OK...I got 15 spots left

[Lincoln Tower]

For the dance...
Maybe Todd can put a sticky on this, and I can update as teams fall in or out, based on board concensus. It could be our own projection of the field. Something to get this board rolling, as it were.

IN
1.) UNC
2.) BC
3.) VPI
4.) UVA
5.) Texas A&M
6.) Kansas
7.) Texas
8.) Louisville
9.) Pitt
10.) Georgetown
11.) Marquette
12.) Maryland
13.) Wisconsin
14.) tOSU
15.) Indiana
16.) Memphis
17.) Butler
18.) SIU
19.) Creighton
20.) Missouri St.
21.) Old Dominion
22.) UNLV
23.) UCLA
24.) Wazzu
25.) USC
26.) Oregon
27.) ‘Zona
28.) Florida
29.) Kentucky
30.) Nevada
31.) Stanford
32.) Notre Dame
33.) BYU
34.) Duke
35.) Michigan State
36.) Vandy
37.) Syracuse
38.) Tennessee
39.) Penn
40.) Xavier
41.) Villanova
42.) Belmont
43.) Winthrop
44.) Davidson
45.) E. Kentucky
46.) Gonzaga
47.) VCU
48.) Niagra
49.) North Texas
50.) Oral Roberts
51.) Wright State
52.) Central Connecticut State
53.) Weber State
54.) Albany
55.) Long Beach State
56.) Miami, Oh
57.) Florida A&M
58.) Holy Cross
59.) Southland Champ
60.) Jackson State
61.) George Washington
62.) New Mexico State
63.) Kansas State
64.) Drexel
65.) Purdue

OUT
FSU
Air Force
Texas Tech
Ga Tech
Illinois
Appalachian State

[HellYeahHokie]

I can't really understand how you've laid these teams out.

[Lincoln Tower]

The first 30 are teams that, IMO, will be there regardless. Then the list of conferences, 20 of them, that will only send the tourney champion. Which would leave 15 more at large spots.

Then the not numbered list of all teams I think still have any kind of at large chance. I'll delete my picks of the last 15 , because I think that does confuse things

[HellYeahHokie]

I think that Gonzaga will make it in, based on their strong schedule. If Duke wins just have of their remaining games, they will be in based on quality wins too, and quite frankly, because they are Duke. Clemson is also a team that might make it in if they finish strong.

But I know that's 2 extra ACC teams, when only 4 were selected last year. I don't know if the ACC is a 6-team conference this year. I think you can write off FSU and Maryland at this point.

Of course, there are still some major conference battles still to be played, including tournaments, so the bubble really doesn't get defined until the beginning of tournament time.

[mini_me]

I think that Gonzaga will make it in, based on their strong schedule. If Duke wins just have of their remaining games, they will be in based on quality wins too, and quite frankly, because they are Duke. Clemson is also a team that might make it in if they finish strong.

But I know that's 2 extra ACC teams, when only 4 were selected last year. I don't know if the ACC is a 6-team conference this year. I think you can write off FSU and Maryland at this point.

Of course, there are still some major conference battles still to be played, including tournaments, so the bubble really doesn't get defined until the beginning of tournament time.


I dont know... if Gonzaga loses to Memphis I think they will have to win there conference tournment to get in. They do have some notable wins but they also have a lot of losses.


I guess Im not so sure I total agree with the duke thing either. They have a pretty tough road ahead of them yet. Based on how they are playing right now you'd have to believe @ BC is probably a loss, GT already beat them once so doing it again isnt out of the realm of possibility. They barely beat clemson at home(2 point win) and doing it on the road is a potential loss. They probably beat St Johns but they finish with Maryland who SMOKED them.

I wouldnt be at all surpised if Duke only wins 1 out of the last 5 games they have... that means they have to have a strong showing in the ACC tourny

[HellYeahHokie]

I think with any of these predictions, the assumption is that these bubble teams will make it if they finish strong. Certainly Duke won't go if they tank the rest of the way, and neither will Gonzaga.

That's why I said you can't really define these bubble scenarios until just before the conference tournaments. Too many key games left for all teams. Those that tank are out. Those that finish strong will have a good case.

[NCT]

After Mike Mercer's (UGA's second-leading scorer) gruesome, season-ending injury last week and the home scare tonight against Kennesaw State (who? exactly.), it looks like we're ready to slide off that bubble into oblivion.

