MFootball
09-08-2009, 06:30 PM
Well, most of you guys probably don't remember me. I did a little bit of writing for NC.net waaaayyy back. But, I wrote a little preview for this week's Notre Dame at Michigan game in my spare time. It's nothing polished, so try not to be too critical. ;)
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When Michigan is on offense...
As with any game, success starts with controlling the trenches. Michigan's offensive line, much maligned a year ago, returned with a great spring and has continued to chart accolades throughout fall camp. In the opener against Western Michigan, the Wolverines didn't allow a single sack and averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry. Although the offensive line played fairly well, statistics can be misleading; first, the Wolverines now employ several roll-out passing plays and have two mobile quarterbacks. When coupled with a shotgun spread-option offensive set, it's not hard to see why sack tallies will be low against Michigan all season. As an added bonus, the quarterbacks help to boost the YPC stats with long runs on broken plays. In heads-up offensive line play, Michigan was more of the feast or famine variety. For every 8 or 9 yard gallop, there was an equally ineffective no-gainer or 1 yard struggle.
Typically the spread option attack is predicated on establishing the QB zone read play, something that wasn't readily seen last weekend against the Broncos. With backup Carlos Brown in at tailback for WMU, Michigan didn't seem anxious to try and establish the straight running game. Brown, although he had a great preseason camp, is more of the speedster variety, and simply doesn't possess the physical "punish-the-defense" running style that first-teamer Brandon Minor is capable of. Minor was dressed last week against the Broncos and appeared ready to go in the pregame, but certainly the coaches knew something if they made the decision to sit him all afternoon. His return against the Irish this week is questionable, but he certainly would be a big upgrade in the ground game if he's able to go. Despite averaging 5.4 YPC, Brown was only allotted 10 carries this past Saturday. That number certainly would have gone up had the Wolverines not been up 31-0 at half, but nonetheless was lower than expected. As an added note, fullback Mark Moundros was injured early in the contest last week, and his return is also questionable. He is being held out of contact in practice, and may or may not suit up against Notre Dame. RB Kevin Grady played admirably in his absence, and is more of an offensive threat to run the ball, but isn't as strong of a blocker as Moundros. The Wolverines would sure like to have both options in the backfield against Jon Tenuta's aggressive Irish defense.
In the passing game, Michigan wildly exceeded expectations, as true freshman Tate Forcier went 13-for-20, 179 yards, and 3 TD's. More impressively, though, was that Forcier and counterpart Denard Robinson were both able to make it through their college debuts without a single turnover. With a combined 46 touches against Western Michigan (Forcier: 11 run, 20 pass. Robinson: 11 run, 4 pass), the freshmen posted 308 yards of offense. Logic says that the sledding will be much tougher against an Irish defense that allowed only 5.7 yards-per-pass-attempt en route to a shutout of Nevada last week in South Bend. As an extension of that notion, it is fair to say that the likelihood of the freshmen remaining perfect with the football will diminish greatly this week. Last year, Michigan left South Bend with a 35-17 loss after finishing with a (-4) turnover margin. That simply cannot happen this time around in Ann Arbor if the Wolverines have any aspirations of starting their 2009 season at 2-0. As mentioned, Tate Forcier threw the ball very well last weekend, showing great poise in spreading the ball around and being patient enough to let plays develop. The standout of the Wolverine receiving core was Junior Hemingway, who hauled in five catches for 103 yards and a pair of scores. After a late second quarter deep ball, it appears Hemingway is ready to be the deep threat for the Wolverine offense. This offense will want to dink-and-dunk against a Notre Dame team that will likely be trying to bring the heat, but the ability to stretch the field is crucial to keep the defense honest and open up some of the running lanes that weren't there last week.
What to watch for...
