Trojangles
04-13-2007, 11:11 AM
Southern Cal generally plays a quality OOC schedule every year, and some Trojan fans are wondering what impact playing a team like the Vandals will have on USC's BCS strength of schedule rating in 2007.
If my math and thoughts are correct, the answer is . . . not much, relatively speaking, as follows:
First, here’s (1) College Football News 2007 Pre-Season Top Ten List (as good as any at this point), (2) an average OOC score derived from their rankings, and (3) each team's OOC schedule:
#1 USC = 54.33 (Idaho #113, Nebraska #15, Notre Dame #35).
#2 LSU = 84.00 ( Louisiana Tech #111, Middle Tennessee #110, Tulane #102, Virginia Tech #13).
#3 Texas = 78.25 (Arkansas State #106, Rice #93, TCU #23, UCF #91).
#4 Florida = 77.00 (Florida-Atlantic #109, Florida State #17, Troy #105, Western Kentucky N/R).
#5 Wisconsin = 78.67 (Northern Illinois #90, The Citadel N/R, UNLV #101, Washington State #45).
#6 Ohio State = 79.00 (Akron #95, Kent State #88, Washington #54, Youngstown State N/R).
#7 Oklahoma = 83.00 (Miami #29, North Texas #114, Tulsa #72, Utah State #117).
#8 Arkansas = 112.67 (Florida International #119, North Texas #114, Troy #105, UT Chattanooga N/R).
#9 UCLA = 44.67 (BYU #52, Notre Dame #35, Utah #47).
#10 Michigan = 64.33 (Appalachian State N/R, Eastern Michigan #115, Notre Dame #35, Oregon #43).
The lower the average score, the more difficult the OOC schedule, and only UCLA’s 44.67 figure is lower than USC’s 54.33. Further, although games with lower division foes are listed, rankings were not included---If they had been, it is probable that the averages of teams playing lower division schools would be even higher.
Second, Pac-10 schools play only three OOC games and nine conference games in 2007, while most other schools play four OOC games. Ranking wise, this is an important difference, as a majority of Pac-10 schools are ranked well above the average OOC foes many schools will be playing:
#1 USC
#9 UCLA
#18 California
#25 Oregon State
#39 Arizona State
#43 Oregon
#45 Washington State
#48 Arizona
#54 Washington
#75 Stanford
For example, LSU's average rating of 84 (for the OOC teams they will play) is above even Stanford's rank of 75.
Third, Idaho's 2007 season may surprise some folks. The Vandals went 4-8 in 2006, including a 45-7 thumping of Nevada and had mighty Boise State in trouble, before falling 26-42. And, now, they've got former WSU DC Robb Akey at the helm, a guy that has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to get more from less than most coaches around.
Summary - Playing a team like the Vandals may be less challenging than the typical USC foe, but there's a lot of OOC schedules around that are much worse. So, I'm thinking, if the Trojans are to have a good year, we should (a) beat Idaho, (b) take no crapola about playing the Vandals, and (c) move on.
Footnote: The OOC averages for teams that finished high in the 2006 BCS final ratings, but are not in CFN's 2007 Top Ten are as follows:
Boise State = 59.67 (Southern Mississippi #55, Washington #54, Webber State N/R, Wyoming #70).
Louisville = 65.00 (Kentucky #38, Middle Tennessee #110, Murray State N/R, Utah #47).
Auburn = 57.33 (Kansas State #42, New Mexico State #104, South Florida #26, Tennessee Tech. N/R).
West Virginia = 72.25 (East Carolina #83, Marshall #67, Mississippi State #59, Western Michigan #80).
If my math and thoughts are correct, the answer is . . . not much, relatively speaking, as follows:
First, here’s (1) College Football News 2007 Pre-Season Top Ten List (as good as any at this point), (2) an average OOC score derived from their rankings, and (3) each team's OOC schedule:
#1 USC = 54.33 (Idaho #113, Nebraska #15, Notre Dame #35).
#2 LSU = 84.00 ( Louisiana Tech #111, Middle Tennessee #110, Tulane #102, Virginia Tech #13).
#3 Texas = 78.25 (Arkansas State #106, Rice #93, TCU #23, UCF #91).
#4 Florida = 77.00 (Florida-Atlantic #109, Florida State #17, Troy #105, Western Kentucky N/R).
#5 Wisconsin = 78.67 (Northern Illinois #90, The Citadel N/R, UNLV #101, Washington State #45).
#6 Ohio State = 79.00 (Akron #95, Kent State #88, Washington #54, Youngstown State N/R).
#7 Oklahoma = 83.00 (Miami #29, North Texas #114, Tulsa #72, Utah State #117).
#8 Arkansas = 112.67 (Florida International #119, North Texas #114, Troy #105, UT Chattanooga N/R).
#9 UCLA = 44.67 (BYU #52, Notre Dame #35, Utah #47).
#10 Michigan = 64.33 (Appalachian State N/R, Eastern Michigan #115, Notre Dame #35, Oregon #43).
The lower the average score, the more difficult the OOC schedule, and only UCLA’s 44.67 figure is lower than USC’s 54.33. Further, although games with lower division foes are listed, rankings were not included---If they had been, it is probable that the averages of teams playing lower division schools would be even higher.
Second, Pac-10 schools play only three OOC games and nine conference games in 2007, while most other schools play four OOC games. Ranking wise, this is an important difference, as a majority of Pac-10 schools are ranked well above the average OOC foes many schools will be playing:
#1 USC
#9 UCLA
#18 California
#25 Oregon State
#39 Arizona State
#43 Oregon
#45 Washington State
#48 Arizona
#54 Washington
#75 Stanford
For example, LSU's average rating of 84 (for the OOC teams they will play) is above even Stanford's rank of 75.
Third, Idaho's 2007 season may surprise some folks. The Vandals went 4-8 in 2006, including a 45-7 thumping of Nevada and had mighty Boise State in trouble, before falling 26-42. And, now, they've got former WSU DC Robb Akey at the helm, a guy that has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to get more from less than most coaches around.
Summary - Playing a team like the Vandals may be less challenging than the typical USC foe, but there's a lot of OOC schedules around that are much worse. So, I'm thinking, if the Trojans are to have a good year, we should (a) beat Idaho, (b) take no crapola about playing the Vandals, and (c) move on.
Footnote: The OOC averages for teams that finished high in the 2006 BCS final ratings, but are not in CFN's 2007 Top Ten are as follows:
Boise State = 59.67 (Southern Mississippi #55, Washington #54, Webber State N/R, Wyoming #70).
Louisville = 65.00 (Kentucky #38, Middle Tennessee #110, Murray State N/R, Utah #47).
Auburn = 57.33 (Kansas State #42, New Mexico State #104, South Florida #26, Tennessee Tech. N/R).
West Virginia = 72.25 (East Carolina #83, Marshall #67, Mississippi State #59, Western Michigan #80).