The Next Great Conference Shake-Up

[EvilVodka]

With all the "Big 10 + Notre Dame" threads, I started looking at where the next great expansion shuffle could happen if it did happen at all...

The Big East could split, and the football schools could form a new conference, or the Mountain West could expand to 12, but those are still relatively small compared to the ACC raid

So I'm guessing if anything happened, it would be some kind of split in the Big XII...and why would this happen?

The first real question to ask is -- is this a successful conference? For the time being, its a stable conference, but successful?

How did this conference actually form anyways? I don't remember exactly, but I remember the PAC 10 was eyeing Texas, and Texas A&M was thinking SEC, but they both joined the Big 8, Texas Tech and Baylor were both shoved into the deal by Texas politics

Here's a link on that:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/083006dnspobaylortcusf.4bf22e33.html

Anyways...here's a link to an article by BigRedNetwork about percieved success in the Big XII over the first 10 years:
http://bigrednetwork.com/archives/2006/05/the_big_xii_after_ten_years_wi_1.html

And among the perceived history is the fact that the Big XII championship game has been lacking and actually cost the conference several national championship appearances as well as a lot of criticism for teams that have lost the conference championship and still played in the BCS Title game -- Nebraska '01, Oklahoma '03

Several things have also occurred...OU and Texas seem to enjoy being in a conference together, Nebraska football has plummeted, the needs and wants of the conference seem to have polarized by division...

So anyways, I've got 2 scenarios where the Big XII splits...

SCENARIO 1
Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma privately start exploring the possibilities of forming a new conference...the idea is to contact the California schools of the PAC 10 (USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal) and see if they'd be interested...Scenario 1 is the "yes" answer

Basically, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma convince Colorado to join them, split from the Big XII, and form a new conference called The Golden West Conference, where USC, UCLA, Stanford, and Cal are invited, and leave the PAC 10 as a collective group

The Golden West Conference
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Colorado
USC
UCLA
Stanford
California

Now the question to ask is -- why would the California schools leave the PAC 10? Well, they've never been fond of the state schools such as Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State...and here would be a chance to merge with academic like-minded institutions in Colorado and Texas...A&M and Oklahoma aren't as attractive, but are fine institutions and deemed acceptable as part of the plan...Among other things, the national relevance of the sports programs would be boosted, and the Rose Bowl would follow the california schools...geography would be strained somewhat, but the possibility of expansion to 9 or 10 would always exist


The rest of the PAC 10 schools that are left over (Washington, Wash St., Oregon, Oregon St., Arizona, Arizona St.) would respond quickly with invites to BYU & Utah, as well as Fresno State and San Diego State to keep a presence in California

New PAC 10
Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Utah
Fresno State
San Diego State

The rest of the Big XII would also scramble to replace departed members...TCU and Memphis would probably be invited...Missouri might be picked up by the Big 10...I'm guessing the conference would retain the name the Big XII and probably evalutate expansion slowly once the conference was at a functional level again

New Big XII
Nebraska
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri --> possibly invited to Big 10
Iowa State
TCU
Memphis
Baylor
Texas Tech

SCENARIO 2

Scenario 2 is basically the same thing, except the California schools turn down the idea handed them by Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M

Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M would probably still break away from the Big XII and take the rest of the South Division with them (Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State) to form a new SouthWest Conference

Colorado would probably be asked to join them, and the new SWC might talk with Arkansas about a possibly invite...TCU would probably be invited as well

New South West Conference
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
possibly Colorado
possibly Arkansas

The rest of the Big XII would either have to merge with Mountain West schools, C-USA schools, or a mixture of the two...Utah and BYU would be good candidates...Air Force, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, and Memphis would probably be looked at as well...Missouri could possibly be picked up by the Big 10 in this scenario as well

new Big XII
Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri --> possible Big 10 invite
Utah
BYU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force

************************************************** *********

Anyways, if another great conference shake-up happens, I'm thinking Big XII....because its debatable whether or not the merger between the former SWC and Big 8 was a success or not...

[Jim]

Very good job. Lots of discussion points. YOu must be happy that Jamall got drafted #1?

[Okole]

i know the talk here in texas is that arky would like a shot at us every year again.

but if i was arky, i don't think i'd want to leave the SEC

[happjack]

There is no way Cal or UCLA would be in any conference with Texas A&M.

[EvilVodka]

Thought I'd revive this thread with all the Big 10 expansion talk within the last couple weeks...here's a couple new scenarios that I think will happen if/when the Big 10 expands, depending on who they would invite:

Scenario 1-Big 10 invites Nebraska
If the Big 10 invited Nebraska, I'd imagine they'd probably accept and the Big XII would start looking for a 12th team...which after an extensive analysis, would be Arkansas

Arkansas makes way too much $$ in a relatively stable conference to leave...in which case, the search for a 12th team would stall...BYU and Utah might get looked, but I'd bet politics would come into play, and BYU and Utah would only accept if invited as a pair...Texas would bawk at BYU

At this point tensions could start running high between Missouri, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, and the South Division schools about what to do...Texas and OU have publicly said they don't like the championship game, and may not want to go to 12...the remaining North schools may not like this, and this could all lead to a split in the conference, with the South Division schools leaving to form their own conference

At this point, Colorado might see how the PAC 10 is doing, or if they'd be interested in a Big XII refugee...if not, I could see Colorado sticking with the South Division schools

The new conference [New SWC basically] would probably add some combination of New Mexico, TCU, and Houston, or possibly all three schools...why? TCU and Houston would push Texas recruiting even further, and they're both in decent markets as well...New Mexico is a stretch, but they're an up and coming program, and a state school that would bridge the gap between the southern schools and Colorado...I also doubt Colorado would support inviting Colorado State or Air Force

