2007 SOS Overall

[JamesHowell]

Now that all schedules are complete, here are the overall schedules rated from toughest to easiest:

1 Washington
2 UCLA
3 Duke
4 Stanford
5 Oregon
6 Florida State
7 Michigan State
8 Notre Dame
9 California
10 Arizona
11 Washington State
12 Mississippi State
13 Southern California
14 Nebraska
15 Oregon State
16 Oklahoma State
17 Mississippi
18 Tennessee
19 Louisiana State
20 Illinois
21 Colorado
22 Georgia
23 Purdue
24 Kentucky
25 Boston College
26 North Carolina State
27 South Carolina
28 Texas A&M
29 Alabama
30 Maryland
31 Iowa State
32 Florida
33 Georgia Tech
34 Baylor
35 Arizona State
36 North Carolina
37 Texas
38 Vanderbilt
39 Virginia
40 Clemson
41 Miami (Florida)
42 Kansas State
43 Wake Forest
44 Virginia Tech
45 Michigan
46 South Florida
47 West Virginia
48 Cincinnati
49 Auburn
50 Nevada-Las Vegas
51 Syracuse
52 Louisville
53 Wisconsin
54 Oklahoma
55 Iowa
56 Utah
57 Texas Tech
58 San Diego State
59 Minnesota
60 Utah State
61 Missouri
62 Pittsburgh
63 Penn State
64 Army
65 Indiana
66 Florida International
67 Ohio State
68 Wyoming
69 Louisiana Tech
70 East Carolina
71 Idaho
72 Marshall
73 Central Florida
74 Colorado State
75 Eastern Michigan
76 Arkansas
77 Air Force
78 Connecticut
79 Southern Methodist
80 Texas Christian
81 Northwestern
82 Rice
83 Brigham Young
84 Rutgers
85 Florida Atlantic
86 Fresno State
87 Kansas
88 Alabama-Birmingham
89 San Jose State
90 New Mexico
91 Troy
92 New Mexico State
93 Tulsa
94 Western Michigan
95 Houston
96 Arkansas State
97 Texas-El Paso
98 Buffalo
99 Southern Mississippi
100 Kent
101 Louisiana-Monroe
102 Central Michigan
103 Temple
104 Middle Tennessee State
105 Tulane
106 Nevada
107 Ball State
108 North Texas
109 Northern Illinois
110 Navy
111 Miami (Ohio)
112 Akron
113 Boise State
114 Bowling Green State
115 Toledo
116 Louisiana-Lafayette
117 Memphis
118 Hawaii
119 Ohio
120 Western Kentucky

[Trojangles]

Always interesting, James, but I forget what your methodology screens include. Could you add a brief description to both posts, including what the numbers provided on the OOC list represent? Thanks.

[HellYeahHokie]

I know you have some methodology, and that preseason SOS polls are virtually meaningless because you never know what teams are going to be in the future.

However, I find it hard to believe that any methodology would rank UVa's SOS higher than Virginia Tech's.

UVA's toughest games (IMO) are VT, Miami, Maryland, and Pittsburgh.

VT next year plays LSU, Boston College, Miami, Clemson, and FSU.

Is it just because VT has Bill & Mary on the schedule that is skews it that far down? Because those are 5 legitimately tough games on the Hokie schedule, and I don't think think those two schedules are comparable at all.


(unless of course, the fact that UVA has to play VT skews the results up so much because VT will win the MNC next year. :D )

[JamesHowell]

> preseason SOS polls are virtually meaningless because you never know what teams are going to be in the future.

That is not at all true. Although there are always a handful of teams that underperform and a handful of teams that outperform relative to preseason expectations, the preseason polls do a generally good job of predicting how the teams will do.

[Blue Hen]

those 5 games represent 42% of VT's schedule. I think Howell's SOS system is based on 100% of a team's schedule as are all the computer systems.

[INSIDE99]

They dropped Jacksonville State in favor of Gardner-Webb. LOL.

[JamesHowell]

Ugh. Nevada took Nicholls State, who dropped Memphis. Memphis picked up Jacksonville State, who (I guess) dropped Mississippi State who picked up Gardner-Webb.

No, I didn't get that one, but it won't change the calculations.

[HellYeahHokie]

those 5 games represent 42% of VT's schedule. I think Howell's SOS system is based on 100% of a team's schedule as are all the computer systems.

But I'm just comparing it to Virginia's schedule. And the only thing I can figure is that the presence of Bill&Mary so severely skews the statistics, that UVa's schedule would look more difficult than VT's. But UVA plays Middle Tennessee State.

