PDA

View Full Version : OK, as usual here is my Top 50 adn recap/comments from yesterday's action


Jim
10-14-2007, 11:59 AM
:) For the second straight week LSU plays in a classic game. An inspired Kentucky who was humiliated by LSU last year 49-0 comes back in 3 OTs to edge the #1 ranked Tigers, 43-37, in Lexington. Had Kentucky lost this game in OT they could have held their heads up high and for whatever a “moral victory” is worth - they’d have had it. So, Kentucky is not a pretender/poser as many thought after South Carolina defeated them last week. During this game. The announcers said that last year after UK got crushed by LSU, Woodson gathered his offense around and said to them that this is “not who we are and not who we’re going to be”. How strong words can be huh? They’ve now gone 11-2 since that gathering. Next week Florida comes to Lexington and LSU hosts that pesky Auburn who continues to find ways to win after earlier having others find ways to beat them. The SEC as well as the Big East have made this season one of the most memorable (thus far at least). Whoever survives the SEC ought to get to the national championship regardless of their record as this conference is phenomenal and the ultimate champion blessed.

:confused::cool: :D California was #1 for just a few hours. I guess that is all a totally outmanned Oregon State needed to hear? I don’t know if the Beavers are taking steroids or are being genetically altered by aliens in the woods but it is pretty clear they had sharpened buck teeth and their tails had spikes as they tagged the Golden Bears. I didn’t see this game but I don’t think OSU ever trailed. If not aliens (those from space), is it something in the California air or coming across the border or what? Perhaps everything in spoken in Spanish now and they’re not bilingual so can’t get the signals right? USC, since opening day, has played like they don’t care or have memorized those press clippings and now California gets spanked. Has the non-competitiveness philosophy hit the football programs as well? Arizona almost beats USC in LA today, Stanford did beat them last week and now Oregon State, clearly from the lower tier in the Pac Ten wins against today’s #1 ranked team as well. Now that is twice in two weeks that the Pac Ten has been ranked #1 (even if just for hours in Cal’s case) and lost the game to a decided underdog. Oregon and Arizona State appear to be a bit more serious about whoever they’re playing as the Ducks crushed Washington State 53-7 and ASU neutered Washington 44-20. Now ASU and Oregon are supposed to win and win impressively => so they go out and do it. Neither one is a California school in a conference where the Pac Ten is only regarded as having had a successful season if a California school wins the title and gets a trip to THEIR bowl game in Pasadena.

:rolleyes: Now back to the SEC … Arkansas is basically eliminated from any SEC West consideration and may have to fight to achieve a winning season. In fact I think that, along with Callahan at Nebraska, Nutt is going to applying a Tyson’s for his next job – in January. Played sloppy football on offense but played pretty good defense until the final Auburn drive leading to a third field goal and a 9-7 win for the Tigers on the road. Mississippi and Alabama played this years border war with a hard fought game ending with the Crimson Tide holding on for a 27-24 win. Tennessee continues to win and is now back in the SEC East race with a hard fought 33-21 win at Miss. State. The MSU Bulldogs are losing games but are far more competitive this year and people have to work to beat them. Georgia won unimpressively on the road at Vanderbilt and appear to still be suffering from the trashing handed to them by Tennessee. My oh my, Pat Richt better get it together down at Georgia because the road is going to get really tough now (Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Auburn and Georgia Tech). South Carolina went to North Carolina on more of a recruiting trip and ended the Tar Heels’ winning streak at one game struggling for a 21-15 win. Spurrier is a hated man in Chapel Hill and the old ball coach continues to earn his “adoration” from the UNC crowd.

:eek: I actually believed that Purdue had made some changes to their usual mode of behavior. Now Michigan is a good team to be sure and I’ve tried to take nothing away from them. Purdue usually starts out with a promising season only to revert to their usual implosion once they face the more accomplished teams. Is Purdue this much of a pretender? It would be hard to argue otherwise. They’re a better team than this but their game preparation seems to get progressively worse as a season progresses. The Boilermakers actually kind of disgust me as they defy the law of averages about this time every year. You’d think they’d eventually get it together - at least once in a while?

