A Little Perspective on the National Title Game

[EvilVodka]

Everyone is trying to figure out why and how Ohio State could lose again...almost the entire Gameday crew picked the Buckeyes, and all the talking heads were saying that Ohio State would have more motivation because of last year's loss...

Alot of people claim the superiority of the SEC, which isn't totally unfounded...the SEC is the best conference right now, and the Big 10 has been down lately

But did LSU have superior athletes? eh...not really....you could say they were deeper, but Wells flat out put some moves on LSU's D, and Robiskie flat out dropped a sure TD in the endzone

Did LSU have superior coaching?
Tressel IMO is one of the best, so I don't really buy that

Here's something I think has been overlooked...here are some key seniors on LSU's team:
Matt Flynn
Jacob Hester
Early Doucet
Glenn Dorsey
Ali Highsmith
Chevis Jackson
Jonathan Zenon

The first time I saw Matt Flynn and Jacob Hester was when they beat Miami 40-3 in the Peach Bowl in '05....this team is full of seasoned veterans who have been playing big games not just this year but a couple of years

Here's Ohio State's lineup:
Todd Boeckman Jr.
Chris Wells So.
Brian Robiskie Jr.
Vernon Gholston Jr.
Laurinaitis Jr.
Marcus Freeman Jr.
Malcolm Jenkins Jr.
Jamario O'Neal Jr.

Most of the back-ups were sophomores...the majority of Buckeye players are Junior and sophmore

Lindy's Preseason mag had Ohio State ranked 3rd in the Big 10, and the Sporting News had them ranked 4th

My point is, the senior players for LSU have been playing tougher games for a longer duration...Ohio State just isn't there yet...no one expected them to even be in this game, especially with the losses of Smith, Ginn, and Gonzalez

If Ohio State keeps most of their team, they should be pretty good next year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them back in the championship game

Ohio State '08 will have players that have played against Florida '06 and LSU '07...next year Ohio State will be the "seasoned" team

[Bucs90]

Good point. The Gameday crew was ripping OSU's skill position players, saying how much better LSU was athletically, especially in the skill areas.

Well, I dont know. I will say LSU's defensive backs were locked up man to man with OSU's WR's and shut down OSU's vertical passing game. That was huge.

But other than that, I think the experience level had a lot more to do with that win. You're right, LSU is a seasoned team. Much like Auburn 2004 was. Too bad we never got to see what Auburn could've done to the Trojans that year.

[Blue Hen]

Nice points, EVIL

[EvilVodka]

Good point. The Gameday crew was ripping OSU's skill position players, saying how much better LSU was athletically, especially in the skill areas.


Ohio State had great skill players...they just left early, namely Ginn and Gonzalez

Maybe if Robiskie has a few more big games under his belt, he catches the TD pass? Maybe if Boeckman gets more experienced, he doesn't panic when protection breaks down?

Matt Flynn isn't exactly Joe Montana, but he did a great job of staying calm, leading and managing the team, and making as few mistakes as possible

Both Flynn and Hester were playing in the Peach Bowl against Miami 2 years ago...who was playing for Ohio State 2 years ago when they were beating ND's ass in the Fiesta Bowl? Smith? Ginn? Bobby Carpenter? A.J. Hawk? mostly departed players

Here's an interesting article of Ohio State's win over Notre Dame, and Ohio State is praised as having too much speed for ND:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2278027

Now here's a couple articles on LSU, one of them on how Flynn will handle the vaunted Miami defense, and the other a youtube video of the game
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10643027#storyContinued
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewG7j7JFNc0

[Bucs90]

LOTS of teams had too much speed for Notre Dame!!!!

[Tyler Durden]

But did LSU have superior athletes? eh...not really....you could say they were deeper, but Wells flat out put some moves on LSU's D, and Robiskie flat out dropped a sure TD in the endzone

People need to watch it again, Chevis Jackson got his hand in there and knocked it out.

