and then finally won a game on the road against a superior team (UCLA). USC, on the other hand, continues to win and has grown comfortable in doing just what is necessary to get more points than the other guy. Of course, the other guy, not fit to be on the same field with the Trojans, can sometimes develop an attitude and say, “why the hell not try?” Stanford, a 41 point underdog did that and upset USC, 24-23. Notre Dame ought to take note of that – and I’m sure they did. On the same day, across town in LA, they upset UCLA, 20-7. They fought hard against #2 Boston College (human polls) and mounted a comeback after falling behind 20-0 but eventually fell, 27-14 in South Bend.
Do you believe in miracles? Hopefully everybody at Notre Dame has been to confession, taken communion and been praying really hard. Of course, this will go only so far unless you’re getting your techniques and fundamentals and game plan down pat as you approach Saturday.
If you look at USC’s statistics you see a dominant offense (430 yds/game), top ten ranked defense (267 yds/game) that is actually the real success of their team. They rank 5th in rushing defense (67 yds/game) and 8th in total defense. On offense John David Booty is totaling 239 yds/game and Turner and Davis are catching ten balls for 140 yds/game. Since their win over Washington State (47-14), they’ve beaten Washington and Arizona while losing to Stanford – probably three of the worst teams in the Pac Ten – by total of +6 points (two of those games in LA no less). The ongoing NCAA investigation has to be weighing on the coaching staff as the current players are probably innocent. Something is going to come down and I think this explains their performance.
Notre Dame has an extremely rich tradition. Even Jesus Christ Himself attends every game. But this year, if religion has any bearing on all of this, is a year of penance. There are 119 teams in Div-IA. The Irish produce the lowest rushing total in the nation (32 yds), the least in total offense (191 yds), the most sacks allowed (4.86 /game), next to last in scoring (offensively) at 11.4 points/game and 115th in passing efficiency to go along with 111th ranked passing “attack” 159 yds/game. They have a good pass defense (14th at 173 yds/game) and are good in efficiency against the pass (27th) but this should come as no surprise since you don’t need to drive the length of the field to score points on them. The Irish have been quite generous during this year of penance and self flagellation. The leprechaun will stagger up, with his face welling, and continue to throw punches against the brass breast plates of USC. But ultimately he’ll get stuffed.
Odds: USC -19 (I’ll take Notre Dame +19)
Predicted Score: USC 31, Notre Dame 14
(9) Kansas State at Oklahoma State
So, either the Cowboys have found something or the Cornhuskers have lost something.. or is a bit of both? OSU coulda/shouda won at Texas A&M in the week prior to the Nebraska game as they led 17-0 at the half and had things all going their way. Not sure what happened but they lost 24-23. OSU outscored Texas Tech earlier this year handing the red hot Red Raiders their only defeat thus far. I listened to the first half of the OSU-Husker game last week and was totally surprised. Perhaps Missouri did their psyche in but they we’re playing on a bubble right after their loss to USC. Kansas State finally brought Colorado back down to reality in a resounding 47-20 whipping in Manhattan. This not only speaks well for the Wildcats but goes a long way in making one less uncertain about just how good Kansas really is.
Kansas State has played very tough on the road losing a game they could have easily won at Auburn and then crushing Texas with defense and special teams. They played well enough to win vs. Kansas but the Jayhawks ere not to be denied that day and for the first time since 1989, beat KSU in Manhattan.
As I mentioned before, defense and special teams are KSU’s strong points. The average 3 sacks and 7 tackles for loss per game and average 22 yds and 23 yds respectively on punt returns and kickoff returns. They score points with efficiency averaging 37 per game with less than 400 yards of offense. Josh Freeman is netting 256 yds per game with a solid passing game gaining 265 yds/game largely due to Nelson and Murphy who combine for 14 catches but just 169 yds of the total passing so Freeman mixes it up and has multiple targets. They play with a cool efficiency and don’t get rattled no matter who has the momentum. Surgical and poised and play with a maturity ahead of their years. Look out 2008 and beyond.
Oklahoma State is headed by an emotion coach who is finding his outburst against Jenny Carlson being used by car dealerships talking about competitor’s ads. Pretty good stuff I might add. But even Gundy will have to confess, the Cowboys are just the opposite of KSU on the road. Coming in with hype they got walloped by Georgia in Athens and then Troy, with a rare home game vs. the BCS and on TV, destroyed OSU. Other than a bizarre game where they gave up 715 yds to Texas Tech yet won, they’ve become more stable and consistent. IN early season Zac Robinson took over at QB from highly touted Bobby Reid. Last week vs. Nebraska was the first time under the Cowboys beat a real opponent on the road. For the first time since 1960 they beat Nebraska in Lincoln and handed the Huskers one of their worst defeats in history, 45-14. The Cowboys are an offensive fireworks factory, so common it seems in the Big XII. They rank 12th in total offense with 484 yds/game, 6th in rushing at 246 yds/game and surprisingly, though not stellar, 27th in passing efficiency with Robinson gaining 233 yds/game (50th) and Bowman (tied for 12th) and Pettigrew gaining 150 yds of that. Other than a 1-point loss at Texas A&M, the Cowboys have been very good since the loss to Troy. Defensively they have issues but seemed to have those solved when facing Nebraska last week. This is a tough one as KSU plays well on the road and OSU plays well at home. Both teams are pretty good but KSU has been a bit more focused on getting the job done consistently regardless of location. Cowboys host Texas next week but they realize that game means nothing without taking care of business here first. KSU hosts Baylor next so isn’t really losing any sleep. I think the momentum is still with OSU and they overcome KSU’s opportunistic defense.