Aside from the obvious need to avoid turning the football over, Michigan needs to maintain offensive balance against Notre Dame. Short passes and screens will go a long way in diminishing Notre Dame's ability to rush freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. If Michigan can convert a big play off of a short pass (in lieu of ND's aggression) early, then it could help to stem the tide for the rest of the game. Michigan's wideouts and running backs have proven to be very quick in open space, so the gameplan is simple. Notre Dame wants to put enough heat on Forcier and Robinson to force quick decisions, and Michigan wants to capitalize on that by running draws, screens, and short routes. If the Irish defense gets to the freshmen early, this will be a long day for the Michigan offense. However, if Michigan can mix it up and keep Notre Dame honest, they certainly have enough offensive talent to sustain drives and make things hard on Jon Tenuta and his defense.
When Michigan is on defense...
It's no secret that the Irish used big plays to dominate Nevada's defense in their opener, and Hawaii in the 2008 bowl game. Against the Wolfpack, Notre Dame converted touchdowns of 77 and 80 yards to sophomore receiver Michael Floyd, who finished with 189 yards receiving and three scores on only four catches. That's not to say that Floyd is the only Irish threat, however, as junior Golden Tate established himself as a 1000 yard guy last year, piling up 10 touchdown grabs and an impressive 18.6 yards-per-catch. As if covering these two kids doesn't provide enough stress on a defense, Notre Dame loves to use RB Armando Allen in their passing game. As a junior in 2008, this kid snagged 50 grabs for a 7.1 yards-per-catch average. Notre Dame is a deep threat passing team, but they are also capable of working the ball underneath when the deep ball breaks down. The best way to stop the Irish passing game is get pressure on QB Jimmy Clausen, but it will be easier said than done for Michigan this weekend. By my count, this is an Irish offensive line that has over one hundred starts combined as a unit coming into Ann Arbor.
Michigan faced a solid offensive line and QB last week in Western Michigan's Tim Hiller, but the Notre Dame offensive skillset brings something that the Wolverines have not seen. The ability of the Irish to stretch Michigan's defense will be called into question early, as Weis and Co. will certainly look to take Michigan's 109K+ crowd out of the game and have them sitting on their hands before halftime. Michigan's defense, led by former Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson, must devise a scheme to get pressure on Clausen without leaving cornerbacks on an island with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. Moreover, the fact that Notre Dame knows this is the gameplan complicates things and leads to a chess match. As head man of Syracuse a year ago, Robinson engineered the upset of Notre Dame in South Bend. Anyone who doesn't think that Weis and his cronies are reviewing film of that scheme? I've got some swamp land I'd love to sell you. Look for Notre Dame to test Michigan deep early on in this contest; the matchup of the day will be whether or not Michigan's talented corner duo of Boubacar Cissoko and Donovan Warren can handle themselves one-on-one with Tate and Floyd.
Michigan's defense tackled very well in space against WMU, something that hasn't been seen in Ann Arbor in the several seasons. Keeping the Irish receivers in check on YAC when Notre Dame does indeed decide to go underneath coverage will be absolutely critical in stopping the Irish offense consistently. Michigan absolutely must also be able to stop any Notre Dame rushing threat without committing extra men in the box, and that task will be up to NT Mike Martin and senior defensive end standout Brandon Graham. Michigan's front seven had an amazing game against the Broncos last week in Ann Arbor, and that must continue to improve this week when Notre Dame comes into town. Look for LB's Jonas Mouton, Craig Roh, Stevie Brown, and Obi Ezeh to be constantly on the hunt to get in Clausen's grill. If they are as successful in week two as they were in week one, Michigan will be able to slow the Irish offense into lulls throughout the game. Despite Michigan's defensive speed, if Jimmy Clausen has time to sit back and survey the situation, there isn't a cornerback tandem in America that can stop his wide receivers.
What to watch for...
