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sc69er
07-07-2007, 12:17 PM
of the SEC scheduling practices. Most of the conclusions have been presented by posters on this board but this analysis is done with the best rigor.

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This is to show how the SEC (or the Big XII, for that matter) inflates its rankings by playing a weak schedule, then beating up on the bad teams in the league to produce five or six top 25 teams.

The SEC has played 243 non-conference games over the past six years, including this year (not counting bowl games). Of those 243 games, only 54 were road games (22%). That's right, 12 teams over the course of six years played a total of 54 road games against non-conference opponents. That averages out to 3/4 of a road game every year per team, meaning on average, teams in the SEC play less than one road game out of conference a year. And the majority of those road games were games played by teams who had traditional rivals in other conferences (South Carolina and Clemson, Georgia and Georgia Tech, Florida and Florida St.). To compare to the Pac-10, the Pac-10 played 72 road games out of 205 non-conference games (35%).

Even more startling is the fact that the SEC played only 68 games against BCS teams (28%) vs. the Pac-10's 85 games against BCS teams (41%). 12 teams on average played less than one game a year against BCS competition in non-conference play, while the Pac-10 played an average of one and a half BCS teams a year over the past six years. Against BCS competition, the SEC had a losing record over the past six years, going 30-38 (44%). The Pac-10 had a winning record against BCS teams, going 46-39 (54%). The majority of those 30 SEC wins came from four teams-- Tennessee (7-1), Kentucky (5-1, but played only Big Ten doormat Indiana six times), Vanderbilt (5-3, but played Duke for four of those victories), and Georgia (5-3, 3-3 against GTech). The other eight teams in the SEC could only win eight games in six years against BCS teams (going 8-30).

Here is the breakdown of the Pac-10's and SEC's non-conference records over the past six years against the other BCS conferences (does not include bowl games-- this is about scheduling):

ACC
Pac-10 2-2 against ACC, SEC 14-20 against ACC

Big East
Pac-10 6-2, SEC 6-7

Big Ten
Pac-10 14-13, SEC 5-1

Big XII
Pac-10 13-11, SEC 2-3

Pac-10
SEC 1-6


SEC
Pac-10 6-1

Notre Dame
Pac-10 5-10, SEC 2-1

To further illustrate the point, the SEC was 151-24 in games against non-conference teams that weren't in the BCS conferences (86%). Even the bad teams in the SEC prop up SOS for the good teams by playing horrible teams that guarantee them wins. Auburn is a good example of what the SEC does to inflate their rankings. If Auburn had played the usual cupcake schedule that they have played in the past, they would be 9-3 right now and ranked in the top 15 most likely, having "only" lost to LSU, Mississippi and Georgia, while beating supposedly good teams like Arkansas and Tennessee. However, because they chose to play someone legitimate, they are 7-5 and looking for a new coach.

This is what the rest of the SEC does, with the exception of Florida, which has to play FSU every year (and loses, by the way) and sometimes Miami (losing to them, too). The following are the SEC teams and their records against BCS opponents listed first and their record against non-BCS opponents over the past six years.

TEAM, BCS record, non BCS record
Alabama 0-4, 13-5
Arkansas 1-0, 19-0 (yes, played only one BCS team over the past 6 years)
Auburn 1-5, 14-0
Florida 1-7, 12-0
Georgia 5-3, 12-0
Kentucky 5-1, 10-4
LSU 1-2, 15-2
Mississippi 0-2, 17-1
Mississippi St. 1-3, 13-3
South Carolina 3-7, 8-2
Tennessee 7-1, 12-0
Vanderbilt 5-3, 6-7

This is how the myth of the SEC is perpetuated. Since every team is guaranteed three or four wins to start the season, and then they get 3-4 more wins against the bottom half of the SEC, they have 6-8 wins before playing any of the tougher teams. With just one or two more wins, you have five or six teams with a minimum of eight wins in the "tough" conference, leading to higher rankings for all of those teams and increased SOS.

If you're wondering how the SEC did in bowl games over that time, here you go. After all, if they were truly a much better conference, their bowl record would show it, would it not. Over that same period, the SEC was 21-20 in their bowl games, certainly not dominant like they all claim to be.

Here are the non-conference schedules of both conferences over the past six years so you can see how sickening the schedules of the SEC teams really are.

