ZOOMBAG
11-24-2008, 09:04 PM
A lot of things are getting more clear now as most conferences are decided. The Massey Composite has some rather significant moves this week, causing some surprising shifts in playoff bid shuffling.
The MAC still has a very slight edge over the WAC for the #8 conference rating, which now has even more impact on the overall playoff issue. More on that later.
First the Conference races
Big East -- Cincy clinches with a win over Syracuse. Otherwise WVU would still need to beat Pitt and USF to claim the title. Cincy is a pretty safe bet to get the playoff bid out of the Big East
ACC -- this conference has been an unpredictable mess all season. In the Atlantic Division Florida St dispatched Maryland and finished their conference season 5-3. That gives them the tie breaker over Maryland. But they lost to BC who still has Maryland to go. If BC wins that BC represents the division, if Maryland wins, then FSU gets the nod. In the other division, Georgia Tech finished their season by spanking Miami badly to finish 5-3 so they have the tie breaker over Miami but they lost to Virginia Tech who, in turn, lost to Miami. So the top three in that division are all 1-1 against each other. VT has Virginia yet, so we are not done quite yet here.
SEC -- Alabama and Florida and this has been decided for some time now.
Big 12 -- The South is still up in the air with the biggest game left in the derby being OU at Ok St. If Ok St. pulls the upset it sends Texas Tech to the Big 12 title game, otherwise it boils down to a ridiculous beauty contest to pick between Texas or OU for who gets to spank Missouri in the title game.
Big 10 -- Penn St clinches the title and the autobid.
Pac 10 -- Oregon St needs one more win to clinch as they hold the tie breaker over USC.
MWC - Utah clinced the league.
MAC -- The MAC still comes down to this week's game between Ball St and W Michigan. Ball St eliminated C Michigan last week. Buffalo takes the East and will lose to however they face in the MAC title game. But imagine Turner Gill's Buffalo squad in a national playoff????
WAC -- Just in case the WAC pulls ahead, BSU has clinched the WAC regardless of what happens with Fresno St this week.
The Massey Ratings -- Big shifts this week. Texas gets to #1 and Alabama falls to #4 even undefeated. OU pops up to #2 while Florida holds at #3. Texas Tech only drops to #6 in the Massey rating with their blowout loss, still ahead of Penn St. Utah is in a #8 but Ohio St and Boise St flip-flop, which is huge for the at-large!
If Oregon St wins Saturday AND the MAC stays ahead of the WAC it means four teams outside the top 12 are getting autobids. That means you have to be #8 or higher to get an at-large. As it sits now The SEC gets one at-large unless 'Bama loses to Auburn and/or gets blown out by Florida and drops more than four slots. The Big 12, right now gets two at-large if OU, Texas and Texas Tech all win this weekend. That leaves one at-large left meaning USC gets that one.
For Ohio St to get in at #9 they really need Oregon to beat Oregon St and give the PAC 10 title to USC, who should beat UCLA and Notre Dame. But Boise is likely to leap Ohio St with a win over Fresno Saturday giving that slot to Boise. But if Hawaii beats Cincy the following week that aces out Ball St (or the MAC winner) and Boise is now an autobid giving the at-large to Ohio St.
Following all that? Fun thing is, all these remaining games are still crucial to how this hypothetical playoff plays out. And if someone throws a monkey wrench into the thing such as Florida St upsetting Florida, we get a real interesting final week in Dec....
The MAC still has a very slight edge over the WAC for the #8 conference rating, which now has even more impact on the overall playoff issue. More on that later.
First the Conference races
Big East -- Cincy clinches with a win over Syracuse. Otherwise WVU would still need to beat Pitt and USF to claim the title. Cincy is a pretty safe bet to get the playoff bid out of the Big East
ACC -- this conference has been an unpredictable mess all season. In the Atlantic Division Florida St dispatched Maryland and finished their conference season 5-3. That gives them the tie breaker over Maryland. But they lost to BC who still has Maryland to go. If BC wins that BC represents the division, if Maryland wins, then FSU gets the nod. In the other division, Georgia Tech finished their season by spanking Miami badly to finish 5-3 so they have the tie breaker over Miami but they lost to Virginia Tech who, in turn, lost to Miami. So the top three in that division are all 1-1 against each other. VT has Virginia yet, so we are not done quite yet here.
SEC -- Alabama and Florida and this has been decided for some time now.
Big 12 -- The South is still up in the air with the biggest game left in the derby being OU at Ok St. If Ok St. pulls the upset it sends Texas Tech to the Big 12 title game, otherwise it boils down to a ridiculous beauty contest to pick between Texas or OU for who gets to spank Missouri in the title game.
Big 10 -- Penn St clinches the title and the autobid.
Pac 10 -- Oregon St needs one more win to clinch as they hold the tie breaker over USC.
MWC - Utah clinced the league.
MAC -- The MAC still comes down to this week's game between Ball St and W Michigan. Ball St eliminated C Michigan last week. Buffalo takes the East and will lose to however they face in the MAC title game. But imagine Turner Gill's Buffalo squad in a national playoff????
WAC -- Just in case the WAC pulls ahead, BSU has clinched the WAC regardless of what happens with Fresno St this week.
The Massey Ratings -- Big shifts this week. Texas gets to #1 and Alabama falls to #4 even undefeated. OU pops up to #2 while Florida holds at #3. Texas Tech only drops to #6 in the Massey rating with their blowout loss, still ahead of Penn St. Utah is in a #8 but Ohio St and Boise St flip-flop, which is huge for the at-large!
If Oregon St wins Saturday AND the MAC stays ahead of the WAC it means four teams outside the top 12 are getting autobids. That means you have to be #8 or higher to get an at-large. As it sits now The SEC gets one at-large unless 'Bama loses to Auburn and/or gets blown out by Florida and drops more than four slots. The Big 12, right now gets two at-large if OU, Texas and Texas Tech all win this weekend. That leaves one at-large left meaning USC gets that one.
For Ohio St to get in at #9 they really need Oregon to beat Oregon St and give the PAC 10 title to USC, who should beat UCLA and Notre Dame. But Boise is likely to leap Ohio St with a win over Fresno Saturday giving that slot to Boise. But if Hawaii beats Cincy the following week that aces out Ball St (or the MAC winner) and Boise is now an autobid giving the at-large to Ohio St.
Following all that? Fun thing is, all these remaining games are still crucial to how this hypothetical playoff plays out. And if someone throws a monkey wrench into the thing such as Florida St upsetting Florida, we get a real interesting final week in Dec....