Seems pretty simple, eh? Stop the deep ball, stop the underneath routes, stop the running game, and pressure the quarterback! Oh... wait... that's the hardest part of playing defense. Trying to defend great balance in a college game is akin to chasing a greased pig in a monsoon. Folks will be thrown off by Notre Dame's passing numbers, thinking that this is a team that wants to throw, throw, throw. Wrong. A quick check of offensive attempts in 2008 will quickly debunk our myth. The '08 Irish had 436 rush attempts to 447 pass attempts and a 49.4/50.6 run-to-pass ratio. In fact, the reason why the Notre Dame offense has such great success with the deep ball is because they can run the football so effectively. When you force teams to commit guys into the box and throw the football over their heads, you score points. And lots of them. Of course, it never hurts to have wide receivers that are of the All-American talent variety. So, where am I going with this? Michigan absolutely must dominate the line of scrimmage with their front seven when Notre Dame is on offense. If big Mike Martin and Brandon Graham can control the interior of Notre Dame's offensive line and allow Michigan's LB's to make plays on the Irish ground game, Michigan's defensive backs can focus on playing the deep ball. FS Troy Woolfolk runs track for Michigan, and is a kid that's plenty fast enough to stay with the Irish wideouts, but he has to be focused on doing so; he can't be trusted in coverage if he's up defending the run.
Intangibles
Well folks, I'd say that this is the biggest reason to bother sitting on your couch and watching the game. You've got a Notre Dame team that believes this is their year to move back into their rightful place on the college football hierarchy, and a Michigan team that's young, hungry, and tired of hearing that they aren't good enough. Michigan is at home, and the new stadium design has reportedly made great strides in improving crowd noise in The Big House. This is a game that both teams need to start their seasons out on the right foot. For Michigan, it means that they will likely start 4-0 (with Indiana and Eastern Michigan being the next two obstacles), and for Notre Dame it means that they will have escaped what will likely be their toughest road competition for the remainder of the 2009 season. These are the two most storied programs in college football, and this year they possess big play capability and a potential to excite that won't be matched by many games this fall.
Quick Conclusion
In my opinion, both teams will be spotty offensively throughout this contest. I think that we'll see big plays, followed by offensive lulls, and a chess match that will be enough to leave both team's fans needing respirators. That said, despite the fact that it sounds ridiculously cliche, the team that wins the turnover battle will win this football game. With Notre Dame you're looking at a kid in Jimmy Clausen that's entering his third season as a starter, and with Michigan you're looking at a freshmen tandem that's entering their second game. This is an awful big stage to expect much out of freshmen, and that's why I'm predicting that the Irish will win the turnover battle (and the game), 28-24.
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When Michigan is on offense...
As with any game, success starts with controlling the trenches. Michigan's offensive line, much maligned a year ago, returned with a great spring and has continued to chart accolades throughout fall camp. In the opener against Western Michigan, the Wolverines didn't allow a single sack and averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry. Although the offensive line played fairly well, statistics can be misleading; first, the Wolverines now employ several roll-out passing plays and have two mobile quarterbacks. When coupled with a shotgun spread-option offensive set, it's not hard to see why sack tallies will be low against Michigan all season. As an added bonus, the quarterbacks help to boost the YPC stats with long runs on broken plays. In heads-up offensive line play, Michigan was more of the feast or famine variety. For every 8 or 9 yard gallop, there was an equally ineffective no-gainer or 1 yard struggle.
Typically the spread option attack is predicated on establishing the QB zone read play, something that wasn't readily seen last weekend against the Broncos. With backup Carlos Brown in at tailback for WMU, Michigan didn't seem anxious to try and establish the straight running game. Brown, although he had a great preseason camp, is more of the speedster variety, and simply doesn't possess the physical "punish-the-defense" running style that first-teamer Brandon Minor is capable of. Minor was dressed last week against the Broncos and appeared ready to go in the pregame, but certainly the coaches knew something if they made the decision to sit him all afternoon. His return against the Irish this week is questionable, but he certainly would be a big upgrade in the ground game if he's able to go. Despite averaging 5.4 YPC, Brown was only allotted 10 carries this past Saturday. That number certainly would have gone up had the Wolverines not been up 31-0 at half, but nonetheless was lower than expected. As an added note, fullback Mark Moundros was injured early in the contest last week, and his return is also questionable. He is being held out of contact in practice, and may or may not suit up against Notre Dame. RB Kevin Grady played admirably in his absence, and is more of an offensive threat to run the ball, but isn't as strong of a blocker as Moundros. The Wolverines would sure like to have both options in the backfield against Jon Tenuta's aggressive Irish defense.
