ACC Football

[GatorGrad]

Interesting articles:

http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/10267107/1

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/football/ncaa/2007/07/acc-how-low-can-you-go.html

Alarming stats from these articles:

* Last season, the ACC went 6-16 against opponents from other BCS conferences (1-7 vs SEC.)

* The conference is 3-31 against top-10 opponents since 2000.

* Its league champion has lost in its bowl game seven straight years.

* The league is 1-8 in BCS bowls, the only victory being Florida State's 2000 Sugar Bowl win.

Is this the year that the ACC turns it around? There is no excuse for being this bad when you have schools like FSU, Miami, VaTech, Clemson, BC, GaTech, etc. When the ACC added BC, Miami, and VaTech a few years ago, I honestly thought that they would be one of the top BCS Conferences. It is very surprising to me how bad it has been thus far.

[copycat]

It would be hard to argue that the ACC hasn't been the "dominant conference" everyone projected to be so far, but it has been very competitive. You don't see the teams getting blown out often. In the BCS games since FSU's win in the 2000 Sugar Bowl, there's been one blowout (Florida vs Maryland in the 2002 Orange Bowl), the other six have been decided by a total of 43 points.

I remember last year everyone though Wake Forest would get blown out by Louisville, and 11 points isn't exactly a blowout in my mind.

Same thing for GT and West Virginia for last year's Gator Bowl. Same for FSU and Penn State in the Orange Bowl two years ago. Same for Virginia Tech and undefeated Auburn three years ago.

Part of the main issue is the ACC hasn't had a clear "top" team in recent years. FSU has won the title once since expansion, and that was due to upsetting VT in the title game. VT has been the best choice, but one or two meltdowns a year seals it for them. Miami has found life tougher in the ACC but hasn't been "The U" as before (similar to FSU's decline, just a little later starting).

Last year certainly wasn't going to be a year to shine for the conference after losing so much top talent to the NFL.

There are some pretty good coaches in the league now. It'll be interesting to see how the next couple of years play out. This year may not be so good with all the new hires adjusting to their schools.

[Blue Hen]

Then again........if you look at the bigger, overall picture :

Inter-Conference BCS success rates (BCS era, 98-06)

.543 - ACC
.524 - P10
.500 - SEC
.497 - B10
.479 - B12
.386 - BEC

Now these #s are only based on current conference configuration but include all inter-bcs games while in any conference.

[GatorGrad]

Good numbers, Hen. Giving the ACC credit for Miami's pre-ACC day wins during their strong era from 99-03 certainly would help! :)

The point of the articles were that expansion has not led to a dominant conference as many (myself included) projected. So you really have to stick to recent years. What the ACC did in the 90's, especially what Miami/VT/BC did before they were in the ACC, really are not relevant to how the ACC has performed since expansion.

[Blue Hen]

Oh sure, I agree....the ACC hasn't been too powerful in past few seasons, but back to that inter-BCS stuff...even if you take Miami, VT & BC out of that data you still have this ACC inter-BCS record :

UVA, 9-8
WF, 7-5
FSU, 11-13
MD, 7-5
NC St., 8-3
Duke, 0-10
GT, 10-7
UNC, 4-11
Clem, 9-8

.480 (just 2% worse than SEC) w/o VT, Mia & BC
.543 w/ BC, VT & Miami

The ACC is doin ok. The conference has winning PSEG records (all time) vs B10, B12, BE..........and its champions are 24-24 all time in PSEGs. although you pointed the recent losing streak. Also a collective .535 PSEG success rate based on CCC.

....I defend all leagues

[GatorGrad]

....I defend all leagues

Please defend the Big East...

[Blue Hen]

Ok, some BEC defense

First and foremost, the BE toys with the SEC in PSEGs...true story ( 12-6-1 )
The BE is, also, .667 vs B10 in PSEGs. .583 vs B12 ( based on CCC)

I think the BEC has the best PSEG record in the 2000s .. ,among Cartel leagues. (based on ACC)

[GatorGrad]

How did I know that your first point would be their bowl record vs the SEC?

:)

[tigercpa]

Interesting articles:

http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/10267107/1

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/football/ncaa/2007/07/acc-how-low-can-you-go.html

Alarming stats from these articles:

* Last season, the ACC went 6-16 against opponents from other BCS conferences (1-7 vs SEC.)

* The conference is 3-31 against top-10 opponents since 2000.

* Its league champion has lost in its bowl game seven straight years.

* The league is 1-8 in BCS bowls, the only victory being Florida State's 2000 Sugar Bowl win.

Is this the year that the ACC turns it around? There is no excuse for being this bad when you have schools like FSU, Miami, VaTech, Clemson, BC, GaTech, etc. When the ACC added BC, Miami, and VaTech a few years ago, I honestly thought that they would be one of the top BCS Conferences. It is very surprising to me how bad it has been thus far.

It's just that BRUTAL ACC schedule, you know...beating each other up... :-)

["14-O" U.]