Alabama
BYU, E Carolina, S. Mississippi, Houston, Louisiana Tech, S. Mississippi, @UCLA, S. Mississippi, Central Florida, UCLA, Texas El Paso, S. Mississippi, Mid Tennessee, @Oklahoma, N Texas, S. Mississippi, @Hawaii, S Florida, Oklahoma, N Illinois, S. Mississippi, @Hawaii.

Four nonconference road games in six years. Four games against BCS teams. 0-4 record against BCS teams.

Arkansas
SW Louisiana, SMU, @Memphis, @SMU, Louisiana Monroe, Mid Tenn St., SW Missouri St., Boise St., Louisiana Monroe, UNLV, Weber St., Central Florida, Boise St., S Florida, Troy St., Louisiana Lafayette, Tulsa, @Texas, N Texas, New Mexico St.

Three nonconference road games, ONE GAME against BCS teams. 1-0 against BCS teams.

Auburn
Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Central Florida, Appalachian St., Idaho, Central Florida, Wyoming, N. Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Ball St., @Syracuse, Louisiana Tech, @USC, W Carolina, Syracuse, Louisiana Monroe, USC, @GTech, W Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe.

Three nonconference road games in six years. Six games against BCS teams. 1-5 against BCS teams.

Florida
The Citadel, NE Louisiana, @FSU, W Michigan, Central Florida, FSU, Ball St., Mid Tenn St., @FSU, Marshall, Louisiana-Monroe, FSU, Alabama Birmingham, Miami, Ohio U, @FSU, San Jose St., @Miami, Florida A&M, FSU.

Four nonconference road games in six years, three coming from OOC rival Florida St., the other coming from in-state rival Miami. Eight games against BCS teams, all coming from traditional OOC rivals. 1-7 against BCS teams.

Georgia
Kent St., Wyoming, Georgia Tech, Utah St., Central Florida, @GTech, Georgia Southern, New Mexico St., GTech, Arkansas St., @GTech, Houston, Clemson, Northwestern St., New Mexico St., GTech, @Clemson, Middle Tennessee, Alabama Birmingham, @GTech.

Four nonconference road games in six years, three of them coming at the hands of rival Georgia Tech. Eight games against BCS teams, with GTech supplying six of those games. 5-3 against BCS teams.

Kentucky
@Louisville, E Kentucky, Indiana, Louisville, Connecticut, @Indiana, @Louisville, S Florida, Indiana, Louisville, Ball St., @Indiana, @Louisville, Texas El Paso, Indiana, Mid Tenneessee, Louisville, Murray St., @Indiana, Ohio U.

Six nonconference road games, three coming against in-state rival Louisville, the other three against Big Ten doormat Indiana (21-47 over past six years). Six games against BCS teams, all against perennial loser Indiana. 5-1 against BCS teams.

LSU
Arkansas St., Idaho, @ Notre Dame, San Jose St., N Texas, Houston, W Carolina, Houston, Alabama Birmingham, Tulane, Utah St., Mid Tennessee St., @Virginia Tech, The Citadel, Miami Ohio, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Monroe, @Arizona, W Illinois, Louisinana Tech.

Three nonconference road games in six years. Three games against BCS teams. 1- 2 against BCS teams

Mississippi Memphis, @SMU, Arkansas St., @Memphis, Arkansas St., Tulane, Tulane, Arkansas St. UNLV, Murray St., @Arkansas St., Mid Tenn St., Louisiana Monroe, Memphis, @Texas Tech, Arkansas St., @Memphis, Louisiana Monroe, Texas Tech, Arkansas St.

Five road nonconference games, TWO GAMES against BCS teams. 0-2 against BCS teams.

Mississippi State @Memphis, @Oklahoma St., E Tenn St., Mid Tenn St., Memphis, Oklahoma St., @Memphis, @BYU, Mid Tenn St., Memphis, Troy St., BYU, @Oregon, Jacksonville St., @Memphis, Oregon, @Tulane, @Houston, Memphis.

Seven road nonconference games in six years. Four games against BCS teams. 1- 3 record against BCS teams

South Carolina Ball St., Marshall, @Clemson, @NC State, E Carolina, Clemson, New Mexico St., E Michigan, @Clemson, Boise St., Wofford, Clemson, New Mexico St., @Virginia, Temple, @Clemson, Louisiana-Lafayette, Virginia, Alabama Birmingham, Clemson.