I'll just pray for strong showings against Auburn and Mississippi State at home, but we've also got to travel to Oxford and Lexington and finish with Tennessee in Athens. Ah well, it's a young team.

[Lincoln Tower]

I took George Washington off. Wichita STate and Wright State are likely not far behind......

Close to making Duke a lock. But not quite yet. If they get to 8-8 in ACC, its a slam dunk.

[H.I.]

why did you knock wright state off the bubble? i'm not saying that they belong on the bubble because of their r.p.i, but they won last night, the game before that knocked off #9 butler and lead the horizon over one of your locks, that pesky butler team again. and to boot, they've won 8 straight and 16 of their last 19. just doesn't make much sense to knock them off the bubble when they haven't done anything to justify it since you started this thread a day ago. they probably won't get in if they don't win the horizon tournament, but until they lose they're definitely still on the bubble.

[Lincoln Tower]

Honestly, I debated even putting them in there in the first place. Beating Butler is the only thing on their resume, with some BRUTAL non-conference losses. If Butler loses again in conference, then Wright State might have an argument by winning their regular season crown.

Short of that, I think the entire ACC and SEC would have to have their bubble teams miss out.

Regardless, they got a good shot at winning the HL title, and if they do make the tourney, would be a tough out.

[Lincoln Tower]

Missouri State still satys as a lock, but if Winthrop can go undefeated in the Big South, they have an argument. So I add them.

[Lincoln Tower]

Louisville and Stanford get bumps up to lock staus.

Vandy is all but there, but I wanna see another win just because their non-conference debacle (loses to Wake and Furman?). 2-2 in their last 4 would be a stone cold lock. 1-3 should still get them in.

OK State, meanwhile, gets bumped down, and they are in serious, serious, serious trouble...

[Lincoln Tower]

Notre Dame, at 9 BE wins, gets a lock status now.

[H.I.]

OK State, meanwhile, gets bumped down, and they are in serious, serious, serious trouble...

i really like this okie state team. for some reason i think they're one of those teams that if they can just get in they could make a run to the elite eight. there's always seems to be one of those teams. i just read on espn.com that ok state doesn't have a true road win all year. that's crazy if you really think about it. but most of these bcs school aren't exactly known as road warriors.

[Lincoln Tower]

They did beat Pitt at a "neutral site" of OK City. They certainly have talent, but are trending in the wrong direction. Have played 2 dbl OT games and a 3 OT game. Thats basically an extra game, all against quality opponents. Maybe it's wearing them down, as they weren't a good road team to begin with.

[Lincoln Tower]

How much was Duke on the bubble? Well it looked like a 7-9 or even 6-10 ACC record was possible which would mean bubble trouble. But with at least 8-8 in conference, their OOC is too good. Will likely be seeded ahead of teams that I had as "locks" ahead of them.

BYU gets into lock mode, also. While their OOC schedule still stinks, they are currently 2 games up on AFA and UNLV with three to play. Yes, 2 of those are at SDSU and at AFA, but even a co-champ would be enough. If they lost their last 4, they would be in trouble. But that won't happen.

Wright State losing knocks them out. They needed to run the table until losing a close one to Butler in the HL tourney final for any shot. If they do win the tourney, however, I wouldn't want to be the 4/5 seed that plays them.

Xavier and Maryland are getting close. If Xavier wins out, they have to be in. If MD beats either Duke or UNC, it's a no brainer. I think a win over NC State in the finale and a first round in the ACC Tourney gets them in. I think Illinois and Kansas State are close too.

In order to further eliminate teams, Hofstra, Drexel, FSU, Oklahoma and Washington all go. Bradley is close. They must beat Indiana St and then win a game or two in the tourney. Clemson is close to NIT as well.

The Iowa-Purdue game Wedensday is a microcosm of the bubble this season. The team ready to feel very good about its chances (Purdue) loses to a team that is all but dead (Iowa), keeping them both on the bubble. The BE, B10, SEC, ACC and even the B12 are still too fuzzy to really eliminate anyone from those conferences. Hopefully, we can knock some of teams out this weeked.

[H.I.]

Wright State losing knocks them out. They needed to run the table until losing a close one to Butler in the HL tourney final for any shot. If they do win the tourney, however, I wouldn't want to be the 4/5 seed that plays them.

tonight's loss vs. ysu really hurt their bubble chances, even though they probably didn't have one in the first place. but with butler losing to ill-chicago with a game to play, wsu clinched at least a share of the HL title and the #1 seed in the post season tournament.

i wonder if there has even been a situation like this one before. where a team doesn't win its on conference but gets an at-large bid to the ncaa tournament while the regular season champ sits at home. this is like nebraska vs. colorado in 2001 for the national title game all over again.

