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CJHawkeyes
06-02-2007, 01:16 PM
The more I think about it, the more obvious it becomes that the lack of transparent equitable objective rules to determine I-A’s national champion is deliberate. Regardless of any arguments against a particular set of rules, I believe BCS schools know that equitable objective rules would undermine their ability control major college football. The free market bowl system has not prevented nonBCS schools from competing anywhere near as much as polls have. Polls are institutionally biased in favor of BCS schools for reasons that have nothing to do with determining the winner of a competition. The lack of accountability of polls and the resulting unwritten rules which all but guarantee unbeaten BCS schools a national title and eliminate nonBCS schools from contention before a single game is played has predetermined the value of each group in the free market bowl system. However, imagine, for example, that the NCAA determined I-A’s national title by ranking teams best to worst record, opponents’ record, and so on, since the classification was created in 1978. Although I favor rules that demand stronger schedules, I believe the case against ranking teams by records is weak and any objections by BCS schools against doing so would not only be hypocritical but would actually serve as a gigantic smokescreen.

Think about it. What would have happened if these rules were embraced from the beginning of I-A? First of all, nonBCS schools would be significantly more viable options for recruits. The difference between knowing that an unbeaten season equals a probable national title versus knowing that you have a better chance of winning the lottery than a poll/BCS title at a nonBCS school is huge. While brand names may remain the more popular choice, the fact that they would not remain the only choice for those with national title aspirations would lead to better nonBCS teams and more parity between the two groups . Even better for nonBCS schools is that their value in the free market bowl system would have been much greater. How much more interest would there be in signing nonBCS conferences to bowl tie-ins if an unbeaten team is definitely in contention for the national title? And how much more would those tie-ins be worth financially if a then minor bowl served as the de facto national title game? Furthermore, nonBCS schools would no longer be at the mercy of BCS schools where scheduling is concerned. With an unbeaten season having the same value everywhere, nonBCS schools would no longer need to play an undefined "legitimate" schedule filled with road games against teams that gain nothing by playing such games themselves and can afford to play I-AA opponents instead.

The bottom line for me is that nonBCS schools do not actually have to start their own playoff to get the ball rolling towards a more equitable system. They would actually be better off demanding the NCAA formally recognize a national champion within the bowl system according to agreed upon objective rules. I guarantee BCS schools would stand in opposition and further expose themselves for the greedy and anti-competitive cartel that they are. I bet even if nonBCS schools agreed to remove themselves from BCS consideration with the stipulation that the official NCAA champion be determined by records, BCS schools would oppose it. And they wouldn’t oppose it because such rules would encourage and reward weak schedules, but rather because any equitable objective rules would undermine their authority. Without the pretense of being all-inclusive to I-A, the BCS product becomes less valuable, especially if any nonBCS bowl serves as a potential national title game. Imagine two separate but equal I-As last year, each with its own bowl system . You have Ohio State-Florida for the BCS title and Boise State-BYU for the nonBCS title with Ohio State, Boise State, and Florida controlling their national title destinies in that order. Imagine the Broncos ultimately hoisting the NCAA championship trophy and try telling me that BCS schools would only oppose ranking teams by records because of the schedule argument. They would oppose such rules because such equitable rules would give nonBCS schools power they have never had.

I also have no doubt that BCS schools would oppose the rules I do favor. Despite results quite comparable to polls, BCS schools would oppose these rules because the rules show nonBCS schools more respect than unaccountable polls, are themselves accountable, provide nonBCS schools a blueprint for competing for the national title, and do not place nonBCS schools at the mercy of BCS schools where scheduling is concerned. Ultimately, BCS schools would oppose any transparent equitable objective rules because they would be accountable to such rules and this would diminish their control over major college football. So long as college football is governed by institutionally biased “rules” installed by BCS schools, BCS schools are accountable to no one but themselves. As such, they can’t lose. The rules are designed that way.

Blue Hen
06-03-2007, 06:33 AM
Common knowledge, CJH, common knowledge...............polls are a joke !.....and CF fans that worship them as something legitimate are among the dumbest, most gullable sports fans in the world. Now, I know that's a strong statement, boys, but here is all you have to know about the intregity of CF 'polls' :

2005 season - Oklahoma is ranked very highly in the idiotic pre season , so called ,'coaches' poll. TCU is either unranked or very lowly ranked ( can't remember). Anyway, opening game for both - TCU visits Oklahoma and beats the Sooners , 17-10. Two days later the next , so called, 'coaches; poll comes out and guess what ??....0-1 Oklahoma is still 'ranked' several slots above 1-0 TCU !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why ? - because polls are a joke, that's why. Name brand recognition sometimes counts for more than actual on field results and performance.
Same season - 2-0 , unranked ( or very lowly ranked) Michigan State goes into South Bend and beats higher ranked, 2-0 Notre Dame. Very next 'poll' still shows 3-0 Michigan State ranked 'BELOW' 2-1 Notre , right after beating them on ND's home field ! Why ? ...because polls are a joke !

FLORIDA HERD FAN
06-03-2007, 09:08 AM
That was thoughtful and well-presented, CJ.

The non-BCS conferences are substantially to blame for allowing the BCS to control the post-season. Non-BCS conferences tossed principles out of the window when they chose to accept a few BCS crumbs in exchange for marginalizing the authority of the NCAA.