Odds: Oklahoma State -3 (I’ll take the Cowboys -3)
Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 34, Kansas State 27.
(10) Miami at Florida State
The battle resumes this year in Tallahassee. Miami has been up and down. They play excellent games vs. Marshall and Texas A&M and then get rocked by Oklahoma and UNC. They’ve dropped two straight in conference play and face FSU, NC State, Virginia, VPI and BC to finish out the season. I expect them to finish up at 6-6 but I’m getting ahead of myself here.
Miami has a sluggish offense averaging just 339 yds/game (95th) but compliments this with an excellent defense allowing just 319 yds/game (25th). Not bad when you consider the defense has to spend more time on the field than is ideal. Since their marquis win over A&M they’ve headed down hill beating Duke 24-14 the getting ripped by UNC before losing a close one to Georgia Tech, who is having problems of their own. Kyle Wright is gaining 210 yds/game. They do well in kickoff returns and manage to get 3 sacks/game. The Hurricanes are clearly a team that hasn’t found itself and are inconsistent.
Florida State is practically a spitting image of Miami. Like the ‘Canes, they yield 318 yds/game and net 343 yds themselves. They do not have a solid offensive line as they are among the worst teams in rushing at 102nd with just 108 yds/game. Changing QB’s from Weatherford to the more agile Xavier Lee hasn’t produced with any consistency. They beat NC State 27-10 but sputtered and lost against Wake Forest. Their best win was probably over Alabama in Jacksonville this year where they lead throughout and won 21-14. As with Miami, their stronger suit is their defense. Even with Jimbo Fisher from LSU, something isn’t working. I think Bowden is telling Fisher what to do as he did with Jeff Bowden. Fisher has the qualifications but the old man is not letting go of the ghost and passing his creation (FSU Seminoles football) on to the next generation. A bunch of old men who regard football as their “blue pill”. Somebody has to win this game in spite of each team’s lack of focus and execution particularly when they have the ball.
Odds: Florida State -6 (I’ll take Miami +6)
Predicted Score: Florida State 24, Miami 20.
The next best bunch:
California 34, at UCLA 28 – The home team has won this game every year beginning with 2000. UCLA was embarrassed, Cal was upset. There is NO LINE.
at Nebraska 27, Texas A&M 20 – Here we have The Jerk (Coach Fran) vs. The Jerk-Off (Callahan). Huskers favored by 2. The “Black Skirts” will be leather.
at Maryland 27, Virginia 20. – Cavaliers winning close games vs. weak opposition. Maryland is a better team.
at Air Force 31, Wyoming 24. – Falcons making a run at MWC title. Beating Wyoming will eliminate all tie-breakers.
Kansas 28, at Colorado 24 – Buffs strong at home. KU will be outplayed but win it in the 4th quarter.
at Arizona 23, Stanford 17 – Battle of the “bottom feeders”. Wildcat defense will seal with win.
Arkansas 27 at Mississippi 14 – Ole Miss is weak and Hogs lost 2 SEC games (of 3 SEC losses) by 5 total points very late.
Penn State 30, at Indiana 17 – PSU has found its rhythm and Indiana is now ready for its slide.
Louisville 31, at Connecticut 17 – Cardinals offense is too powerful and will expose UConn’s misleading defensive prowess.
Oregon 37, at Washington 20 – Rivalry game in Seattle. Huskies are mistake-prone. Ducks banged up but too strong.
The rest of the action:
Arkansas State 34, at MTSU 29 – ASU is having a good year with offense but porous defense. MTSU coming on strong as of late.
Texas 48, at Baylor 10 – Texas wants to crush people when it can. This will basically be another ISU game.
Oklahoma 45, at Iowa State 10 – OU coming up for air, Cyclones don’t want a repeat of last week. It’ll be bad anyway.
Iowa 23, at Purdue 21 – Boilermakers great against weak teams but terrible vs. strong teams. Hawkeyes punched out just once. Purdue drops another one.
at Minnesota 36, North Dakota State 24 – Gophers better realize that they need to win more than one game. This one isn’t even Div-IA.
Northwestern 35, at Eastern Michigan 20
at West Virginia 28, Mississippi State 17 – WVU is itchy. Both teams more concerned about next week. WVU speed vs. MSU defense.
at South Carolina 34, Vanderbilt 17.
at Clemson 40, Central Michigan 17. Chippewas show up but speed will prevail as CMU not doing well vs. BCS. Defense not strong.
at Georgia Tech 35, Army 13– Tech is struggling. Army will put up a fight as they did vs. Wake and BC.
at Navy 24, Wake Forest 23– Middies have a poor defense but are 4-2 with high scoring shoot-outs/ball control. Wake defense/offense up and down.
Cincinnati 37, at Pittsburgh 17 – Panthers are not good. Cincinnati wants to get back to winning.
at Syracuse 32, Buffalo 23
at TCU 27, Utah 24
at BYU 42, Eastern Washington 16
New Mexico 34, at San Diego State 20
Colorado State 31, at UNLV 22
Nevada 45, at Utah State 35
at Fresno State 37, San Jose State 27
Boise State 38, at Louisiana Tech 17
at New Mexico State 37, Idaho 24
at Wisconsin 41, Northern Illinois 16
Miami (O.) 31, at Temple 20
Ball State 24, at Western Michigan 21
Bowling Green 27, at Kent State 23
Ohio 31, at Toledo 28
at Rice 20, Memphis 14
Tulsa 30, at UCF 28
at East Carolina 25, NC State 17
Houston 38, at UAB 17
Tulane 24, at SMU 17
Southern Miss 35, at Marshall 14
at Troy 41, North Texas 17
FAU 26, at UL-Lafayette 14
at UL-Monroe 28, FIU 13