In the passing game, Michigan wildly exceeded expectations, as true freshman Tate Forcier went 13-for-20, 179 yards, and 3 TD's. More impressively, though, was that Forcier and counterpart Denard Robinson were both able to make it through their college debuts without a single turnover. With a combined 46 touches against Western Michigan (Forcier: 11 run, 20 pass. Robinson: 11 run, 4 pass), the freshmen posted 308 yards of offense. Logic says that the sledding will be much tougher against an Irish defense that allowed only 5.7 yards-per-pass-attempt en route to a shutout of Nevada last week in South Bend. As an extension of that notion, it is fair to say that the likelihood of the freshmen remaining perfect with the football will diminish greatly this week. Last year, Michigan left South Bend with a 35-17 loss after finishing with a (-4) turnover margin. That simply cannot happen this time around in Ann Arbor if the Wolverines have any aspirations of starting their 2009 season at 2-0. As mentioned, Tate Forcier threw the ball very well last weekend, showing great poise in spreading the ball around and being patient enough to let plays develop. The standout of the Wolverine receiving core was Junior Hemingway, who hauled in five catches for 103 yards and a pair of scores. After a late second quarter deep ball, it appears Hemingway is ready to be the deep threat for the Wolverine offense. This offense will want to dink-and-dunk against a Notre Dame team that will likely be trying to bring the heat, but the ability to stretch the field is crucial to keep the defense honest and open up some of the running lanes that weren't there last week.
What to watch for...
Aside from the obvious need to avoid turning the football over, Michigan needs to maintain offensive balance against Notre Dame. Short passes and screens will go a long way in diminishing Notre Dame's ability to rush freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. If Michigan can convert a big play off of a short pass (in lieu of ND's aggression) early, then it could help to stem the tide for the rest of the game. Michigan's wideouts and running backs have proven to be very quick in open space, so the gameplan is simple. Notre Dame wants to put enough heat on Forcier and Robinson to force quick decisions, and Michigan wants to capitalize on that by running draws, screens, and short routes. If the Irish defense gets to the freshmen early, this will be a long day for the Michigan offense. However, if Michigan can mix it up and keep Notre Dame honest, they certainly have enough offensive talent to sustain drives and make things hard on Jon Tenuta and his defense.
When Michigan is on defense...
It's no secret that the Irish used big plays to dominate Nevada's defense in their opener, and Hawaii in the 2008 bowl game. Against the Wolfpack, Notre Dame converted touchdowns of 77 and 80 yards to sophomore receiver Michael Floyd, who finished with 189 yards receiving and three scores on only four catches. That's not to say that Floyd is the only Irish threat, however, as junior Golden Tate established himself as a 1000 yard guy last year, piling up 10 touchdown grabs and an impressive 18.6 yards-per-catch. As if covering these two kids doesn't provide enough stress on a defense, Notre Dame loves to use RB Armando Allen in their passing game. As a junior in 2008, this kid snagged 50 grabs for a 7.1 yards-per-catch average. Notre Dame is a deep threat passing team, but they are also capable of working the ball underneath when the deep ball breaks down. The best way to stop the Irish passing game is get pressure on QB Jimmy Clausen, but it will be easier said than done for Michigan this weekend. By my count, this is an Irish offensive line that has over one hundred starts combined as a unit coming into Ann Arbor.
Michigan faced a solid offensive line and QB last week in Western Michigan's Tim Hiller, but the Notre Dame offensive skillset brings something that the Wolverines have not seen. The ability of the Irish to stretch Michigan's defense will be called into question early, as Weis and Co. will certainly look to take Michigan's 109K+ crowd out of the game and have them sitting on their hands before halftime. Michigan's defense, led by former Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson, must devise a scheme to get pressure on Clausen without leaving cornerbacks on an island with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. Moreover, the fact that Notre Dame knows this is the gameplan complicates things and leads to a chess match. As head man of Syracuse a year ago, Robinson engineered the upset of Notre Dame in South Bend. Anyone who doesn't think that Weis and his cronies are reviewing film of that scheme? I've got some swamp land I'd love to sell you. Look for Notre Dame to test Michigan deep early on in this contest; the matchup of the day will be whether or not Michigan's talented corner duo of Boubacar Cissoko and Donovan Warren can handle themselves one-on-one with Tate and Floyd.
