The ZOOMBAG Playoff Review

[ZOOMBAG]

While the rankings have not changed at all this week, the conference races are clearing up a bit, except for the ACC. Add in one more wrinkle, Oregon St., and the last three weeks of the regular season are packed with intrigue.

As a review, the winners of the top eight conferences in Sagarin's conference power ratings get autobids. The highest ranking four teams in Massey's composite rating, not getting autobids, get at-large bids. The top four get first round byes.

The big news, with very substantial at-large issues is the race for #8 in the conference ratings. The MAC maintains an infinitesimally small lead over the WAC. This has playoff implications for teams like Georgia and Ohio St.

The races:

Big East -- Down to three teams, Cincy, Pitt and WVU. Cincy is in the driver's seat but a loss will put the backyard brawl front and center.

ACC -- still a mess. Nine of the twelve teams still have a mathematical shot and lots of games left to settle both divisions

Big 10 -- Penn St if they win next week. Otherwise Ohio St backs in if they beat Michigan and PSU looses.

Big 12 - We are awaiting the outcome of Texas Tech and OU next week. Could be a be three way tie. Missouri has clinched the North

SEC - Alabama - Florida

PAC 10 -- The fly in the ointment here is Oregon St. They win out, they get the PAC 10 autobid and should the MAC remain ahead of the WAC in the conference power ratings race, that would be FOUR autobids outside the top 12, meaning you have to be #8 or higher to get an at-large. That not only locks out Ohio St and Georgia, it would lock out Boise St with a perfect record!

MWC -- BYU win over AFA leaves three teams standing Utah, BYU and TCU. A BYU win over Utah and a TCU win over AFA next week makes this just like the Big 12 south, three teams with one loss, all to each other.

WAC -- Boise St

MAC -- Big game this week between Ball St and CMU for the West division. The West division winner should easily beat the east in the conference title game.


So at issue continue to be at-large selections. Oregon St could be a big buster for some big teams. Ohio St and Georgia need to root for the following,

1) Someone beat Oregon St

2) Hawaii to beat Cincy in the last game of the season in the early morning hours of Dec 7....Pearl Harbor day....

Fun times....

[Jim]

You mentioned:

PAC 10 -- The fly in the ointment here is Oregon St. They win out, they get the PAC 10 autobid and should the MAC remain ahead of the WAC in the conference power ratings race, that would be FOUR autobids outside the top 12, meaning you have to be #8 or higher to get an at-large. That not only locks out Ohio St and Georgia, it would lock out Boise St with a perfect record!

Unsure how to precipitate that but do you mean ... Ball State would be in? While the Buckeyes, Bulldogs and Broncos would be doing those Jan 1 Florida bowls (Outback and Capital One) and Hawaii? I see Texas and Texas Tech making the cut along with USC and Alabama/Florida loser (assuing both the Tide and Gators win out). If OU loses I see them dropping to #8 at the highest in the BCS.

Can you elaborate on your comments and specify who would make it in?

[JamesHowell]

He is talking about an imaginary playoff, not the BCS.

[Jim]

He is talking about an imaginary playoff, not the BCS.

Apparently I haven't had enough coffee yet.

[ZOOMBAG]

You mentioned:

PAC 10 -- The fly in the ointment here is Oregon St. They win out, they get the PAC 10 autobid and should the MAC remain ahead of the WAC in the conference power ratings race, that would be FOUR autobids outside the top 12, meaning you have to be #8 or higher to get an at-large. That not only locks out Ohio St and Georgia, it would lock out Boise St with a perfect record!

Unsure how to precipitate that but do you mean ... Ball State would be in? While the Buckeyes, Bulldogs and Broncos would be doing those Jan 1 Florida bowls (Outback and Capital One) and Hawaii? I see Texas and Texas Tech making the cut along with USC and Alabama/Florida loser (assuing both the Tide and Gators win out). If OU loses I see them dropping to #8 at the highest in the BCS.

Can you elaborate on your comments and specify who would make it in?

It's all based on Sagarin's conference power ratings and Massey's Composite team ratings. Oregon St is out side the top 12. For every autobid team outside the top 12 it raised the minimum ranking needed for an at-large bid. Right now the Big East, ACC, MAC and possibly the PAC 10 champions are all outside the top 12. Ohio St is #10 and Georgia is #11. As it stands Ohio St. is out almost for sure unless USC wins the PAC and the WAC overtakes the MAC as the #8 conference (Boise St is in the top 12) If that happens both Ohio St and Georgia make it as at-large. If Orgeon St loses and the WAc overtakes the MAC, which it would if Hawaii beats Cincy both UGA and OSU are in. If only one of those happens then OSU is out.

So it boils down to the Hawaii-Cincy game out in Honolulu the night of Dec 6 as to whether it is Ball St getting an autobid, forcing at-large to Boise and locking out Ohio St or Boise getting in via autobid with Ohio St going in as an at-large

Both Alabama and Florida are in, not matter what unless both lose next week in major upsets. Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are all three in. Now if Mizzou pulls an upset that throws a wrench into Ohio St and Georgia's plans as well!

What it means is the regular season under a playoff format like this has INFINITELY MORE meaning than it does now.