Line up VT's entire schedule next to UVa's entire schedule next year, and you tell me which one looks more difficult.

[CJHawkeyes]

Ugh. Nevada took Nicholls State, who dropped Memphis. Memphis picked up Jacksonville State, who (I guess) dropped Mississippi State who picked up Gardner-Webb.

No, I didn't get that one, but it won't change the calculations.

Chalk up three more worthless games in the meaningful regular season.

[Blue Hen]

Just for fun, HYH, I looked at UVA's & VT's schedule , week by week , and game by game. Although rating SOS in April is totally ridiculous, here's how it looked to me :

Game #................................................. .........most difficult
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
1) UVA @ WYO, VT vs ECU..............................UVA
2) UVA vs DUKE, VT vs LSU.............................VT
3) UVA @ UNC, VT vs OHIO.............................UVA
4) UVA vs GT, VT vs W&M...............................UVA
5) UVA vs PITT, VT vs UNC..............................UVA
6) UVA @ MTSU, VT @ CLEM............................VT
7) UVA vs UCONN, VT @ DUKE..........................UVA
8) UVA @ MD, VT vs BC...................................tie
9) UVA @ NCst, VT @ GT.................................tie
10) UVA vs WF, VT vs FSU...............................VT
11) UVA @ MIA, VT vs MIA...............................UVA
12) UVA vs VT, VT @ UVA................................tie

So I get 6-3-3 in favor of UVA in game by game degree of difficulty, but I'm sure you would see some of these games differently.

Also, UVA plays 6 road games, VT plays 5. UVA plays 12 BS teams, VT plays 11.

Like I said.........."just for fun", But Howell's rating of UVA's slightly higher SOS seems plausable, to me.












""""""""""
1) UVA @ Wyom, ECU @ VT......................

[GatorGrad]

Just for fun, HYH, I looked at UVA's & VT's schedule , week by week , and game by game. Although rating SOS in April is totally ridiculous, here's how it looked to me :

Game #................................................. .........most difficult
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
1) UVA @ WYO, VT vs ECU..............................UVA
2) UVA vs DUKE, VT vs LSU.............................VT
3) UVA @ UNC, VT vs OHIO.............................UVA
4) UVA vs GT, VT vs W&M...............................UVA
5) UVA vs PITT, VT vs UNC..............................UVA
6) UVA @ MTSU, VT @ CLEM............................VT
7) UVA vs UCONN, VT @ DUKE..........................UVA
8) UVA @ MD, VT vs BC...................................tie
9) UVA @ NCst, VT @ GT.................................tie
10) UVA vs WF, VT vs FSU...............................VT
11) UVA @ MIA, VT vs MIA...............................UVA
12) UVA vs VT, VT @ UVA................................tie

So I get 6-3-1 in favor of UVA in game by game degree of difficulty, but I'm sure you would see some of these games differently.

Also, UVA plays 6 road games, VT plays 5. UVA plays 12 BS teams, VT plays 11.

Like I said.........."just for fun"......................

For this analysis, shouldn't you rank opponents from worst to best or vice versa to get a more clear comparison? Listing the games by date is flawed because then it partly becomes luck on where games happen to be on the schedule. You should compare toughest game to toughest game, second toughest game vs second toughest game, etc. Just my two cents.

[Blue Hen]

sure, good point......many ways to do it, but trying to determine relative SOS before a single FB play is run...........it's so silly anyway. How do you know "toughest games" ?

[GatorGrad]

sure, good point......many ways to do it, but trying to determine relative SOS before a single FB play is run...........it's so silly anyway. How do you know "toughest games" ?

Well of course there's no way to tell 100% how they will shake out in the season, but I think most educated fans can make pretty good guesses. For example, I can tell you that a game vs LSU will be tougher than a game vs Ohio. Or a game vs FSU will be tougher than a game vs Duke. Rank the schedules from top to bottom and see what you get!

[Blue Hen]

One flaw here is that pre-season polls influence regular season and final polls to a large extent. No good.

[JamesHowell]

> One flaw here is that pre-season polls influence regular season and final polls to a large extent. No good.

They don't influence computer ratings at all and, for the most part, the computers and the polls agree at season end, at least with regard to the general position of a team (i.e., within a few spots).

[Blue Hen]

Good point about the computers..I think.

[FLORIDA HERD FAN]

I agree that the preseason and early season polls do not affect computer ratings, but Blue Hen is on target that they clearly do have a profound affect on final polls.