[HellYeahHokie]

I think there have been numerous occassions when a 1-bid conference takes only the tourney champion, and not the regular season champion. Certainly in the days before expansion to 64 teams, but I think since then it has happened too. Certainly if the regular season champion had a weak RPI, they aren't going to get consideration.

[H.I.]

I think there have been numerous occassions when a 1-bid conference takes only the tourney champion, and not the regular season champion. Certainly in the days before expansion to 64 teams, but I think since then it has happened too. Certainly if the regular season champion had a weak RPI, they aren't going to get consideration.

yeah, i understand that. but has a conference sent an AT-LARGE and not its regular season conference champ to the ncaa's? this is odd situation. a team that's basically been a lock for the ncaa tournament since december, but didn't win (or won't win outright) their league while the 21 win regular season champ has no chance at getting an at-large. even if somebody other than butler or wsu wins the HL tournament - butler more than likely will be in the ncaa's along with the HL tournament champions while the regular season champ of a 2-bid league sits at home. weird.

[HellYeahHokie]

I could see it happening.

In 2004, Virginia Tech finished 4th in the ACC, but didn't get invited to the NCAAs. However the 5th place team (and maybe the 6th place team) did get an invitation due to the Hokies weak performace out of the conference.

It's not quite the same situation as a conference champion of course, but it does show that you just don't get an automatic invitation because you finished ahead of a team that did get an invitation.

Has it ever happened with a champion? I don't know.

[Lincoln Tower]

There's a similar situation in the Colobial Athletic Association (George Mason's conference). Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth both are bubble teams. ODU has a much better RPI, and a "signature" win over Georgetown. They also beat Toledo, who VCU lost to. But VCU is a game up in the CAA with a game to play. If they win against Georgia St., they clinch it. But what if neither wins the the tourney? Who would be the first to get an at-large?

Actually, there is a similar situation in 3rd and 4th in that division. Hofstra lead Drexel by a game, but Drexel has a far superior resume, with wins AT Syracuse, Villanove and Creighton. I am going to put Drexel back on my board, after reviewing this.

Such a crowded bubble.

[H.I.]

There's a similar situation in the Colobial Athletic Association (George Mason's conference). Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth both are bubble teams. ODU has a much better RPI, and a "signature" win over Georgetown. They also beat Toledo, who VCU lost to. But VCU is a game up in the CAA with a game to play. If they win against Georgia St., they clinch it. But what if neither wins the the tourney? Who would be the first to get an at-large?

Actually, there is a similar situation in 3rd and 4th in that division. Hofstra lead Drexel by a game, but Drexel has a far superior resume, with wins AT Syracuse, Villanove and Creighton. I am going to put Drexel back on my board, after reviewing this.

Such a crowded bubble.

yeah, it almost happened in the caa last season. uncw and george mason tied for 1st last season at 15-3 but uncw received the #1 seed in the caa tournament due to tie-breakers. hofstra ended up beating george mason in the caa semi's and went on to lose to uncw in the caa finals.

here's where it gets interesting, the caa was pretty much going to get 2 teams in the tournament. george mason and the caa tournament champion. but had hofstra beaten uncw in the caa finals i'd be willing to bet good money uncw would've been left at home even though they finished tied for first, got the #1 seed, and had an rpi of 27.

[Lincoln Tower]

Arkansas and Clemson both fall to 9 conference losses, so they leave, but Maryland, Vandy and Michigan State all get monster wins, putting them all in lock mode. WVU now finds itself in trouble, so I take them down, but I think splitting between at Pitt and home to Cincy to end the regular season should be enough.

Xavier, Kansas State, Illinois, Tennessee and Syracuse are my next five closest to lock mode. The SEC and Big Ten need to sort themselves out to give a better picture after those five. I'll add Mississippi State onto the watch list just because, well, who knows in the SEC....

Watch out for San Diego State. They could win the MWC tourney. MWC getting 4 in?

[Lincoln Tower]

Syracuse is now dancin'

[Lincoln Tower]

Tennessee is in.

[H.I.]

