A word on healthcare, the economy and its dynamics

[Jim]

I was listening to talk radio - no surprise to anyone - today and an orthopedic surgeon called in. The topic was national healthcare so it was to be expected at least some medical people would call in. Anyway, this doctor runs a clinic and I believe its in New York but that really isn't critical regarding his situation. Now he states that they honor the Hippocratic Oath and will treat people requiring their specialties even if the patient can't pay. Obviously they appreciate it when one can. Well, it seems that he and his associates treat a large number of illegal immigrants and others who can't pay for the services rendered. And the largest number of individuals suing them afterwards are these same non-payers and illegals. There is not one orthopedic doctor in his clinic that pays less than $200,000 per year for insurance. He says the costs to them for providing FREE services combined with the insurance premiums are forcing them out of the practice. Now here are physicians who are willing to assist and mend persons who intern want a cash payout afterwards.

The government, stroked like an insatiable John by a bunch of whores through lobbyists and lawyers are giving these same vermin the right to screw people who produce, who earn incomes, who generate the nation's wealth via labor and innovation. The recipients are actually the lawyers themselves that also include lobbyists and other special interests.

So national healthcare is a scheme that is being implemented through a diabolical genius in my opinion. You basically squeeze or suck the life out of the working engine that made this country great and then offer the masses what is being advertised as "free" healthcare. The reason increasing numbers see it as free as those same masses don't pay federal taxes or if they do then the minimum. They are populating like rabbits so their numbers will further assure this new slavery becomes a permanent fixture while responsible people are reducing their numbers simply because they can't afford to support more of their own.

Now with this stimulus package(s). We've already had one that clearly didn't work because large sums went overseas to pay off the big corporate debts. Small business produces 70% of the work, labor, goods and services in this country as well as innovations. Only 30% is actually tied up with the global corporations and bankers. Has anybody noticed that the 70% of our economy - small business - hasn't received a penny and doesn't even generate an afterthought from our congressional/executive leadership? If the big corporations are feeling a pinch you can only imagine what the small business owner and their employees must be feeling. The swelling unemployment rolls speaks for itself. So, why isn't anything being done about 70% of our economy?

Also, this administration now has 32 czars according to a radio talk show host who named them off. Now it should be noted that none of these czars has to respond to any query from the legislative branch of the federal government. I though there were enough cabinet positions with appointments approved by congress to handle the needs of the executive branch. I might add the democratically led congress hasn't offered up as much as a "peep" over this end run and ethical violation of protocol between the two elective branches of government? I guess they really don't mind or are too cowardly to offer resistance on behalf of the people they supposedly represent.

Lawyers have created the healthcare fiasco. I recall Hail to the Victors Valiant saying the insurance industry is trying to keep costs down and manageable. I think not as the entire plaintiff vs. defendant scenario is run by lawyers who each get paid and the more the better - for them.

The government - republican or democrat - is putridly corrupt. Now democrat lovers will jump right on board when it comes to finger pointing at the republicans while going completely mum on their own. That disgusts me. For the record, I, who voted for Bush, had little good to say about his administration as it played out. That is a fact regardless of whatever some of the young guns around here offer up as a rebuttal. But they will not admit they're as screwed up by voting for/supporting the current administration. Now that same administration is talking about a second and possibly third stimulus.

Unless this suicide is arrested immediately we are doomed. It can't happen here huh? Go ahead and laugh at me. Destruction has resulted in every other time and place where this situation has been given birth and allowed to grow. Read your history. Those histories written before the revisionists became the final word in our educational system.

[Jim]

Reagan had three czars, Clinton had nine and Bush had a dozen. Obama has 32 and is proposing a Healthcare Choices czar or a 33rd. A representative from Georgia (can't recall his name) proposed that czars be appointed only after congressional confirmation. The rationale was that they needed congressional approval for funds. It was defeated by the democratic majority. You know that the czars answer only to the president.