Just imagine where 2006 Boise State, 2004 Utah, 1999 Marshall and 1998 Tulane would have ended up in the final polls had each been ranked in the top-10 in the preseason polls.

[JamesHowell]

> Just imagine where 2006 Boise State, 2004 Utah, 1999 Marshall and 1998 Tulane would have ended up in the final polls had each been ranked in the top-10 in the preseason polls.

Just about where the ended up rated. The preseason polls "may" make a difference as to whether a team is rated #5 or #6, but they don't influence whether the team is a 5/6 or a 13/14, for example.

[Don]

I agree that the preseason and early season polls do not affect computer ratings, but Blue Hen is on target that they clearly do have a profound affect on final polls.

Just imagine where 2006 Boise State, 2004 Utah, 1999 Marshall and 1998 Tulane would have ended up in the final polls had each been ranked in the top-10 in the preseason polls.

James just said "They don't influence computer ratings at all and, for the most part, the computers and the polls agree at season end, at least with regard to the general position of a team (i.e., within a few spots)."

The FINAL polls agree with the computers!

Here are your examples.

2006 BSU....AP #5....Howell Computer...#5......Massey composite...#6
2004 Utah....AP #4....Howell Computer...#4......Massey composite...#4
1999 Marshall....AP #8....Howell Computer...#10......Massey composite...#11
1998 Tulane....AP #11....Howell Computer...#7......Massey composite...#13

The AP poll has been kinder to these teams than the computers!!! So much for your theory of initial polls biasing the final polls against the "unwashed" teams.

[JamesHowell]

> So much for your theory of initial polls biasing th final polls.

I was actually making an argument against preseason polls biasing final polls. I don't think they do.

[HellYeahHokie]

If you rank teams from hardest to easiest and try to estimate which matchup is tougher (subjective and based on last year's results)

UVA schedule.....VT schedule__edge?

VT..................@LSU_____edge VT (home game vs away)
@UM............... UM_______edge UVA (home vs away)
Pitt................ FSU_______edge VT
@Md............... BC________even (I think this is edge VT, but I'm trying to be objective as possible)
@NCSU............@Clem_____edge VT
WF..................UVa_______edge Uva (assuming WFU wasn't a fluke last year)
GT..................@GT_______edge VT
@ UNC.............UNC_______edge Uva
@WYO.............Ohio_______edge VT
UCONN.............ECU_______edge VT
Duke...............Duke_______wash (cupcake)
MTSU..............W&M_______wash (cupcake)

Obviously these are subjective, and we don't really know how some of these teams will pan out. However, instead of a week-by-week comparison, which is meaningless, a ranking based on projected difficulty, I see VT has 6-3 advantage in terms of tougher opponents.

I find it very hard to believe that UVa's schedule next year could ever be considered more difficult than VTs.

[JamesHowell]

Playing a MAC team at home is tougher than playing a MWC team on the road (a lon ways from home at that)????

[HellYeahHokie]

Playing a MAC team at home is tougher than playing a MWC team on the road (a lon ways from home at that)????

Playing That Mac team at home is still a tougher opponent than that MWC team on the road. Ohio had a successful year last year. I don't think Wyoming beat a team with a winning record. Ohio has Frank Solich coaching. Wyoming does not.

I absolutely think Ohio at home is a tougher opponent than Wyoming on the road.

Now, do I think Uva has a better probability of losing to Wyoming on the road than VT losing to Ohio at home? Absolutely I do. But we're not talking about the probability of UVa losing compared to VT losing. We know from experience that UVa will lose more often than VT. But that doesn't mean they have a tougher schedule. It only means that VT is a far better team than Uva.

Here's another hypothetical way to look at it. Predict how many games VT will win with their own schedule. Then predict how many games they will win with UVA's schedule. I don't think its unreasonable to think that VT could go undefeated with UVa's schedule. Name a team on UVa's schedule in which the Hokies would be considered underdogs.

I couldn't possibly see VT running the table this year, with their schedule.

I understand this is subjective reasoning, and computer models don't use subjectivity (except in the weights assigned to parameters by the coder). But there is no way I'd ever consider UVA's schedule harder than VT's next year...and that's from top to bottom.

[Blue Hen]

HYH,You perceive hosting Ohio U as more difficult than traveling 2,000 miles to play Wyoming ????? Nah, I don't think you really believe that

[HellYeahHokie]

HYH,You perceive hosting Ohio U as more difficult than traveling 2,000 miles to play Wyoming ????? Nah, I don't think you really believe that


See my response to James.