Syracuse is now dancin'

sad when a team can beat somebody like georgetown and is now considered a lock. old dominion beat gerogetown earlier in the season, is 10-0 in its last 10 while syracuse is 4-6 and old dominion's rpi is 34 and syracuse's 49. i'm not saying odu deserves to go to the ncaa - because if last year is any indication the committee has shown they'll leave out a top 20 rpi - but they're much more deserving than syracuse this year.

[H.I.]

tower,

what's your take on texas? i'm sure they'll get in on name recognition alone, but their profile is pretty weak. sagarin has them at 27, rpi at 37. but they're 0'fer vs. the top-50 (0-5). the next highest team that's 0'fer vs. the top-50 is davidson at 54. then you have vcu at 60, akron at 66, oklahoma at 69 and uconn at 70. pretty weak profile when you're one of only 3 teams ranked in the top 65 that doesn't have a win vs. top-50 competition.

[Lincoln Tower]

In Syracuse's case, it wasn't like they were nowhere near the bubble, then all of a sudden are a Lock. Granted, their best OOC win was Hofstra, but I thought they were very close, and winning one of Georgetown or Villanova would get them to 10 conference wins. I saw a stat that only 1 eligbile team in the least 10 years or so has won 10 conference games in of the BCS leagues and not made it (Iowa in....98 maybe). They've also locked up 5th in a conference they always get more than 5. Probably looking at an 8-9 game, but they are in. And remember Georgetown was on an 11 game winning streak and will likely be the #1 seed in the BE tourney.

Texas has the same deal. I didn't know they were w/o a top 50 win, but look at their losses. The worst 2 are to Gonzaga and a 3OT defeat at Oklahoma State back when the Cowboys were 15-2. So no bad losses. They have 11 wins in the B12. That will always get you in. They still have games with Kansas and Texas A&M left, so they could still win at least a share of the B12 regular season title, which usually gives you a 3 seed at the worst. Right now, Lunardi has them as a 7. If the win both those games, they would be a 3 at best, and maybe close to a five. So their OOC certainly isn't that good, but their conference work is too good to keep them out.

And FWIW, if ODU wins their CAA quarters game, I think they'll be in, and should definitely be in if the beat Hofstra in the semis. If it's a Drexel-Hofstra final, I wonder if they could get 4 teams in if Hofstra wins. Or if they could get 3?

[HellYeahHokie]

I don't think Syracuse is a lock, just with a win over Georgetown. I think after Nova's win last night, the matchup between Syracuse and Nova might be for the final spot. Syracuse has a weak RPI, and Villanova's is Top 20. If Nova beat's Syracuse, I think the Cats are in and the Orange are out. If Syracuse wins, they might be a lock, and Villanova might need to do some damage in the tournament. WVU is most certainly out after another loss.

[Lincoln Tower]

That would mean only 6 bids for the Big East, which I find a bit hard to believe. And if Nova beats Syracuse, they'd be tied for 6th at best, having only split with Cuse.

I am pretty sure Cuse will make it, and Nova will likely make, regardless of what happens Saturday. WVU is still very much in play, and Providence and even Seton Hall still have remote at large chances (although, I stress remote).

With a poor OOC, Cuse's seed isn't going to be very high but 5th in the BE will get them in.

[Doc]

Syracuse, Michigan and Georgia Tech have all pulled off 'big wins' this week. Going into the games, most were saying they were on the wrong side of the bubble. Following the wins, commentators are saying the win(s) might be enough to put them in the tournament. Tourney bids should not be based on one win...it should be for an entire body of work and to me; Syracuse, Michigan and GT have been far too inconsistent to deserve a bid. So one win puts a borderline team into the tournament while a team like Xavier, who has a better record and RPI than all three of these teams, has to virtually win their conference tourney to get a bid. The Muskies have won 7 in a row, they beat Illinois, Villanova and Kansas State and will most likely be the regular season A-10 champ. I'd take them over all three of the above teams on a neutral court. Hopefully they'll get a bid but I have a feeling if they slip up in the A-10, they'll be NIT bound while one of the teams above gets a bid based on one win which came on their home courts.

[Lincoln Tower]

Worth noting, if Xavier closes things against La Salle, I am putting them in my lock category. If they win and UMass loses, then they win the #10 RPI conference outright with a slew of good OOC victories, then there's no way they can't be in.

If UMass had lost an extra game or 2, and Xavier had already clinched the A-10 I think they'd be a lock already. Right now, Lunardi has them in an 8-9 game., so they are closer to lock than NIT.

Oh, and Penn is the first team actually in.