Five nonconference road games in six years, with three of those coming against traditional in-state rival Clemson. Ten games against BCS teams, with six of those coming against rival Clemson. 3-7 against BCS teams.

Tennessee @Syracuse, Houston, Alabama Birmingham, Wyoming, Memphis, Notre Dame, Southern Mississippi, UL Monore, @Memphis, Syracuse, @Notre Dame, Memphis, Wyoming, Middle Tenn., Rutgers, Miami, Fresno St., Marshall, Duke, @Miami.

Four nonconference road games in six years, eight games against BCS teams. 7- 1 against BCS teams.

Vanderbilt @TCU, W Michigan, Duke, N Illinois, @Duke, The Citadel, Miami Ohio, Duke, @Wake Forest, Mid Tennessee, Richmond, @Duke, @GTech, Furman, Mid Tennesse, Connecticut, Tenn-Chatanooga, @TCU, GTech, Navy.

Six nonconference road games, with two coming at powerhouse Duke (12-56 over past six years). Eight games against OOC BCS teams in six years, four against the aforementioned Duke. 5-3 against BCS teams

Overall: Out of 243 nonconference games over the past six years, 54 were road games (22%), and 68 were against BCS teams (28%), and the SEC was 30-38 (44%) against nonconference BCS teams, with Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt providing 15 of those wins (against Indiana and Duke, Kentucky and Vandy provided 9 wins). The other nine teams in the SEC could only muster 15 wins against nonconference opponents.

Arizona @Hawaii, Iowa, NE Louisiana, @Penn St., @TCU, Mid Tenn St., Texas El Paso, @Utah, Ohio St., San Diego St., @San Diego St., Idaho, UNLV, N Arizona, Utah, @Wisconsin, N Texas, Texas El Paso, LSU, @Purdue, TCU.

Seven nonconference road games in six years. Six games against BCS teams. 1-5 against BCS teams.

Arizona State @BYU, N Texas, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, New Mexico St., @Notre Dame, @San Diego St., COlorado St., Utah St., San Diego St., San Jose St., Louisiana Lafayette, @Nebraska, E Washington, Central Florida, @San Diego St., North Carolina, N Arizona, Utah St., @Iowa, @North Carolina.

Six nonconference road games in six years. Seven games against BCS teams. 2-5 against BCS teams.

California Houston, Nebraska, @Oklahoma, Rutgers, @Nebraska, @BYU, Utah, @Illinois, @Fresno St., Illinois, BYU, @Rutgers, Baylor, New Mexico St., @Michigan St., Air Force, @Kansas St., Southern Mississippi, Colorado St. @Utah, @Illinois.

Ten nonconference road games in six years. 11 games against BCS teams. 6-5 against BCS teams.


Oregon
Michigan St., Texas El Paso, San Jose St., @Michigan St., Texas El Paso, Nevada, Nevada, @Wisconsin, Idaho, Wisconsin, Utah, @Utah St., Mississippi St., Fresno St., Idaho, Portland St., @Mississippi St., Nevada, Michigan, @Utah.

Five nonconference road games in six years. Seven games against BCS teams. 5- 2 against BCS teams.

Oregon State
Nevada, Baylor, @Utah St., @Nevada, Fresno St., Georgia Southern, E Washington, @New Mexico, San Diego St., @Fresno St., @New Mexico St., N Arizona, E Kentucky, @Temple, UNLV, Fresno St., Sacramento St., @Fresno St., New Mexico St., Boise St.

Seven nonconference road games in six years. Two games against BCS teams. 2-0 against BCS teams.

Stanford
San Jose St., North Carolina, @Notre Dame, @Texas, San Jose St., Notre Dame, San Jose St., Texas, @Notre Dame, Boston College, Notre Dame, @San Jose St., @Boston College, San Jose St., @Notre Dame, San Jose St., @BYU, Notre Dame.

Seven nonconference road game in six years. 11 games against BCS teams. 5-6 against BCS teams.