Meanwhile, Ohio State continued to gain momentum on both sides of the ball in a 48-3 rout of Kent State. With losses by both LSU and California, the Buckeyes now move into the #1 position in the polls. Michigan State, who were surprised last week by Northwestern at home, turned back to their winning ways by crushing Indiana, 52-27. The Hoosiers had their Cinderella ride ended last week and now will start to fall towards a 7-5 or 6-6m season. Illinois, coming into Iowa after impressive wins over Penn State and Wisconsin, met the Hawkeyes’ frustration and were held in check as Iowa edged them out in Iowa City, 10-6. Perhaps Illinois was looking ahead to their game vs. Michigan next week?

It looks like those close games Wisconsin won earlier this year were actually telling us the Badgers were a bit overrated. The pre-season favorite to win the Big Ten (by many) lost a close game to Illinois last week in Champaign-Urbana and then went to Happy Valley we’re they looked like cheddar cheese being nuked in a microwave. The Lions probably played their best game of the year in a 38-7 win. This outcome was a complete surprise and places Penn State in more of a spoiler role (they’ve lost twice in Big Ten play). Perhaps their upcoming game with Ohio State will be major test #1 for the surging Buckeyes (at Michigan being #2). Illinois is a very good team but not there just yet. Iowa brought them back down to earth. Next week Michigan visits Illinois and the winner will wind up being in the Big Ten race till closing day in November.

:o The Big XII is in a state of flux it would appear. The northern division continues to be strong and balanced but Iowa State, Missouri and Nebraska all fell today with Kansas being the lone winner in inter-divisional games with a resounding 58-10 win over hapless Baylor. For the first time since 1960 Oklahoma State defeated Nebraska in Lincoln. On many occasions through the years the game up there went to the wire but the Huskers always managed to win. Now in the past four meetings between OSU and Nebraska, the Cowboys have won three times. I feel absolutely certain that even though Callahan got an extension through 2012, he will be canned after this year because his defense, which has given up 40 or more points four times this year, still has to face Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M and Colorado. Being 4-3 right now and a weak one at that, I can see them losing each of these games finishing up 1-7 in the Big XII (4-8 overall) and tied with Iowa State in the Big XII north cellar. A 10-3 year got Frank Solich fired. I think a 4-8 might get this guy an unmarked burial plot outside Lincoln’s city limits.

Kansas State, in all pre-game analysis, was going to have their hands full with a solid Colorado team that had won three in a row. The Wildcats, in an even more impressive manner than when they played Texas earlier, blasted Colorado 47-20 in Manhattan. Texas got back into the winning habit by totally manhandling Iowa State in Ames, 56-3 while Texas Tech picked Texas A&M’s defense apart in a 35-7 blasting in Lubbock. It would appear that the Red Raiders have found a defense as A&M prodded along but could never get untracked as Tech attacked them like a bunch of mosquitoes.

Oklahoma and Missouri traded surges all night long in Norman. Turnovers played a major factor for both teams leading to four touchdowns and a couple of field goals between the two teams. Missouri struck first and also scored twice in the 3rd quarter to take a temporary 24-23 lead. The Sooners secondary, even with three interceptions, was exploited by Chase Daniel and his receiving corps as they repeatedly converted on third down. The Sooners had success as well mostly through the air and late in the game with their running attack. For the first time I can recall OU missed four straight conversions after touchdown (one kick, twice on successive 2-point tries and then with a block after their last score). Their kick return game was non-existent. They have issues with special teams in my opinion and in close games this might spell defeat for them in the future.

