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View Full Version : Games that appear interesting in Week One - predictions


Jim
08-22-2009, 07:06 PM
Games that appear to be the most interesting. No idea what the spread are so I can go with a gut feel.


South Carolina at NC State – last year the Gamecocks ripped the ‘Pack, 34-0. Lopsided score was due more to a terrible NC State offense than a dominant USC team. The ‘Pack ended strong last year while Spurrier’s magic abandoned him. NC State will win with a good defense vs. ineffective USC offense.

Miami at Florida State – Bowden and his boys have got to be pissed off with all that has happened to the program since 2008. Their OL finally showed some prowess in the Champs Bowl rout over Wisconsin last year. But after graduation the defense is now a question mark but has three solid LBs. Miami, once again with a new OC and DC, will be trying to meld the talent into a consistent unit. The Cane defense was weak last year and 2009 will be a rebuilding year. FSU ought to win this game as FSU makes a legitimate run for the division title.

Maryland at California – Last year Maryland shocked Cal in College Park. Not so this year as a Terp offense is saddled with rebuilding an average (at best) OL from last year. The defense was stripped with graduation. On the other hand, California is considered a team capable of winnign the Pac Ten and beating USC at home. Every year Cal is the recipient of great expectations only to fall flat as the season progresses. Again, Cal starts out strong and wins this game hands down.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta, GA) – The VPI offense, not its trademark, took a serious blow with their star RB’s season-ending injury this summer. Tech’s offense will have to be inventive to compensate. The Hokies defense, as always is a Foster machine. Alabama, after suffering two successive losses, needs to get out of the gate with a super effort. The Tide has a superior OL and big RBs and LBs. If VPI can click with a passing game the Tide secondary will be tested but a one dimensional Hokie offense will not get it done. Even the Hokie defense, as awesome as it is, will eventually get burned by the powerful Crimson Tide. This isn’t the ACC but an SEC power. Expect Alabama to win close but the VPI defense to impress. This should be a tough four full quarters.

Missouri vs. Illinois (St. Louis) – Experts are picking Illinois to beat Missouri. The Tigers have talent but they lost a lot on offense. The defense wasn’t that good last year but it has returning talent as well. All in all this Missouri team, that some thinking very highly of, isn’t the 2008 version. Maybe in 2010? Illinois, on the other hand, probably has the Big Ten’s best offense and it will shine will speed and skill. The defense is good and with time will become more solid. Illinois has too many guns for Mizzou this time out. The Illini should win this one handily..

Toledo at Purdue ??? – The Boilers are going to be competing with Indiana to stay out of the cellar. With a new coach comes a new era and rekindled goals. Too early to expect a consistent beating of the victory drum or have lofty thoughts. 2009 will be rough for Purdue. It will eventually get better for the Boilers. Toledo, formerly a power in the MAC, did beat a poor Michigan team last year in Ann Arbor. Experience is a great teacher. Last year a team with talent was sporadic on offense. Same on defense. A new DC inherits a lot of experience there as well. This game could actually go either way. Being between two teams with issues and inconsistencies, it seems fitting to bring this into the “interesting” column. I’m calling a toss-up with this one.

BYU vs. Oklahoma (Arlington, TX) – The Sooners have a super DL , solid LBs and super RBs on offense. The only relative weakness on D is with the DBs. Offensively OU will take a step back on its punching ability with a new OL and up-and-coming receivers. BYU’s OL lost four starters as well and OU’s DL will make them pay. The Cougar defense started out great in 2008 and then slid. Weaknesses are at the corner. OU has an advantage here even with great TEs at BYU. OU ought to be able to exploit this. Sooners will play an excellent BYU team but the Sooner RBs, DL and Bradford will win the day.

Georgia at Oklahoma State – Georgia has proven never to be underestimated – especially early on. The offense is talented and loaded. The “new” QB is a vet and his skill players are very talented. On defense they will lack a rush but do have excellent DTs and LBs. They’ll eventually come around. OSU, on the other hand, has consistently shown they fall short when a lot is expected of them. The offense is one to drool over with super skill players getting the ball but the defense has proven to be vulnerable. Strong point is with their trio of LBs. I expect a lot of scoring for four quarters. But defense usually wins games and I think Georgia has an advantage here even with a weakened pass rush.

Appalachian State at East Carolina ??? – Not a lot to say about this as both teams get plenty of conversation around the south. ASU always plays tough like Troy. ECU is on the verge. This will be an excellent game and it wouldn’t surprise me to see ASU take this one from the Pirates.