Also, I may have misheard this ... around $120 billion of the $787 billion stimulus was actually marked for stimulus. What of the rest of it?

Additionally, tax surcharges on those who pay taxes is also coming as well as paying the taxes on your income used by you to pay your medical premiums prior to paying ever increasing medical premiums.

[Hail to the Victors Valiant]

States are using stimulus funds to balance its respective state budget and to pay down debt and not to create new jobs as the money was intended for. Maybe it is time to give money directly to people and smaller businesses in order to boost consumer spending. Or, do not release the 90%-plus of stimulus money balance until jobs for legal Americans are proven to be created.

[MasterBevo]

States are going broke at an alarming rate... and, it's not just California...

This is probably the Next Big Shoe to fall on this economy....

Folks... we're in BAD, BAD financial shape... and, this is no time to be adding trillions more to our outlay and crushing industrial growth with taxes on energy... We won't make it 5 years if they do these things.... no way.

[ZOOMBAG]

We already did that. People paid down debt and balance their budgets with it....just like the states.

The reality is that we are in the biggest "buy down" of personal debt and the biggest saving binge in several generations, and until the orgy of national personal debt accumulated over the past 20 years is largely settled, NO amount of "stimulus" is going to bring back consumption.

[tigercpa]

Mr. Obama, in explaining away Biden's gaffe, has now stated that the stimulus was passed on the basis of "incomplete information." So, the President and Congress spent nearly a trillion dollars without exercising due diligence.

Are there any adults in Washington? Does anyone on the Goldman Sachs farm team know how to cipher as least as well as Jethro Bodine?

A wing and a prayer do not constitute a grown up approach to the economy.

[tigercpa]

Reagan had three czars, Clinton had nine and Bush had a dozen. Obama has 32 and is proposing a Healthcare Choices czar or a 33rd. A representative from Georgia (can't recall his name) proposed that czars be appointed only after congressional confirmation. The rationale was that they needed congressional approval for funds. It was defeated by the democratic majority. You know that the czars answer only to the president.

Also, I may have misheard this ... around $120 billion of the $787 billion stimulus was actually marked for stimulus. What of the rest of it?

Additionally, tax surcharges on those who pay taxes is also coming as well as paying the taxes on your income used by you to pay your medical premiums prior to paying ever increasing medical premiums.

And, true unemployment is now close to 20%.

This is scary folks. For those clinging to guns and religion, I strongly emphasize the former.

Being seen with a bag of groceries in your arms may become life-threatening.

[Jim]

States are using stimulus funds to balance its respective state budget and to pay down debt and not to create new jobs as the money was intended for. Maybe it is time to give money directly to people and smaller businesses in order to boost consumer spending. Or, do not release the 90%-plus of stimulus money balance until jobs for legal Americans are proven to be created.

Where do the funds come from? Which states are actually doing this? How much money are we talking about? Is it part of the $787 billion?

[Jim]

And, true unemployment is now close to 20%.

This is scary folks. For those clinging to guns and religion, I strongly emphasize the former.

Being seen with a bag of groceries in your arms may become life-threatening.

I know in Michigan, Ohio and perhaps California it is double digit but ...

[Hail to the Victors Valiant]

Where do the funds come from? Which states are actually doing this? How much money are we talking about? Is it part of the $787 billion?

--

On Bloomberg News this morning, it was stated that almost of the states were doing this to meet this year's payroll and to continue paying for ongoing or completed projects and not for new ones. It was the SC Guv who stated publicly that because he was told not to use the money to pay down the state debt, he did not want any money from Obama. When he was asked about what debt he had incurred on behalf the state that needs to be repaid with stimulus funds, he responded that it was mostly the debt taken to meet the state's payroll last year. Perhaps, this is what is being meant buy saving jobs, but I am not sure.

[tigercpa]

I know in Michigan, Ohio and perhaps California it is double digit but ...

Jim, we've been double-digit for a long time.