:confused: So, it appears the Big East is still playing hot-potato as to who is going to emerge as the leader? Clearly, after today is South Florida who totally destroyed UCF, 64-12 and moved into the #3 position in my polls. I’d imagine they’ll be #3 in the real ones as well? Louisville, though a laughing stock in some circles, has always remained a very dangerous team. They are wounded and embarrassed. What better way to let others know you’re still around by going on the road and upsetting an undefeated, ranked team? Well, they did just that in knocking Cincinnati from the ranks of the unbeaten, 28-24. Also unbeaten and receiving absolutely no attention from anyone (like not being ranked), Connecticut went down, as an underdog, to a vastly improved Virginia and hung in there but fell one point short, 17-16. So, from three unbeatens in the Big East, we’er now down to just USF. This will be a Cinderella year for a team that has only fielded a football team for their 12th year. Earlier this decade they were practically a Division-IAA team - they could be headed for a national championship game if they keep up their winning ways? Pitt continued to sink as the Navy torpedoed them in a scoring fest at Pitt.

;) The ACC continues to boast Boston College with little notice being directed at Virginia Tech, Maryland and Virginia. Florida State, Miami, UNC revert back to losing. FSU's offense is but-ugly. Jimbo Fisher can't be calling this offense can he? The old man must have some serious veto power but if you bring in an aspiring OC from a winning program and tell him he'll be the man one day perhaps he'll pay his humbling dues on a bent knee, kissing the ring while Bobby continues in his struggle vs. Joe Pa up north?

Anyway, here are my rankings FWIW ...

My Top 50 teams

Top 25 = SEC: 7, Big XII: 5, Pac Ten: 4, Big Ten: 3, Big East: 3, ACC: 3
Teams 26-50 = Big Ten: 4, ACC: 4, Big XII: 4, Big East: 3, MWC: 3, Pac Ten: 2, WAC: 2, SEC: 1, CUSA: 1, Sun Belt: 1

(1) Ohio State - Routs Kent State as their offense and defense are in full synch.
(2) Oregon - Missed out on #1 ranking by a dropped ball at the flag marker. Ducks are rolling like Buckeyes.
(3) South Florida - Just slightly behind Oregon. Bulls stampede Knights 64-12 in champion fashion.
(4) Louisiana State - Play a second classic game in a row, losing to an inspired Kentucky. Still the team to beat in the SEC.
Oklahoma - Knock off undefeated #11th ranked Missouri. Still have issues with secondary and now, special teams.
(6) Boston College - Manage to stay ahead of an inspired Notre Dame in South Bend. Very good but beatable.
(7) South Carolina - Defeat an inspired North Carolina on the road. Hard road ahead in conference.
(8) Arizona State –bury Washington like they were expected to do. Take note USC, Cal.
(9) West Virginia - Manage to move up one notch even with a bye week due to USC and Cal.
(10) Kentucky - Move into Top Ten for a second time with major upset win over #1 LSU. Host Florida next week!!!

(11) California - Well, Oregon State is probably better than Stanford. Bears lose at home as well.
(12) Southern Cal - Win over Arizona at home in an unimpressively, 20-13.
(13) Auburn - “Cardiac kids” as Tigers come back on the road after late Arkansas rally.
(14) Florida - Lose one notch due to Kentucky and Auburn wins. In action next week at Kentucky, a “must watch” game.
(15) Kansas - Unbeaten Jayhawks rout Baylor as expected. Headed towards a showdown vs. Missouri in the finale.
(16) Michigan - Bury once beaten Purdue 48-21. Remain unbeaten in Big Ten play. Headed to showdown vs. Buckeyes.
(17) Tennessee - Those two blowout losses at Cal and at Florida keep them from rising higher at this time.
(18) Maryland – Not on the radar but a serious force to contend with in the ACC. Watch out.
(19) Cincinnati - Louisville, even with their failures is a dangerous team. Bearcats are upset at home by Brohm and Company.
(20) Missouri - An excellent game by the Tigers even in defeat. They’re practically unstoppable on offense.