Buffalo at UTEP ??? – So will Buffalo continue on its winning ways. UTEP played Texas tough at home for awhile but never stood a good chance of winning. This game will be interesting as both teams are looking for consistency. Buffalo nailed UTEP last year in New York but isn’t going to surprise anyone anymore. Let’s see if UTEP can turn the corner at home.

Nevada at Notre Dame – Nevada has the offense. Notre Dame has one still being molded. Perhaps the Irish came together in that 49-21 blowout win over Hawaii? A good Nevada team got crushed on opening day in 2007 by one of the worst Nebraska teams in memory. I think the Wolfpack will not have that kind of a meltdown vs. the Irish but the Irish offense will also push Nevada around. I see the luck of the Irish winning the day but having to work for it.

TCU at Virginia – TCU lost a lot of veterans from last year’s 11-2 team. The Frogs have a strong OL and talented newcomer RBs with a proven receiving corps. New OC will initially result in a learning curve. Virginia is still struggling. With an average OL and new skill players other than their QB the Cavaliers will be in a building process for most of the season. Some vets on DL but green everywhere else. TCU ought to win this game on their first trip out of two in a three week span to the ACC.

Oregon at Boise State – The season is a make or break for the Broncos on day one. The Ducks get a solid BSU team in Eugene. We’ll see how the new Oregon coach debuts. A win here by the Ducks indicates great things will be happening at Oregon. Offensively the Ducks aren’t going to miss a beat but the defense will have to have some step up players to apply pressure. BSU has a young line and lost almost all its skill players except for super QB Kellen Moore. A major rebuilding effort on defense is required. Opening up vs. Oregon is a good way to find out what is and isn’t working. The “Quack Attack” prevails in this tough opener for both teams.

Louisiana Tech at Auburn – Let’s face it, Auburn was pathetic last year. That isn’t going to continue but this isn’t a challenger in the SEC West just yet either. Louisiana Tech returns nine starters on offense and has a good DL but the pass defense is bad. Tulsa’s OC has arrived along with Gene Chizik at Auburn. A new DC will help forge a solid Auburn defense that was relied on way too heavily last year. With the new attitude at Auburn they will give it their best shot and do well but I think La. Tech is going to pull a stunner here as the Bulldogs are in place and know what they can do while Auburn is still searching for the chemistry that will work this year.

Troy at Bowling Green – Practically the entire offense returns for Troy and last year they hummed. The return a very fast defense that had one of the nation’s premier pass rushes. The Trojans are set for a very good season. The Falcons of Bowling Green also have a highly potent offense returning but an OL with issues. BGSU’s defense needs to be rebuilt. With Troy set and the lines for the Falcons being question marks I have to go with Troy to open up with a win in a marquise matchup between non-BCS schools.


Slaughters of the Week (there are a number of them I didn't list):

Jacksonville State (-Perilloux) at Georgia Tech
Liberty at West Virginia
North Dakota at Texas Tech
Western Kentucky at Tennessee
Portland State at Oregon State

Akahikea
08-22-2009, 10:39 PM
Not sure if you factored this into your decision, but you just said Oregon gets Boise in Eugene right after you put Oregon @ Boise State. Last year was Eugene

I'm not sure we'll slaughter Portland State. They chuck the ball around a lot, and our secondary is very young. Backup QB, missing a starting WR. O-Line is a mess with injuries, very early start time. Not worried about winning, but doesn't look like a slaughter to me. Not on the level of a TT-North Dakota anyway

Also, TCU-Virginia isn't until week 2. Virginia opens with William & Mary and will have played a game when they host TCU, while the Frogs will not have.

Jim
08-23-2009, 08:38 AM
Not sure if you factored this into your decision, but you just said Oregon gets Boise in Eugene right after you put Oregon @ Boise State. Last year was Eugene

I'm not sure we'll slaughter Portland State. They chuck the ball around a lot, and our secondary is very young. Backup QB, missing a starting WR. O-Line is a mess with injuries, very early start time. Not worried about winning, but doesn't look like a slaughter to me. Not on the level of a TT-North Dakota anyway

Also, TCU-Virginia isn't until week 2. Virginia opens with William & Mary and will have played a game when they host TCU, while the Frogs will not have.

Apparently I was looking at the schedule from TCU's perspective and just assumed week one for them wass, well ... Week One. So, Portland isn't a patsy? I would never have known. Do you think Oregon State is just one year away? In 2010 they'll get USC back in Corvallis (or perhaps played in Portland).

