Jim vs Doc for 2009 PSEG-ATS title !!!

[Blue Hen]

Jim , 9-3, .750

Doc, 8-2-1, .773 ( Texas +5 )



Underdogs have covered in 22 of the 32 PSEGs so far. Don't be so anxious to give all those points away 3-5 weeks after the regular season . Things change.

[Jim]

I am confident that the Alabama OL will provide for McElroy and Ingram. I am also confident the Alabama DL will not allow a Texas rushing game to get established. McCoy can try to convince everybody and their kittens that he should have won the Heisman. I one looks at how two teams in particular, neither with much of an offense when they played Texas, in Oklahoma and Nebraska, could have both beaten Texas with only their defenses ... and then we have Texas A&M who moved at will on the Longhorns.

I realize it has been several weeks. Alabama recalls how their preparation fell flat last year. Texas should have lost to Ohio State last year when the star Buckeye RB was out in the second half. Horns barely won. Pressure is on both teams. And Alabama has never beaten Texas. They're aware of that and would surely like to end that dismal streak. Texas will have it moments make no mistake about that. But the Crimson Tide is a body puncher and after a while the other guy just gets exhausted.

ROLL TIDE ROLL !!!

[Doc]

Here's my take...

McCoy is 3-0 in bowl games, McElroy is a first year starter. Ingram won the Heisman and Heisman winners haven't fared too well recently, McCoy looked like crap against Nebraska which probably cost him the Heisman. Bama has a great defense but Texas' isn't too shabby. I think the experience and familiarity of McCoy and Shipley will be the difference. Of course, I think Florida would blast Boise State so what do I know?!

[Jim]

I agree with you Doc in that Texas has been very successful this decade in bowl games (lost to Oregon in 2000 and Wash. State in 2003) so they're a very impressive, 7-2 in the post season. I know McCoy will get some runs and Shipley will haul in some passes. But I do recall that both Oklahoma and Nebraska totally shut down that McCoy-Shipley connection except for maybe a couple of passes. They also shut down McCoy's happy feet. Bama is well aware of those highly successful combinations etc.

Yes, Heisman winners usually apply a curse to their teams in the post season. I think that streak breaks on Thursday night. The Crimson Tide is a patient, methodical and surgical team. If something appears to be lacking then some other aspect of their offense or defense rises to the occasion. Tennessee and Auburn both challenged Alabama so the defense rose when the offense stalled.

Texas, on the other hand, seems to get frantic and waits for the other team to make a grave error. Quite often weaker competition will afford you that grave mistake. In Oklahoma's case it was two late interceptions tossed by an inexperienced OU QB who never expected to take the field that day. In Nebraska's case it pretty much failed for them with a terrible kickoff and one completion to Shipley following the Huskers taking a 12-10 lead with two minutes to go.

Alabama has played under much more pressure this year tha has Texas. Other teams lost games resulting in Texas wins. That is the difference in my opinion.

[Blue Hen]

Good stuff guys. This is exciting.

[aufan59]

Good stuff guys. This is exciting.

Just curious, you say selectivity is the key to picking ATS, but criticize Jim's regular season picks that are below .500. It seems as though he picks the spread for every single game as a part of his in depth analysis.

I think Jim has proven to be an excellent at capping when he is selecting from a pool of games, instead of trying to cap them all.

[Doc]

an SEC team in a bowl game, Alabama is 0-7-1 lifetime against Texas!!! I know how all you huys love stats like this one...

Again, I think the experience of McCoy will prove to be the difference maker.

[Jim]

Well I never ... thanks much Aufan for the kudos as I usually get laughed at with my picks. Honestly, I'm surprised I covered for LSU, Northwestern and Stanford when I look back.

Hopefully I'll get better and by entering the contest I contrvied for 2010, I will be limited to only the five picks like others. Hopefully that will remedy my going overboard so often. I'm looking forward to your participation as well as Hen's.

For most of the season I actually thought the "AU" part of your handle was for "Alabama". Clearly I'm mistaken. I'll be sure to sit on the proper side of the bus when boarding when in the great state of Alabama. I think that will depend on how close I am to Tuscaloosa or Auburn. I know its serious down there so I will exercise survival judgement.

[Blue Hen]

??. Jim was .423 this `regular season and about 40% also in 08. Even If one intentially tried to pick ATS losers I doubt if anyone could do that poorly.

However , Jim has been good in the post season ...really good this post season. I think he'll do better next season because he has learned not to overload on favorites. If He'd pick 4 or 5 games a week rather than 10 or more he'd also improve, IMO. His contest will be interesting.

[Hubbs]

I tend to think alabama should beat Texas, but people basing it off of how Texas played Nebraska need to look at how alabama did against their two biggest rivals UT and Auburn. In the second half of their game UT was able to shutdown alabama's offense.At one point Tennessee ran 24 plays to the tides 6. Also this season was the worst Auburn defense in the history of Auburn. No joke! Auburn was able to shut down the running attack of alabama.

The reason I bring up those games is this. Texas can stop alabama if Auburn and Tennessee did. The difference is which team starts to press and force things when nothing is there. I think that may be the best asset to saban's coaching style. His team doesn't make many mistakes and capitalizes when the opponent does.

My prediction is 16-10 bammer. I do think McCoy is the wild card. How he plays determines how Texas plays.