You are on target about polls. However, playoffs are the great equalizer. The #16-seed in a D-IAA playoff has the very same right as does the #1-seed to put 11 players on the field and compete for the championship. Polls become irrelevant in playoffs.

I really like the concept you set forth in another string of what would essentially be D-IA playoffs featuring, by default, non-BCS conference teams. I would favor such playoffs being conducted under the auspices of the NCAA, allowing eligible BCS conference teams to participate in the playoffs if they so choose, and with non-BCS conferences withdrawing from the BCS.

In due course, both the BCS and playoffs might survive, perhaps even prosper, or maybe one would fail. The free market would ultimately make that decision.

GatorGrad
06-03-2007, 10:56 AM
CJ - Can you re-post your exact suggested formula for objective D1 Rankings? The one that involves overall record, opponent record, etc?

My main question is, do you suggest that overall record comes first no matter what and then teams with identical records then use opponent record (S0S) as a tie-breaker?

Or is there a formula using these factors that could lead to a one-loss team actually finishing ahead of an unbeaten team?

Finally, a question for all: If we had such objective standings in D1, would nonBCS fans be OK with the current 2-team "playoff" that we now have? What about a 4-team mini playoff? Or would you still need all conference champions to all get an auto bid or have a 16-team tournament to be satified?

CJHawkeyes
06-03-2007, 11:23 AM
CJ - Can you re-post your exact suggested formula for objective D1 Rankings? The one that involves overall record, opponent record, etc?

My main question is, do you suggest that overall record comes first no matter what and then teams with identical records then use opponent record (S0S) as a tie-breaker?

Or is there a formula using these factors that could lead to a one-loss team actually finishing ahead of an unbeaten team?

Finally, a question for all: If we had such objective standings in D1, would nonBCS fans be OK with the current 2-team "playoff" that we now have? What about a 4-team mini playoff? Or would you still need all conference champions to all get an auto bid or have a 16-team tournament to be satified?

I often suggest ranking teams best to worst record, opponents' record, and so on, to make a point. Such rules would not be my first choice for the same reason you object to them. However, there is no doubt in my mind that the competitive gulf that exists today would not exist if teams were ranked in this manner from the beginning. I also think the pursuit of weak schedules would be easier said than done. Nevertheless, I devised rules that require stronger schedules. I think everyone would rather compete under rules that challenge their team. Under these rules, teams are placed most to least power points (games won opponents' wins - games lost opponents' losses), net wins (wins - losses), schedule strength (opponents' power points), and net points (points for - points against).

As for a playoff, I still favor a 16 team playoff, but I would be thrilled with a four team playoff with participants determined by either manner mentioned above.

GatorGrad
06-03-2007, 11:41 AM
I would be fine seeing an actual mathmatical formula that produces objective standings. Something like 75% winning percentage + 25% opponent winning percentage. This way, win/loss record is clearly the most important factor, but your SOS means something too. It would also create a lot more interest in college football as fans not only will be rooting for their own team, but the other 12 teams that their team has on their schedule every week. It could do for college football what fantasy football does for the NFL.

However, something like this is probably far-fetched, and it would not solve the issue of nonBCS schools being penalized for their scheduling disadvantages. The minute an unbeaten mid major finishes behing a one loss BCS team, we would be back to square one. But with a 4-team playoff, perhaps that would be enough to include unbeaten mid majors with a new objective system? They certainly would have a better shot with an objective ranking system rather than the biased polls that we have now.

CJHawkeyes
06-03-2007, 12:16 PM
Actually, the higher placed team under my system owns an equal or better record around 95% of the time. As for nonBCS schools, an unbeaten mid-major missing out is my concern regarding a four team playoff. However, the rules I favor treat nonBCS teams much better than polls. NonBCS teams could actually play a schedule full of other nonBCS teams and qualify. Furthermore, these rules make them very desirable opponents to BCS schools. BTW, your 75-25 formula would make it even easier for nonBCS schools to make a four team playoff. Based on a 12 game schedule, a team's opponents would have to be 37 games better than another's to overcome a one game deficit. Therefore, teams would essientially be ranked by their records.

GatorGrad
06-03-2007, 12:45 PM
BTW, your 75-25 formula would make it even easier for nonBCS schools to make a four team playoff. Based on a 12 game schedule, a team's opponents would have to be 37 games better than another's to overcome a one game deficit. Therefore, teams would essientially be ranked by their records.

Right...the idea from my perspective would be to make it mostly about overall record, but at least have a SOS element involved to where a one-loss team that played a very very hard schedule could possibly finish ahead of an unbeaten team that played a very very easy schedule. I'm not sure what the right breakdown would be percentage-wise, but you get the point.

And if there were a 4-team playoff in place using such an objective standing system, I think that a nonBCS team going unbeaten would have a very very fair shot at finishing in the top four as you pointed out. So maybe you're right - maybe a fair objective standings system would be better than an actual playoff which doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon based on the latest info coming out of these summer conference meetings.

My prediction? Starting with the 2010 season, you will see a 4-team plus one type of BCS Playoff. Now if only they would consider dropping human polls and just going by a similar objective standing system as you suggest, we could be on the right track! Easier said that done, however.