I recall when the Beavers sucked to high heavy after that early '60s surge with Terry Baker and then winning the Pac Eight in their inaugural season in 1964. Always liked their solid black uniforms with Halloween orange helmets and piping. Wish they'd go back to it as it was pretty distinct then and would be now. Nice to see Oregon's A&M (?) school kick some ass.

Akahikea
08-23-2009, 10:34 AM
Not sure if Portland State is overall too spectacular, but Jerry Glanville is their coach. I figure he knows what he's doing and their passing game should be pretty good. I've been meaning to check the 1-AA pre-season poll to see if they were in it. I'm sure they're no Montana, but they should be right there fighting with the Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington types for 2nd or 3rd in the Big Sky, which is a pretty good conference. Oregon State's 3rd QB transferred there a few weeks ago as well. Not familiar enough with Portland State's roster to know if he's good enough to start there, but even if he's not, schematically that's quite important, though not enough to overcome the talent disparity too significantly. Just an interesting matchup for a team that lost 3 starters in the secondary to the NFL, and both rush ends. About 4 years ago, Oregon State was one of the worst pass defenses in the nation, all new starters on the DL and secondary. Combine the lack of pass rush with the FR who were starting and it was bad news. So I'm expecting them to be able to toss it around pretty well.

As for being one year away, it all depends on the quality of the QB play next year. I think we'll have something like 17 starters back in 2010. From what I've heard, Virginia transfer Peter Lalich is the likely starter in 2010. Riley sounds impressed, but for whatever reason, the first year in the system, QBs struggle with Riley's system. Matt Moore was miserable the first year he started, Moevao and Canfield took 2 years to stop throwing all the interceptions. So, hopefully Lalich is a little further along than they were. Just keep Quizz healthy and that'll go a long way to breaking in the new QB. We'll have all the tough games at home, Southern Cal, Cal, Oregon, Arizona State at home is important, Beavs never ever play well in Tempe. Very early trip to Boise though. Not sure how Boise stacks up next season yet, but it's week 3 or 4. Hoping that gets moved to earlier. Home game vs. Louisville the week before Boise as of now, and one more OOC game to be scheduled.

I thankfully am not old enough to remember most of the really attrocious Oregon State teams, but I do recall going to a few games where they still ran the wishbone, couldn't pass to save their lives, and went 1-10.

I see Portland State lost to Washington State by 39 last season. I'm suddenly a lot less concerned. It's his 3rd season there, maybe Glanville will get them together. I might just be paranoid. I was thinking a comfortable 24-28 point win, but if that's all they can muster against Washington State's pitiful team last year, maybe it will be right up there.

Hail to the Victors Valiant
08-23-2009, 12:53 PM
Week 1 couldn't arrive soon enough.

EvilVodka
08-23-2009, 01:26 PM
Not bad picks Jim

The only one I moderately disagree with is BYU and Oklahoma...I think BYU gets pasted

TommyTrojan
08-23-2009, 05:29 PM
Not bad picks Jim

The only one I moderately disagree with is BYU and Oklahoma...I think BYU gets pasted

Yeah I think Jim was paying to much credit to the Cougars. "an excellent BYU team"...."Good" may have been a better choice ;)

I always look forward to your weekly previews!

terpintime
08-27-2009, 10:51 AM
Jim, I believe you will find the Maryland-California game to be more interesting than you anticipate. The Terps have an abundance of talent at the skill positions including an experienced quarterback. The relatively young offensive line will be evolving, but will prove better than last year's erratic and underachieving group. In a West Coast scheme that is not a crippling prospect as the short passing game can curtail the effectiveness of traditional pressure. Most importantly, the Terps' defense is abandoning the soft zone/ read and react philosophy that handcuffed it during the tenure of Chris Cosh as defensive coordinator. Cal will have no idea what is coming or from where in Don Brown's schemes. And the talent on that side of the ball is a lot better than you seem to think. If I were a betting man, I would take the Terps and the 21 points. Come to think of it, maybe I will...

Jim
08-27-2009, 02:48 PM
Jim, I believe you will find the Maryland-California game to be more interesting than you anticipate. The Terps have an abundance of talent at the skill positions including an experienced quarterback. The relatively young offensive line will be evolving, but will prove better than last year's erratic and underachieving group. In a West Coast scheme that is not a crippling prospect as the short passing game can curtail the effectiveness of traditional pressure. Most importantly, the Terps' defense is abandoning the soft zone/ read and react philosophy that handcuffed it during the tenure of Chris Cosh as defensive coordinator. Cal will have no idea what is coming or from where in Don Brown's schemes. And the talent on that side of the ball is a lot better than you seem to think. If I were a betting man, I would take the Terps and the 21 points. Come to think of it, maybe I will...