New SWC
[I]Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Texas Tech
Baylor
New Mexico
TCU
Houston

The remaining 4 Big XII North schools would probably retain the name Big XII in hopes to still have ties to the BCS, and scramble to add teams...BYU and Utah could get invites along with Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, and possibly UNLV...Memphis and possibly Northern Illinois might be looked at as well

New Big XII
East
Missouri
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Memphis
Northern Illinois

West
BYU
Utah
Air Force
Colorado State
Wyoming
UNLV

Scenario 2-Big 10 invites Missouri
Similar to Scenario 1, but with Nebraska still in the conference, the southern schools might be a little more willing to try and hold the conference together

MWC schools might become possible options, although I don't think Colorado would want Colorado State or Air Force to get invited...BYU and Utah probably would only come as a pair, so that would leave Wyoming and New Mexico as possible invites...Wyoming has woeful attendance, but that might pick up if they were added...they'd be a quick fix to maintain a championship game, and add a western school for Colorado...New Mexico could work out as well and is a decent addition

Big XII
North
Nebraska
Wyoming
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

South
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.

Scenario 3-Big 10 invites Rutgers
Another loss by the Big East, and the rumored split between the football and basketball schools could happen...it would allow the football schools to grab any combination of Memphis, Central Florida, and East Carolina...the Big East could grab 2 schools and become an all-sports Eastern conference

Eastern Conference
Syracuse
Pitt
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
Memphis
East Carolina
Cincinnati
South Florida

Scenario 4-Arkansas leaves SEC
If for some bizarre reason Arkansas did leave the SEC and join the Big XII, I don't think it would take long for the SEC to go after Memphis or Louisville

West Virginia is a possiblity, but then you'd have to realign divisions

The SEC could also retaliate and invite Oklahoma or Texas A&M, but could get rejected

A long shot would be Houston, if the SEC started looking at the market strategy

SEC
East
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
South Carolina

West
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
Ole Miss
Mississippi St.
Louisville

[Yoda]

This is all hypothetical, of course, but if BYU and Utah leave the MWC -- and especially if TCU does as well -- then it would be the WAC picking the MWC's bones for three schools -- not the other way around.

Yoda out...

[GatorGrad]

EV - Interesting stuff. I like following conference movement. My dream is still that somehow we end up with six major 12-team conferences, each with two divisions and a CCG format feeding into an 8-team playoff (all six conference champs + two wildcards.) Those six conferences would need to probably break away and form their own league somehow. I know...it's a dream.

Anyways, back to reality...I'm just glad that we're in the SEC so we don't have to worry too much about this silliness. The only team I could see leaving is Arkansas for the Big 12, and I am sure we would be able to easily replace them with a solid program.

[buckeyejim]

Does anyone ever wonder what a school like Tulane would be like today if they had not left the SEC following the 1965 season? That was a very very poorly thought out decision. It sort of worked out for Georgia Tech as they finally found a home in the ACC even though it took almost 20 years. There are some who would like to see South Carolina and Georgia Tech swap back to their old homes in the ACC and SEC respectively. I'm sure Georgia Tech would do it but I doubt that South Carolina would leave the SEC for the ACC.

[GatorGrad]

I would love to see Clemson in the SEC. A roadtrip to Death Valley East would be fun. Their atmosphere is much more "SEC-like" for sure.

[buckeyejim]

There are 3 SEC type schools in the ACC. Those are Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech. Miami plays SEC style football but the support and facilities at Miami just are lacking.

[GatorGrad]

I agree...FSU had their chance to join in the early 90's, but Bobby Bowden and FSU didn't want to have to play Auburn and Alabama every year. So they ran and hid in the ACC which turned out to be a good move for them as they went on to win nine straight ACC Championships from 1992-2000.

[Blue Hen]

NCT,
There is no secret as to why GT left the SEC. Bobby Dodd, a straight shooter and man of integrity had little respect for Bear Bryant's sleazy ways and cheating. .....although GT sure found winning in the SEC much easier than winning in the ACC. GT was .616 vs SEC competition and stands .424 vs ACC competition ( as conf member )

[copycat]

I doubt GT would ever go back to the SEC. Hell we tried a few times, only to be shot down by UGA and the mississippi schools (and Alabama's AD)

GT left the SEC over scholarship issues. As we well know that the independent years weren't kind, mostly due to coaching inconsistency after Dodd left. I have faith in Gailey getting the program back to consistency, along with the new AD and everyone in place. We won't be fighting to MNCs year in and year out, but really who is (other that USC)?

[EvilVodka]

I agree...FSU had their chance to join in the early 90's, but Bobby Bowden and FSU didn't want to have to play Auburn and Alabama every year. So they ran and hid in the ACC which turned out to be a good move for them as they went on to win nine straight ACC Championships from 1992-2000.

Why play an SEC schedule when you can just beat their champ every year? :D

[GatorGrad]

Why play an SEC schedule when you can just beat their champ every year? :D

Good one.

Since joining the ACC, FSU has beaten the SEC Champ in 1993, 1994*, 1996**, and 2000.

Since joining the ACC, FSU has lost to the SEC Champ in 1995, 1998, 2002, and 2006.

* FSU tied Florida 31-31 in Tallahassee before beating them in the Sugar Bowl 23-17.

** FSU beat Florida 24-21 in Tallahassee before losing to them in the Sugar Bowl 52-20 (not sure if FSU can really claim bragging rights on that season!)

For the record, I do wish FSU would have joined the SEC back in 1992. Although my school probably would have less total SEC Titles, it would have been exciting to know that our in-state rivalry was sometimes for a berth in the SEC Title Game (assuming we were in the same division.)