[Lincoln Tower]

Davidson and Winthrop get off the bubble, winning their conference tournaments. Appalachian State is very interesting. Beat Virginia, UCF, Vandy, Virginia Commonwealth, Wichita State in Bracket Busters, and gave Davidson ther only conference lost AT Davidson. Many think they are done after a loss in the SoCon semis. They had the #7 OOC RPI. Overall, they're at 63. I think they are close.

Interesting happenings in the A10 and CAA. Umass and Xavier both go 13-3 and split the A10. Xavier has the better overall profile, and won the only HTH meeting at home. UMass has only 1 top 50 win (Lousiville). I think Xavier is in, and if they square off in the tourney final, they both will be in.

CAA now looks like it will be a 2 bid league. VCU plays Drexel in one semi (elimination game?) and ODU is a win over George Mason from the finals. If ODU wins I believe the two teams in the finals make it. If not...then we'll see. But right now, I say ODU and the VCU/Drexel game gets in.

[Lincoln Tower]

Seeing as how Gonzaga actually won WCC, I'll put them back up. But I don't like their chances.

Providence and Bama fall off.

[Lincoln Tower]

Geez, what is up with the CAA. Heading into today, the pecking order, IMO anyway, went ODU, Drexel, Vcu, and ODU and Drexel would win, solidify bids for both and eventually leaving otu VCU.

Of course, both lose, and VCU looks pretty solid. I still think the CAA gets at least 2. They swept Drexel now, and finished 3 games ahead of them in the CAA regular season, so they are definitely ahead of them now, despite a weaker OOC.

If VCU wins, it would be hard to differentiate between ODU and Drexel. Could there be three? If GMU wins, then VCU gets a bid, and again could both Drexel and ODU go? Very interesting. The best I can say is the VCU is close to being in, regardless of what happens.

[H.I.]

the caa is one huge cluster f@@k. i think they'll get 2 no matter who wins the caa tournament. if vcu wins i just don't see how you can leave drexel out. and odu's profile is pretty nice too compared to the other bubble teams from major conferences. i guess it is possible to get 3 teams in but i wouldn't bet on it. if the caa gets lucky and does secure 3 bids i look forward to watching billy packer busting a spring next sunday.

[Lincoln Tower]

Honestly, if GMU wins, and just about every other bubble team loses early in their tourneys, could the CAA get 4? I think the pecking order goes VCU first and ODU/Drexel close to each other. Both should probably be pulling for VCU to win. As I said, VCU has to be over Drexel right now. ODU could be the last one in and Drexel the last out. It's that close, IMO....

[Lincoln Tower]

Off come Gonzaga and VCU (good) and OK State (bad)

[Lincoln Tower]

Wow. Butler, Xavier and Nevada pull off the doomsday scenario for bubble teams. 3 Bids disappear, and really, of my remaining "at large candidates" I can't say that I feel good about any of them. I only have 3 spots left.

In fact, many people of have Missouri State, AFA and Stanford on the bubble. I won't take Missouri State out, because I would go so far as to have them in an 8-9 game. It's looking like they'll eventaully be out, but not on my bracket. I still think AFA is in, and if I took AFA out Zoom would have a heart attack, so I'll leave them there. But I think Stanford is in trouble. I am not taking them out of lock, because I think the P10 should get 6, but I have a feeling, like Missouri State, they'll be in the NIT. But if Memphis loses, or OKie State wins the B12 or one of the West division teams wins the SEC, then one of them might go down.

If it was up to me, I'd have ODU, Drexel and App State as the last three, and only knock one out by a stolen auto bid. As of now, Ill bet the three go to one of TTech/Kansas State, one of Illinois/Purdue, and one of ODU/Drexel, and I'd guess K State, Illinois and ODU get them. And then Purdue and Drexel take away the ones from Missouri State and Stanford. So Texas Tech and Ga Tech, I think you'll end up being out.

If Missouri State, Appalachian State, ODU and Drexel all get left out, it'll be tragic.

[Lincoln Tower]

Well, everyone has Air Force off, so they are gone. That leaves four. ODU and Kansas State are going to be two of them. Purdue and Drexel will be the last two in, but one or both would get knocked out if Arkansas or NC State win tommorrow.

So Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, FSU, Illinois, AFA and Appalachian State are my last 6 teams out. ODU, Drexel, Purdue, Kansas State, Stanford, are my last 6 in. Those 12 should divide up, in whatever fashion, the last 6 spots.