Where is this 21 point differential? Where are the odds posted?

terpintime
08-27-2009, 05:20 PM
Jim, the spread was 21 last week. Alas, it has come down to 18, according to what I have heard on the local sports radio station.

ZOOMBAG
08-27-2009, 08:11 PM
Games that appear to be the most interesting. No idea what the spread are so I can go with a gut feel.


South Carolina at NC State – last year the Gamecocks ripped the ‘Pack, 34-0. Lopsided score was due more to a terrible NC State offense than a dominant USC team. The ‘Pack ended strong last year while Spurrier’s magic abandoned him. NC State will win with a good defense vs. ineffective USC offense.

Miami at Florida State – Bowden and his boys have got to be pissed off with all that has happened to the program since 2008. Their OL finally showed some prowess in the Champs Bowl rout over Wisconsin last year. But after graduation the defense is now a question mark but has three solid LBs. Miami, once again with a new OC and DC, will be trying to meld the talent into a consistent unit. The Cane defense was weak last year and 2009 will be a rebuilding year. FSU ought to win this game as FSU makes a legitimate run for the division title.

Maryland at California – Last year Maryland shocked Cal in College Park. Not so this year as a Terp offense is saddled with rebuilding an average (at best) OL from last year. The defense was stripped with graduation. On the other hand, California is considered a team capable of winnign the Pac Ten and beating USC at home. Every year Cal is the recipient of great expectations only to fall flat as the season progresses. Again, Cal starts out strong and wins this game hands down.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta, GA) – The VPI offense, not its trademark, took a serious blow with their star RB’s season-ending injury this summer. Tech’s offense will have to be inventive to compensate. The Hokies defense, as always is a Foster machine. Alabama, after suffering two successive losses, needs to get out of the gate with a super effort. The Tide has a superior OL and big RBs and LBs. If VPI can click with a passing game the Tide secondary will be tested but a one dimensional Hokie offense will not get it done. Even the Hokie defense, as awesome as it is, will eventually get burned by the powerful Crimson Tide. This isn’t the ACC but an SEC power. Expect Alabama to win close but the VPI defense to impress. This should be a tough four full quarters.

Missouri vs. Illinois (St. Louis) – Experts are picking Illinois to beat Missouri. The Tigers have talent but they lost a lot on offense. The defense wasn’t that good last year but it has returning talent as well. All in all this Missouri team, that some thinking very highly of, isn’t the 2008 version. Maybe in 2010? Illinois, on the other hand, probably has the Big Ten’s best offense and it will shine will speed and skill. The defense is good and with time will become more solid. Illinois has too many guns for Mizzou this time out. The Illini should win this one handily..

Toledo at Purdue ??? – The Boilers are going to be competing with Indiana to stay out of the cellar. With a new coach comes a new era and rekindled goals. Too early to expect a consistent beating of the victory drum or have lofty thoughts. 2009 will be rough for Purdue. It will eventually get better for the Boilers. Toledo, formerly a power in the MAC, did beat a poor Michigan team last year in Ann Arbor. Experience is a great teacher. Last year a team with talent was sporadic on offense. Same on defense. A new DC inherits a lot of experience there as well. This game could actually go either way. Being between two teams with issues and inconsistencies, it seems fitting to bring this into the “interesting” column. I’m calling a toss-up with this one.

BYU vs. Oklahoma (Arlington, TX) – The Sooners have a super DL , solid LBs and super RBs on offense. The only relative weakness on D is with the DBs. Offensively OU will take a step back on its punching ability with a new OL and up-and-coming receivers. BYU’s OL lost four starters as well and OU’s DL will make them pay. The Cougar defense started out great in 2008 and then slid. Weaknesses are at the corner. OU has an advantage here even with great TEs at BYU. OU ought to be able to exploit this. Sooners will play an excellent BYU team but the Sooner RBs, DL and Bradford will win the day.

Georgia at Oklahoma State – Georgia has proven never to be underestimated – especially early on. The offense is talented and loaded. The “new” QB is a vet and his skill players are very talented. On defense they will lack a rush but do have excellent DTs and LBs. They’ll eventually come around. OSU, on the other hand, has consistently shown they fall short when a lot is expected of them. The offense is one to drool over with super skill players getting the ball but the defense has proven to be vulnerable. Strong point is with their trio of LBs. I expect a lot of scoring for four quarters. But defense usually wins games and I think Georgia has an advantage here even with a weakened pass rush.