...
I remember last year everyone though Wake Forest would get blown out by Louisville, and 11 points isn't exactly a blowout in my mind.

Same thing for GT and West Virginia for last year's Gator Bowl. Same for FSU and Penn State in the Orange Bowl two years ago.
...

Same for FSU and Penn State in the Orange Bowl two years ago?

Everyone did not think either team would blow the other out in that game. It was the battle of incompetence (no, not incontinence, though with Bobby and JoePa that one would probably end in a "blowout" :) ).

I like how many said that game was a defensive struggle. It was more of an offensive struggle (and truely offensive at that).

[Don]

Then again........if you look at the bigger, overall picture :

Inter-Conference BCS success rates (BCS era, 98-06)

.543 - ACC
.524 - P10
.500 - SEC
.497 - B10
.479 - B12
.386 - BEC

Now these #s are only based on current conference configuration but include all inter-bcs games while in any conference.

Here are the interconference vs major/bcs records for 2000-06
Pac-10 (66-60-0)--0.52381
SEC (68-65-0)--0.51128
Big 12 (59-62-0)--0.48760
Big Ten (76-80-0)--0.48718
ACC (73-79-0)--0.48026
Big East (63-70-0)--0.47368
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cfbtrivia/record.php?fry=2000&thy=2006&ncnf=on&major=on&fcn=on

For 1998-1999
ACC (25-16-0)--0.60976
Big Ten (24-17-0)--0.58537
Big 12 (17-20-0)--0.45946
SEC (15-18-0)--0.45455
Pac-10 (15-18-0)--0.45455
Big East (15-23-0)--0.39474
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cfbtrivia/record.php?fry=1998&thy=1999&ncnf=on&major=on&fcn=on


Notice that with the exception of the Big East the sets are inverted.

For 1998-06
Pac-10 (81-78-0)--0.50943
ACC (98-95-0)--0.50777
Big Ten (100-97-0)--0.50761
SEC (83-83-0)--0.50000
Big 12 (76-82-0)--0.48101
Big East (78-93-0)--0.45614
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cfbtrivia/record.php?fry=1998&thy=2006&ncnf=on&major=on&fcn=on

So, using the span originally stated, the ACC hasn't performed very well OOC.

[Don]

Ok, some BEC defense

First and foremost, the BE toys with the SEC in PSEGs...true story ( 12-6-1 )
The BE is, also, .667 vs B10 in PSEGs. .583 vs B12 ( based on CCC)

I think the BEC has the best PSEG record in the 2000s .. ,among Cartel leagues. (based on ACC)

Here's what I get
Big Ten (2-1-0)--0.66667
SEC (6-6-0)--0.50000
ACC (11-12-0)--0.47826
Pac-10 (2-3-0)--0.40000
Big 12 (3-5-0)--0.37500
http://www.sportslinknetwork.com/cfbtrivia/record.php?fry=1900&thy=2006&confname=Big%20East&ncnf=on&bowl=on&vcn=on

[HellYeahHokie]

I think its fair to say that nobody expected FSU and Miami to fall so far. VT has been performing about what was expected. I don't think anyone predicted UVA would fall so far either (except for Hokie fans who've watched Al Groh sink George Welch's ship). NCSU's ship was sinking prior to expansion. It just wasn't obvious yet how badly Chuckie could coach. The rest of the teams are performing about the same way they were pre-expansion. Clemson and GT are always good for a few good wins (and some head-scratching losses). Duke sucks. That's a given.

Wake Forest last season has been the only real surprise other than FSU's and Miami's fall from grace.

But UNC has Butch Davis. Bobby finally got rid of his son as OC. And Miami is talented as always, and might respond to this new coach.

So the ACC definitely hasn't lived up to its expectation, but perhaps in a year or two, it will be back to normal.

[Blue Hen]

list what games ? The BE/SEC PSEGs or the BE PSEGs in the 2000s ?

The Sportslink data your lookin at doesn't seem to be related.

[Blue Hen]

Praising the BE is a bit more of challange...so I had to start with that data :-)

[Blue Hen]

It's talent level, at least by NFL standards, is about with the top 4 conferences so maybe it is the coaching. The 7 consecutive PSEG losses by the ACC champs.......not very impressive.

[GatorGrad]

Sorry, but I don't buy into the Big East hype. I'm not sold on Rutgers, and I think it's just a two-team conference with Lville and WVU. Until Syracuse and Pit get back to being decent programs, I don't think that the Big East is that much better than the Mountain West or WAC. If my only goal was going unbeaten and competing for the MNC, I would love for my Gators to take the place of either Lville or WVU and play a Big East schedule with just 1-2 tough conference games to worry about and no CCG.

[Blue Hen]

We'll ,the Gators have won 7 of their 12 games vs current BE teams. That's not overly frightening to the BE.