(21) Texas Tech - Other than last minute loss to Okla. State, the Red Raiders are stomping everyone they play.
(23) Georgia - They defeat Vanderbilt but struggle in so doing, 20-17. Better get it together Richt as it only gets tougher.
(23) Penn State - Trounce once beaten Wisconsin 38-7 in Happy Valley. Now playing the role of “spoiler”.
(24) Virginia Tech - Finally getting some offense even if against lowly Duke. Hokies getting back into form. Beamerball !!!
(25) - Kansas State – trounce upstart Colorado 47-20. Prince has the Wildcats back on track.

Texas, Hawaii, Illinois, Virginia, Rutgers, Alabama, Wisconsin, Boise State, Michigan State, Connecticut, Purdue, Florida State, Clemson,
UCLA, Brigham Young, Texas A&M, Air Force, Georgia Tech, Colorado, Troy, Oregon State, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Tulsa, New Mexico

Blue Hen
10-14-2007, 12:21 PM
You're much better at recapping than prognosticating :-)

Jim
10-14-2007, 01:06 PM
:rolleyes: You're much better at recapping than prognosticating :-)

Cut me some slack. I'll do both (straight up and ATS spread). Didn't really concern myself with your urgings yesterday. But I'll give it a try once again. Hey, you know I'm not bad even ATS as I've been over 50% in your annual bowl predictions. Like Custer once said, "58% - not a problem".

kocurt
10-14-2007, 01:11 PM
You're much better at recapping than prognosticating :-)


Jim has the same problem I do. (though I am still in "God" status against the spread for the year) He is too emotionally involved to pick accurately and consistently. He constantly tries to overcompensate with OU and sells them short each and every week. I have learned that I enjoy indulging my fandom instead of trying to be "realistic" with my team.

Jim
10-14-2007, 01:25 PM
Jim has the same problem I do. (though I am still in "God" status against the spread for the year) He is too emotionally involved to pick accurately and consistently. He constantly tries to overcompensate with OU and sells them short each and every week. I have learned that I enjoy indulging my fandom instead of trying to be "realistic" with my team.

:D Emotionally involved"? Probably to an extent. But I'm not selling OU short let me assure you. They have some serious issues with their secondary and in their kick returning (specifically in punt returns) and now, thirdly, their special teams when it comes to simple conversions. Missouri moved at will when they didn't commit a turnover as did OU. Four TDs and 2 FGs were made directly off of the other guy's screw ups. Had either team not turned it over we'd have had another 3 OT game ending 53-52 game or something close to that. I can't sell a team short when their defense is as porous as OU's.

:cool: As to your ATS success - good for you and I hope you continue to win. Any secrets you want to share on that?

:eek: If not I might just go postal and run naked and screaming through the neighborhood !!! Yaaaahhhh !!!

kocurt
10-14-2007, 02:26 PM
:D Emotionally involved"? Probably to an extent. But I'm not selling OU short let me assure you. They have some serious issues with their secondary and in their kick returning (specifically in punt returns) and now, thirdly, their special teams when it comes to simple conversions. Missouri moved at will when they didn't commit a turnover as did OU. Four TDs and 2 FGs were made directly off of the other guy's screw ups. Had either team not turned it over we'd have had another 3 OT game ending 53-52 game or something close to that. I can't sell a team short when their defense is as porous as OU's.

:cool: As to your ATS success - good for you and I hope you continue to win. Any secrets you want to share on that?

:eek: If not I might just go postal and run naked and screaming through the neighborhood !!! Yaaaahhhh !!!