Even back when Bush was reporting 5, we were at 10, truth be told.

[Hail to the Victors Valiant]

I know in Michigan, Ohio and perhaps California it is double digit but ...

---

The unemployment rate in the US is computed much differently than it is in many Euro nations. Here, we use a numerator of the number of weekly filings for unemployment benefits and not the actual number of able workers not working at all, or at least on the books as is done in Europe. 10-12% here can easily be 20% in Europe.

Underemployment (fewer hours) and downgraded employment (take a job that requires less qualifications than the one you had before) are not computed in the statistics in any of these places. There's even rioting by the unemployed in rural China where many of the toy and clothes factories had been located. As many have posted already, things are getting very interesting.

I've increased my advertising reach in legal practice areas such as bankruptcy, divorce, foreclosure and small business breach of contract law. Credit Suisse Bank predicts that 2013 will be when the peak of US foreclosures occur. I need to staff accordingly. I'm also hoping that Mich football improves soon so that they rarely play in the 12NOON game on Saturdays when I often work a half day to do what I have to do and still leave quality time for having fun.

[Jim]

---

The unemployment rate in the US is computed much differently than it is in many Euro nations. Here, we use a numerator of the number of weekly filings for unemployment benefits and not the actual number of able workers not working at all, or at least on the books as is done in Europe. 10-12% here can easily be 20% in Europe.

Underemployment (fewer hours) and downgraded employment (take a job that requires less qualifications than the one you had before) and not computed in the statistics in any of these places. There's even rioting by the unemployed in rural China where many of the toy and clothes factories had been located. As many have posted already, things are getting very interesting.

I've increased my advertising reach in legal practice areas such as bankruptcy, divorce, foreclosure and small business breach of contract law. Credit Suisse Bank predicts that 2013 will be when the peak of US foreclosures occur. I need to staff accordingly. I'm also hoping that Mich football improves soon so that they rarely play in the 12NOON game on Saturdays when I often work a half day to do what I have to do and still leave quality time for having fun.

So I wouldn't necessarily be wrong to say that our numbers aren't a true reflection of how many are unemployed? How much worse do you actually think it is (you're more into this than I obviously). They're based more on who is calling in from week to week to continue their claims - or initiate new ones. I know, I've been there myself (Seattle 2001, NASDAQ collapse).

As a side note, my youngest daughter has a friend who lives up in Seattle and reports that her boyfriend, an IT specialist, can't even get a job at Burger King. To read the Seattle Times you don't hear this.

And, as much as I don't wish continud bad tidings to Rich Rodriguez, I do want Michigan to stall a bit on winning as I truly want my beloved Oklahoma Sooners to surpass them as the winningest (at least in percentage).

[tigercpa]

So I wouldn't necessarily be wrong to say that our numbers aren't a true reflection of how many are unemployed? How much worse do you actually think it is (you're more into this than I obviously). They're based more on who is calling in from week to week to continue their claims - or initiate new ones. I know, I've been there myself (Seattle 2001, NASDAQ collapse).

As a side note, my youngest daughter has a friend who lives up in Seattle and reports that her boyfriend, an IT specialist, can't even get a job at Burger King. To read the Seattle Times you don't hear this.

And, as much as I don't wish continud bad tidings to Rich Rodriguez, I do want Michigan to stall a bit on winning as I truly want my beloved Oklahoma Sooners to surpass them as the winningest (at least in percentage).

Jim, the unemployment numbers "as reported" have been undercut for decades. Each admin tweaks the number, the calc, or the definiton.

Really, how hard is it to find a job? Was June's horrid numbers, in which 467,000 people lost their jobs compared to 345,000 in May, a one-time fluke? Or does it mean that all those Wall Street economists who believe the economic recovery is starting are dead wrong?