Michigan's defense tackled very well in space against WMU, something that hasn't been seen in Ann Arbor in the several seasons. Keeping the Irish receivers in check on YAC when Notre Dame does indeed decide to go underneath coverage will be absolutely critical in stopping the Irish offense consistently. Michigan absolutely must also be able to stop any Notre Dame rushing threat without committing extra men in the box, and that task will be up to NT Mike Martin and senior defensive end standout Brandon Graham. Michigan's front seven had an amazing game against the Broncos last week in Ann Arbor, and that must continue to improve this week when Notre Dame comes into town. Look for LB's Jonas Mouton, Craig Roh, Stevie Brown, and Obi Ezeh to be constantly on the hunt to get in Clausen's grill. If they are as successful in week two as they were in week one, Michigan will be able to slow the Irish offense into lulls throughout the game. Despite Michigan's defensive speed, if Jimmy Clausen has time to sit back and survey the situation, there isn't a cornerback tandem in America that can stop his wide receivers.
What to watch for...
Seems pretty simple, eh? Stop the deep ball, stop the underneath routes, stop the running game, and pressure the quarterback! Oh... wait... that's the hardest part of playing defense. Trying to defend great balance in a college game is akin to chasing a greased pig in a monsoon. Folks will be thrown off by Notre Dame's passing numbers, thinking that this is a team that wants to throw, throw, throw. Wrong. A quick check of offensive attempts in 2008 will quickly debunk our myth. The '08 Irish had 436 rush attempts to 447 pass attempts and a 49.4/50.6 run-to-pass ratio. In fact, the reason why the Notre Dame offense has such great success with the deep ball is because they can run the football so effectively. When you force teams to commit guys into the box and throw the football over their heads, you score points. And lots of them. Of course, it never hurts to have wide receivers that are of the All-American talent variety. So, where am I going with this? Michigan absolutely must dominate the line of scrimmage with their front seven when Notre Dame is on offense. If big Mike Martin and Brandon Graham can control the interior of Notre Dame's offensive line and allow Michigan's LB's to make plays on the Irish ground game, Michigan's defensive backs can focus on playing the deep ball. FS Troy Woolfolk runs track for Michigan, and is a kid that's plenty fast enough to stay with the Irish wideouts, but he has to be focused on doing so; he can't be trusted in coverage if he's up defending the run.
Intangibles
Well folks, I'd say that this is the biggest reason to bother sitting on your couch and watching the game. You've got a Notre Dame team that believes this is their year to move back into their rightful place on the college football hierarchy, and a Michigan team that's young, hungry, and tired of hearing that they aren't good enough. Michigan is at home, and the new stadium design has reportedly made great strides in improving crowd noise in The Big House. This is a game that both teams need to start their seasons out on the right foot. For Michigan, it means that they will likely start 4-0 (with Indiana and Eastern Michigan being the next two obstacles), and for Notre Dame it means that they will have escaped what will likely be their toughest road competition for the remainder of the 2009 season. These are the two most storied programs in college football, and this year they possess big play capability and a potential to excite that won't be matched by many games this fall.
Quick Conclusion
In my opinion, both teams will be spotty offensively throughout this contest. I think that we'll see big plays, followed by offensive lulls, and a chess match that will be enough to leave both team's fans needing respirators. That said, despite the fact that it sounds ridiculously cliche, the team that wins the turnover battle will win this football game. With Notre Dame you're looking at a kid in Jimmy Clausen that's entering his third season as a starter, and with Michigan you're looking at a freshmen tandem that's entering their second game. This is an awful big stage to expect much out of freshmen, and that's why I'm predicting that the Irish will win the turnover battle (and the game), 28-24.