Appalachian State at East Carolina ??? – Not a lot to say about this as both teams get plenty of conversation around the south. ASU always plays tough like Troy. ECU is on the verge. This will be an excellent game and it wouldn’t surprise me to see ASU take this one from the Pirates.

Buffalo at UTEP ??? – So will Buffalo continue on its winning ways. UTEP played Texas tough at home for awhile but never stood a good chance of winning. This game will be interesting as both teams are looking for consistency. Buffalo nailed UTEP last year in New York but isn’t going to surprise anyone anymore. Let’s see if UTEP can turn the corner at home.

Nevada at Notre Dame – Nevada has the offense. Notre Dame has one still being molded. Perhaps the Irish came together in that 49-21 blowout win over Hawaii? A good Nevada team got crushed on opening day in 2007 by one of the worst Nebraska teams in memory. I think the Wolfpack will not have that kind of a meltdown vs. the Irish but the Irish offense will also push Nevada around. I see the luck of the Irish winning the day but having to work for it.

TCU at Virginia – TCU lost a lot of veterans from last year’s 11-2 team. The Frogs have a strong OL and talented newcomer RBs with a proven receiving corps. New OC will initially result in a learning curve. Virginia is still struggling. With an average OL and new skill players other than their QB the Cavaliers will be in a building process for most of the season. Some vets on DL but green everywhere else. TCU ought to win this game on their first trip out of two in a three week span to the ACC.

Oregon at Boise State – The season is a make or break for the Broncos on day one. The Ducks get a solid BSU team in Eugene. We’ll see how the new Oregon coach debuts. A win here by the Ducks indicates great things will be happening at Oregon. Offensively the Ducks aren’t going to miss a beat but the defense will have to have some step up players to apply pressure. BSU has a young line and lost almost all its skill players except for super QB Kellen Moore. A major rebuilding effort on defense is required. Opening up vs. Oregon is a good way to find out what is and isn’t working. The “Quack Attack” prevails in this tough opener for both teams.

Louisiana Tech at Auburn – Let’s face it, Auburn was pathetic last year. That isn’t going to continue but this isn’t a challenger in the SEC West just yet either. Louisiana Tech returns nine starters on offense and has a good DL but the pass defense is bad. Tulsa’s OC has arrived along with Gene Chizik at Auburn. A new DC will help forge a solid Auburn defense that was relied on way too heavily last year. With the new attitude at Auburn they will give it their best shot and do well but I think La. Tech is going to pull a stunner here as the Bulldogs are in place and know what they can do while Auburn is still searching for the chemistry that will work this year.

Troy at Bowling Green – Practically the entire offense returns for Troy and last year they hummed. The return a very fast defense that had one of the nation’s premier pass rushes. The Trojans are set for a very good season. The Falcons of Bowling Green also have a highly potent offense returning but an OL with issues. BGSU’s defense needs to be rebuilt. With Troy set and the lines for the Falcons being question marks I have to go with Troy to open up with a win in a marquise matchup between non-BCS schools.


Slaughters of the Week (there are a number of them I didn't list):

Jacksonville State (-Perilloux) at Georgia Tech
Liberty at West Virginia
North Dakota at Texas Tech
Western Kentucky at Tennessee
Portland State at Oregon State

BYU-OU and UGA-OkSt are my two picks for games to watch. Kudos to OU for scheduling a top 25 nonBCS team, OOC and for UGA to actually get out of the south and play a road game at a top 10 opponent's site.

That TCU-UVA game will be interesting to see just how good TCU is.

The VPI-'Bama game lost some luster with the VPI injury situation but is still an intriguing game, especially since Nebraska has them later in the year.

AFA's first real test for a team that should win 8 games this year, is the following week at Minnesota.

Hubbs
08-29-2009, 05:13 AM
Jim, I was very worried about LT a few weeks ago. Not so much anymore. I am an honest fan (for the most part). That 12 1/2 spread is money in your pocket. Our DL is deep and being coached up by Tracy Rocker (see what he did at Ole Miss last season). Rocker doesn't get the credit of a Malzahn or Trooper Taylor, but he can coach his arss off. He gets the most out of his players.

Auburn was horrible last season. Don't expect Auburn to beat the brains out of a good LT team, but by the midway point of the 2nd half people will start asking themselves a few questions. Is this the same Auburn team from last year? Is this the same Chris Todd from last year? and Who is number 23?

Auburn 27 LT 10

They CAN beat Auburn, but take a chance and win some money. Auburn covers at home.