Not to scare you, but the situation is actually worse than it seems. Over the years, the government has changed the way it counts the unemployed. An example of this is the criticized Birth-Death Model which was added in 2000. The model is designed to account for the birth and death of businesses and the resultant lag in survey data. Unfortunately, the model doesn't work that well during economic contractions (like we have now) and consistently overstates the number of jobs being created each month.

John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics specializes in removing these questionable tweaks to the government's statistical data to better align current numbers with the methodology used to gather historical data. After reviewing the data, Williams believes that "the June jobs loss likely exceeded 700,000." David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff notes that the fall in the number of hours worked in June (to a record low of 33 per week) is equivalent to a loss of more than 800,000 jobs.

There are similar issues with the way the unemployment rate is measured. The headline rate only jumped from 9.4% to 9.5% because of a drop in the number of people in the workforce. The more inclusive "U-6" measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, jumped from 16.4% to 16.5%. But even this doesn't adequately capture the situation on the ground

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/07/06/true-unemployment-rate-already-at-20.aspx

Here is my simplified, but truer calc:

The unemployment rate is based on people actually seeking work.

The unemployment rate DOES NOT include people who have stopped looking for work. So make sure you add these back in.

It also does not include most students seeking work during breaks. Most students were never in the workforce to be initially counted (because they were in school...not actively seeking work). There is no way (that I know of) to count these seasonally unemployed accurately. So don’t forget to add these too.

Unemployment benefits only last 6 mos (+ Federal extension). After that you’re removed from the “unemployment” number. Oops, gotta add these too.

As you can see the actual number starts getting pretty big.

Basically, after your unemployment runs out and you haven’t found a job you’re no longer unemployed and the “unemployment rate” goes down. Isn’t government math grand?

Like I said, in the government’s defense the unemployment number has always been factored the way it is today.

[Jim]

the criticized Birth-Death Model which was added in 2000. The model is designed to account for the birth and death of businesses and the resultant lag in survey data. Unfortunately, the model doesn't work that well during economic contractions (like we have now) and consistently overstates the number of jobs being created each month.

Very interesting as I wasn't awarre of this model. I've always thorught the numbers were fudged with since statistics lie all the time and we know about the government ...


Williams believes that "the June jobs loss likely exceeded 700,000." David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff notes that the fall in the number of hours worked in June (to a record low of 33 per week) is equivalent to a loss of more than 800,000 jobs.

I hadn't really considered a cumulative reduced hours (vs. 40/wk) and how this can translate into vastly different numbers.


There are similar issues with the way the unemployment rate is measured. The headline rate only jumped from 9.4% to 9.5% because of a drop in the number of people in the workforce. The more inclusive "U-6" measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, jumped from 16.4% to 16.5%. But even this doesn't adequately capture the situation on the ground

Fascinating. By worming your way around the statistics you can actually see the truth. Now people are going to question the "motives" of Williams and like-minded individuals.



http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/07/06/true-unemployment-rate-already-at-20.aspx

Here is my simplified, but truer calc:

The unemployment rate is based on people actually seeking work.

The unemployment rate DOES NOT include people who have stopped looking for work. So make sure you add these back in.

It also does not include most students seeking work during breaks. Most students were never in the workforce to be initially counted (because they were in school...not actively seeking work). There is no way (that I know of) to count these seasonally unemployed accurately. So don’t forget to add these too.

Unemployment benefits only last 6 mos (+ Federal extension). After that you’re removed from the “unemployment” number. Oops, gotta add these too.

As you can see the actual number starts getting pretty big.

Basically, after your unemployment runs out and you haven’t found a job you’re no longer unemployed and the “unemployment rate” goes down. Isn’t government math grand?

Like I said, in the government’s defense the unemployment number has always been factored the way it is today.

I like your methodology. Looks like things are pretty bad. Hard to imagine it was that bad ... virtually 1/6th of our productive manpower is idle (based on hours). I think it rose to 25% during the Great Depression. But back then we still had manufacturing potential that was idle and were far more rural as a people.