[Blue Hen]

Couldn't , respectfully, disagree more, James. If Utah and Auburn got the free # 1 & 2 pre season poll ranking and USC and Oklahoma started very deep in the polls or even unranked, Utah and Auburn get the automatic appointment to the BCS pretend NC game.Guaranteed. In cases of multiple undefeateds, pre season polls always`decide MNCs.

[Blue Hen]

Are you perceiving the MAC to be stronger than the MWC ??

[Blue Hen]

Every single team in the BCS era that started either #1 or #2 in the pre season opinion polls and posted an undefeated season, played in the BCS champ game. ( 8 out of 8 ) ...100% dead bolt lock. In this same era, many other teams posted undefeated seasons but did not get voted to the BCS champ game. FACTOID : in seasons featuring multiple undefeated teams, the pre season opinion polls determine the BCS finalists. It's never failed to happen.

[GatorGrad]

I think it's pretty clear to most fans that VT's schedule would be harder than UVA's unless there are some serious under/over achievers on either side. I know you can't prove it until the end of the season though.

[HellYeahHokie]

Are you perceiving the MAC to be stronger than the MWC ??

I'm just looking at the records of both teams from last year. Look who they beat. Utah in Laramie was the only team that Wyoming beat with a winning record. Most of the other teams the Cowboys beat were woefully bad teams. Ohio also beat some bad teams, but they also beat 3 or 4 teams with winning records and had a 9-4 regular season and went bowling. Wyoming finished 6-6 and sat home.

So my point is, that I believe Ohio to be a better team than Wyoming. I believe they beat better teams.

But if that is the only issue out of my entire list, then I'll call it a push. I think VT would beat Wyoming on the road just as bad as they would beat Ohio at home. Call it even, and I still think my matchups show a 5-3 advantage for VT.

Do you think if VT played UVA's schedule, they would have a better or worse record at the end of the year, than if they played their current schedule? (subjectively and hypothetically speaking, of course)

[HellYeahHokie]

No, we can't know until the end of the season, but whatever standard is used to create preseason SOS lists is also based on historical results, not future results. This is true for computers or humans.

[Blue Hen]

Is that being consistent ?.......judging relative strength based on last year's records ? If so than WF should be on top of your power ranking SOS opponent lists.

There are no reasonable SOS ratings systems in April.,,but its been a fun discussion.

Sooooo..are you going to the LSU game ?

[Blue Hen]

clear as mud

[HellYeahHokie]

It would be fine with me to move up WF, either to above or behind Miami. It still wouldn't change the overall analysis.

I know you don't believe in polls, but you do believe in betting lines. I don't follow them, but what do you think the betting lines would be if VT played UVA's schedule, and compare that to what you might predict the betting lines would be with VT's current schedule.


And we might not know much in April, but that doesn't mean they don't have odds on who might win the MNC next year. I'm not a betting man, but I would bet plenty if the oddsmakers estimated the lines of both of those schedules, if VT played UVA's schedule instead their own, the sum total of all the lines would be far greater for UVA's schedule. I've no doubt of that.

LSU? It kills me, but I don't think I can go. Too poor and too busy. Most of my friends are going though. They already have their hotels. I'll be sad to miss it.

[Blue Hen]

Ahhhhhh....I don't know about that. First off there are no lines in 1A vs 1AA games and only Tech is playing 1AA competition. That, combined with the fact that Tech plays less road games still makes me lean toward Howell's pre season SOS relative ranking of the two schedules. I think VT would have a better chance at a great season vs its own schedule than vs UVa's...........but that could all change . It'll be fun to monitor the SOS of the two teams in the computer systems as the season progresses.

[Don]

Every single team in the BCS era that started either #1 or #2 in the pre season opinion polls and posted an undefeated season, played in the BCS champ game. ( 8 out of 8 ) ...100% dead bolt lock. In this same era, many other teams posted undefeated seasons but did not get voted to the BCS champ game. FACTOID : in seasons featuring multiple undefeated teams, the pre season opinion polls determine the BCS finalists. It's never failed to happen.

absolutely NOTHING. Those same teams were also pick by the computers which DIDN'T have any preseason bias!!!!

[Blue Hen]

Not all the time. The computers ( only 33% of the formula) have differed occasionally....but MNC finalists have, indeed, been decided in August before a single fb was ever snapped. Dumbest championship system in world team sports history !