[GatorGrad]

That's all fine and dandy that we're 7-5 all time vs current Big East teams, but I'm talking about right now. If my goal was to go unbeaten and play for the MNC, I would love to swap places with either Lville or WVU. Compare the schedules and tell me that you do not agree. Those teams really just need to worry about each other in-conference, have just 7 conference games, and have no CCG. What a great setup and recipe for going unbeaten!

[Blue Hen]

actually, you're 7-3-2

[Hubbs]

They have beat West Virginia and could beat Auburn on the 8th. With the 85 scholarships and them being in Florida they are already better than say Mississippi State or Ole Miss. They are dangerously getting better and better. Location, location, location!!!!

[GatorGrad]

actually, you're 7-3-2

Well even better then!

[Blue Hen]

Agree about USF.............becoming dangerously powerful, season by season.

Read an article about the 57 children that the USF players, on the 05 roster, had fathered. That tells you that they have high speed athletes.

[Don]

list what games ? The BE/SEC PSEGs or the BE PSEGs in the 2000s ?

The Sportslink data your lookin at doesn't seem to be related.

Here are the ONLY BE vs SEC in PSEG games listed at sportslink which gives a record of 6-6 and NOT 12-6-1.
19930101 N Miami (FL) Alabama L 13-34 Big East/SEC
19930101 N Boston College Tennessee L 23-38 Big East/SEC
19940101 N West Virginia Florida L 7-41 Big East/SEC
19941230 N Virginia Tech Tennessee L 23-45 Big East/SEC
19950102 N West Virginia South Carolina L 21-24 Big East/SEC
19981229 N Virginia Tech Alabama W 38-7 Big East/SEC
19990102 N Syracuse Florida L 10-31 Big East/SEC
19991229 N Syracuse Kentucky W 20-13 Big East/SEC
20001228 N West Virginia Mississippi W 49-38 Big East/SEC
20010102 N Miami (FL) Florida W 37-20 Big East/SEC
20011228 N Boston College Georgia W 20-16 Big East/SEC
20060102 N West Virginia Georgia W 38-35 Big East/SEC

[Blue Hen]

Try reading more carefully, Don. My post noted 'CCC'....curent conference configuration. That means the all time PSEGs of the current BE teams vs the current SEC teams and the record is 12-6-1

Current BE vs Current SEC
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

Rutgers, 0-0
UConn, 0-0
Syracuse, 3-4-1
S.Florida, 0-0
Cinn, 0-0
Pittsburgh, 3-0
W.Virginia, 5-2
L'Ville, 1-0

"""""""""""""""""""
12-6-1

[GatorGrad]

Pretty small sample size there with most games being against their traditional powers: SU, PIT, WVU. No games against Rutgers, Uconn, USF, or CIN. Oh well. If the Big Ten takes Syracuse, who would the Big East add? Notre Dame could make this a legit BCS Conference...but unfortunately, Notre Dame only uses them for the non-football sports.

[Blue Hen]

Why isn't it a 'legit' BCS conference without ND ?

[GatorGrad]

It is my opinion that the Big East is just not that good and not much better than the WAC or Mountain West.

[AJBuckeye]

Based on the history of the teams you may be able to make the argument with some justification regarding the BE vs MWC (not the WAC). Last year though, the Big East was much much better than either the MWC or WAC. Last year the Big East performance much more comparable with BCS conferences than non BCS.

[Blue Hen]

A couple of the 100+ computer systems in the Massey composite actually ranked the BE #1 at the end of last season.


GG,
I see your opinion, but my question is 'why' you don't think the BE should be the 6th BCS league ( and the BCS needs 6 in order to exist ). What specific data or criteria is your opinion based on ?

[GatorGrad]

A couple of the 100+ computer systems in the Massey composite actually ranked the BE #1 at the end of last season.


GG,
I see your opinion, but my question is 'why' you don't think the BE should be the 6th BCS league ( and the BCS needs 6 in order to exist ). What specific data or criteria is your opinion based on ?

All that computer mumbo jumbo is fine and dandy. It's just my own personal opinion which I'm entitled to. I do agree that if you have to have 6 conferences, the Big East might as well be 6th. I just don't think it's in the same league as the other five BCS Conferences in its current state without VaTech, Miami, and BC. Last year was a great year for the Big East, and I'm still not sold. Winning the Big East Championship requires just 7 games against BCS Conference teams while winning the Big 12, ACC, SEC, and PAC 10 requires 9 games against BCS Conference teams. The Big Ten plays 8 such games. Meanwhile, it's not like the Big East's top teams are making up for this by scheduling great OOC games either.

For my Gators, if my only goal was to go unbeaten and play for the MNC, I would much prefer the schedule of Lville or WVU rather than our own. The games that we play that we have a chance of losing are Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, FSU, and the SEC Championship Game should we qualify. Can anyone say that Lville or WVU, who most consider to be the two Big East MNC Contenders, have a comparable "Road to New Orleans?" If we had Lville's schedule, the only games we would play where we would have a chance of losing would be WVU, possibly Rutgers if they prove to be for real. Again, this is just my opinion based on watching and studying college and is not based on any computers or statistics.