UCLA
Texas, @Houston, @Miami, Boise St., @Ohio St., Fresno St., Alabama, Fresno St., Michigan, @ Alabama, @Kansas, Ohio St., Colorado St., @Oklahoma St., Colorado, San Diego St., @Colorado, Illinois, @Oklahoma, San Diego St.

Eight nonconference road games in six years. 13 games against BCS teams. 8-5 against BCS teams.

USC
Purdue, San Diego St., @ Florida St., Notre Dame, @Hawaii, San Diego St., @Notre Dame, Louisiana Tech, Penn St. (Meadowlands, NJ), Colorado, San Jose St., Notre Dame, San Jose St., Kansas St., @Notre Dame, Auburn, @Colorado, @Kansas St., Notre Dame, @Auburn, BYU, Hawaii, @Notre Dame.

Eight nonconference road games, one neutral site in New Jersey in six years. 15 games against BCS teams. 9-6 against BCS teams.

Washington
BYU, @Nebraska, Utah St., @BYU, Air Force, COlorado, Idaho, Miami, @Colorado, Michigan, Idaho, @Miami, @Michigan, San Jose St., Wyoming, Idaho, @Ohio St., Indiana, Idaho, Nevada.

Six nonconference road games in six years. Nine games against BCS teams. 5-4 against BCS teams.

Washington State
Illinois, @Boise St., Idaho, Utah, @Idaho, Louisiana Lafayette, @ Hawaii, @Utah, Idaho, Boise St., Idaho, @Boise St., Montana St., Nevada, Idaho, @Ohio St., Montana St., Idaho, @Notre Dame, @Colorado, New Mexico.

Eight nonconference road game in six years. Four games against BCS teams. 2-2 against BCS teams.

Out of 205 nonconference games played, 72 were played on the road (35%), 85 games were played against BCS teams (41%), and the Pac-10's record against BCS teams 46-39 (54%).

GatorGrad
07-07-2007, 12:25 PM
This is what the rest of the SEC does, with the exception of Florida, which has to play FSU every year (and loses, by the way) and sometimes Miami (losing to them, too). The following are the SEC teams and their records against BCS opponents listed first and their record against non-BCS opponents over the past six years.

Check Florida's all time record vs FSU. They don't lose every year. They lead the all time series by approx 10 games, and have won the last three (four if you count the worst-called game in college football history in 2003) in a row over FSU.

GatorGrad
07-07-2007, 12:33 PM
By the way, I actually agree that the SEC's rankings and # of bowl teams are inflated by the weak OOC scheduling for the SEC overall. That's why you will never see me refer to our # of ranked teams and # of bowl teams when defending the strength of the SEC. The cupcake OOC games are for money. The more home games, the more wins, the more bowls, and the more money. It's simply a business decision. Sad, but true. All OOC games and bowl games are really exhibitions that are all about money anyways. That's why I choose to focus on the exciting SEC race every year.

When discussing the strength of the SEC, I prefer to look at more relevant stats. Winning % in bowl games (to some extent only as I don't like the fact that teams take a month off, top players are concerned about the NFL Draft, and most games outside of the MNC game are really meaningless) and regular season winning % vs other BCS Conferences are much more valid ways to compare. Especially when some thought as who who was playing who is considered (a top three team from one conference vs a bottom three team from another conference is really irrelevant.) Also, when considering SOS for an elite team, the # of other elite teams that have similar talent and are more likely to hand you a loss, must be considered. So considering the "top half" of each conference is more relevant to me as a Florida fan vs if I were a Kentucky fan for example.

All in all, good data. I can't argue that the SEC schedules their way into better rankings and bowl bids. Other conferences with a CCG format such as the Big 12 and ACC are also catching on. It's all about the money.

CJHawkeyes
07-07-2007, 12:50 PM
FWIW, here are the records for the SEC's top six last year versus OOC and the SEC's bottom six:

Florida (8-0)
LSU(8-0)
Auburn (8-0)
Arkansas (8-1)
Georgia (7-2)
Tennessee (8-0)

That is 47-3 including 1-1 versus ranked opponents. Of course, this group was 4-2 in bowl games. Therefore, this is a strong group. However, it is easy to see how the SEC places six teams in the rankings when they all have 7-8 wins before the games against each other are counted.

ktffan
07-07-2007, 04:11 PM
Aren't you the one that complained the people are arguing about the same old thing and you're giving us something from 2004?