[tigercpa]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_bj0fdAQOI98/SkdOhChEelI/AAAAAAAAA4I/wOHICyL5YQY/s400/583.jpg


Obama is their Carter and Palin is their Reagan.

[tigercpa]

Very interesting as I wasn't awarre of this model. I've always thorught the numbers were fudged with since statistics lie all the time and we know about the government ...



I hadn't really considered a cumulative reduced hours (vs. 40/wk) and how this can translate into vastly different numbers.



Fascinating. By worming your way around the statistics you can actually see the truth. Now people are going to question the "motives" of Williams and like-minded individuals.



I like your methodology. Looks like things are pretty bad. Hard to imagine it was that bad ... virtually 1/6th of our productive manpower is idle (based on hours). I think it rose to 25% during the Great Depression. But back then we still had manufacturing potential that was idle and were far more rural as a people.


U-6 is not a bad proxy either, in any case, it's bad. Much worse than the headline numebrs that get feed to the folks.

[MasterBevo]

In Kentucky, I've heard several times that we have a $1.1 Billion budget shortfall this year.... They are using $670 Million of the Stimulus money to help close the gap THIS year... but, they're not sure what to do about next year..

So.. yea, States clearly are using stimulous money for general funds...

[Hero1957]

There is a site called Shadowstats which keeps up with the statistics and contrasts them with the latest government stats. Their method has unemployment over 20% now.

[Jim]

In Kentucky, I've heard several times that we have a $1.1 Billion budget shortfall this year.... They are using $670 Million of the Stimulus money to help close the gap THIS year... but, they're not sure what to do about next year..

So.. yea, States clearly are using stimulous money for general funds...

... only on a smaller scale. Was watching Glenn Beck on Fox News. Cal is going to get $50 billion over the next 3 or 4 years from the hard working taxpayers across the nation. They're still $26 billion in the shitter at this time. Hospitals, schools and prisons are going to be reduced. Very painful - especially for those who are going to get mugged, raped and murdered shortly as a result. BTW, a coworker of mine has a son who teaches in Long Beach (yep, the last place in SoCal I'd want to have an address). He was at the school for 12 years (he was one of 14 "let go"). Has a MEd and is a bilingual English teacher. He got his walking papers last week. Sorry thing is that school administrators all get to keep their cushy jobs where they spend their careers imposing federal PC on the future generations of this nation. Those on the front lines, the ones trying to do their jobs, get to look for other employment.

[Hail to the Victors Valiant]

Recent Corporate Communications Director of CIGNA was the featured guest on Bill Moyer's Journal last night and he made some interesting points.

1. Today's decision on health care reform is about which beuracrat do we want deciding one's personal medical decisions: one from the government or one from the private insurance company. Each has a different main priority. Govt wants coverage for all to help get reelected while Ins Co wants coverage for none to max profit and increase shareholder value. Noticably missing was the medical doctor due to fear that docs overcharge and perform unnecessary procedures and tests.

2. Major Insurance Companies lobby heavily on Capitol Hill to both parties and have a main goal of preserving their right to decide what medical tests and procedures are to be reimburseable. He said the peak of the lobbying occurred in defeating Clinton's doctor's decide medical reform plan and they showed memos distributed from lobbyists to both parties' leaders and powerful senators towing the perty line as written in these 2 tailored memos. They knew that GOP wanted no govt interference and Dems wanted cost contol so the memos attacked each issue strategically.

3. Ins Companies would strongarm politicians who did not vocalize the speaking points by running negative ad campaigns in his or her local districts.

4. Paying doctors on invoices submitted would be delayed so that the medical provider would lose memory on what steps were taken before performing work. This way, 1 year later, the company would decline coverage stating that no prior approval was obtained or that the patient's policy no longer had covered such service or test. They knew turnover of employees were high so delay led to higher profits and shareholder value. The doctor or hospital were left to collect money from patients who, in turn, sought personal bankruptcy attorneys or charitable contributions for assistance.