[/I]

I saw an OU defense that forced Mizzou into a ton of 3rd and longs and forced a lot of mistakes with great pressure on the QB. I saw a lot of play-makers on defense doing everything from pressuring, to sacking, to batting passes to just plain hitting the hell out of the Mizzou players. It didnt look pourous to me.
Kicking game? We got a guy with a CANNON for a leg. He can boot the ball a mile. Kick coverage was solid. The guy running at them leads the NATION in returns and he never broke a huge run. (he averages over 30yds which was his longest of the night).
The special teams unit did have some issues, but that was an abberation, not the norm. Special teams have always been a Stoops strength, so any drop off seems much bigger than it is.
The big Problem I saw was mental errors. (catching a punt on the 1 yard line, running the route short, etc.) Youth accounts for some of that, but I agree there is a deeper problem with the mental aspect of the game for the Sooners in that department.
Talent-wise, OU is even or above everyone in the nation. On thier best night OU can beat any other team on thier best night. They have that kind of potential. I went into this year thinking they were one season from contending for the title and I still do, but I LIKE most of what I see.

kocurt
10-14-2007, 02:29 PM
Oh, the secret to picking against the spread? Do a ton of research, take into account that they are a bunch of kids playing a game, calculate very closely the mental aspect of every game from fan pressure, to coaching changes, to arrogance, to confidence issues (good or bad), and look for individual mismatches that play to one team or anothers tendencies and style. Then pitch it all in the crapper and go with your gut.....

Blue Hen
10-15-2007, 12:49 AM
...and a couple things that I've learned over the years of mostly losing...like most everybody else :

*Check the weather forcast for the game locality. Bad weather, of course, favors dogs and 'unders'.

* Check the following week's opponent for mega favorites ( 35 + spreads). Most Head coaches aren't interested in keeping their starters in one sided games with tough opponents on the horizon....too risky. Playing mega dogs will hit 60% when the favorite has a tough game up next.....at least by my experience.

* Don't pay any attention, at all, to the popular polls in formulating your opinion of relative strength of teams. Polls are a joke.

* When looking over a teams season results, for betting angles, discard all but the last 2-3 games.....because teams change .


There you go, jim. We're trying to help you :-)

Like kocurt, I'm having an usually good season. Have hit two parlays in the last 3 weeks....playing all underdogs. Great season for taking points, so far.

The Slop Nazi
10-15-2007, 08:26 AM
:) Nutt is going to applying a Tyson’s for his next job

Not with Tyson my friend. John Tyson was just nominated to the board of trustees for the UA this past year, and he is NOT a Nutt fan. In fact, it was very shortly after Tyson's appointment to the board that Frank Broyles announced that he's stepping down after this football season. BTW.... Frank was FORCED out...... He wasn't ready to go. Also, fwiw, John Tyson and Butch Davis are childhood friends.

Jim
10-15-2007, 12:20 PM
[/I]

I saw an OU defense that forced Mizzou into a ton of 3rd and longs and forced a lot of mistakes with great pressure on the QB. I saw a lot of play-makers on defense doing everything from pressuring, to sacking, to batting passes to just plain hitting the hell out of the Mizzou players. It didnt look pourous to me.
Kicking game? We got a guy with a CANNON for a leg. He can boot the ball a mile. Kick coverage was solid. The guy running at them leads the NATION in returns and he never broke a huge run. (he averages over 30yds which was his longest of the night).
The special teams unit did have some issues, but that was an abberation, not the norm. Special teams have always been a Stoops strength, so any drop off seems much bigger than it is.
The big Problem I saw was mental errors. (catching a punt on the 1 yard line, running the route short, etc.) Youth accounts for some of that, but I agree there is a deeper problem with the mental aspect of the game for the Sooners in that department.
Talent-wise, OU is even or above everyone in the nation. On thier best night OU can beat any other team on thier best night. They have that kind of potential. I went into this year thinking they were one season from contending for the title and I still do, but I LIKE most of what I see.

Converted thoise 3rd and longs into 1st and 10's. And "great pressure on the QB" was very infrequent. Only happened when OU used four down linemen. As to the kicking game I am referring to (1) our punt return success and (2) to our inability to be "automatic" with a PAT. Potential? Absolutely, no argument from me. But putting that potential into practice isn't going as well as I'd hoped.