[Bucs90]

Also, people are dismissing LSU's mistakes that could've made the game even worse than the FLorida fiasco.

Deep into OSU territory, Flynn foolishly threw an intentional grounding that made a 2-8 into a 2nd a 23. A few more steps and he's out of the pocket. Bad decision. Cost them a TD.

The interception- Flynn threw the ball where a "hitch" would've been ran. The WR ran a "hook". Same route, except the break is right/left. OSU picked it, ran it into the LSU 10. Scored TD.

On the Wells TD run, the LSU LB took on a block.....with the wrong shoulder. Simple, fundamental mistake. If he takes that block on with the other shoulder, his body is on the other side of the blocker, that holes is filled, Wells is stopped for a gain of 4 or 5, rather than a 65 yard TD run.

So, the mistake angle goes both ways. LSU was a few non-mistakes away from this being a 50 something point win.

[ZOOMBAG]

First off there was no national title game last night, just another pointless exhibition for a little crystal football trophy.

That being said, it is nothing more than Bo Pellini's LSU defense....and LSU's offensive line.

[ZOOMBAG]

Ohio St receivers were open by NFL standards much of the night in the man coverage. But LSU's pressure and dominance on the line kept Ohio St completely out of their game. On the other side, no one ever touched an LSU running back before he was 3 yards past the line most of the night.

Dominance in the trenches. LSU had it on both sides of the ball.

[Bucs90]

Zoom, you're right, the pressure hurt OSU. But, I did notice the pressure LSU was getting on the QB wasn't the result of simply beating the OSU OL, like FSU did in 1995 when they nearly decapitated OSU's QB. Rather, IMO, it seemed the tight coverage caused the OSU QB to hesitate, and he held the ball too long. Most of the sacks he took would not have been sacks by NFL standards, as the "open" route may have been thrown.

But, this isn't the NFL, it's college. And by college standards, those WR's were locked down!

[GatorGrad]

First off there was no national title game last night, just another pointless exhibition for a little crystal football trophy.

That being said, it is nothing more than Bo Pellini's LSU defense....and LSU's offensive line.

Zoom,

Weren't you the same guy that was ripping that very same Bo Pellini / LSU Defense after they gave up 50 points to Arkansas? Quite a character, you are.

[ZOOMBAG]

Yea, Pellini can't defend mobile QB's. Never has been able to. But against everything else, he is the best there is at this level.

And yes, I must remind all the misguided, brainwashed college fans that think LSU won something more than a pointless exhibition game....they lost AT HOME to a team the second place Big 12 team beat by THRITY-ONE at a neutral site! That ALONE ranks a Missouri team, with an IDENTICAL record and (for the pack of fools who still think SOS actually matters) a comparable SOS, AHEAD of them because of performance against a COMMON OPPONENT.

If that doesn't grock with anyone, then try and acquiring a brain with a functioning capacity beyond that of a walnut.

[Bucs90]

Ah, so, that means West Virginia should be ranked over Missouri, right? Since they pounded OU, and OU beat Missouri. Twice. My brain told me that.

[ZOOMBAG]

Nothing wrong with that, you could logically put both WVU and Mizzou ahead of LSU.

Bottom line, college football MUST take the SUBJECTIVITY out of the rating process if they are only going have 2, 4, or 8 teams playing in a title sequence of games. Eliminate all polls and all human selection committees. Develop a scientific rating formula where the weighting factors themselves are derived through statistical analysis, crunch the numbers in a computer, and live with the result. If fans don't like the results they can pound sand.

[Bucs90]

Zoom, that sounds great in theory. But I think the large number of teams in college football simply doesn't allow for that. What are those factors? Which ones get the most weight? Even with an 8 team playoff, there is gonna be subjectivity in it. College basketball has it. The NFL lets about 40% of it's teams in the playoff. If college football did that, we'd have 50 team playoffs.

What if the NCAA started with this: Every BCS conference MUST have 12 teams. Each conference has 2 divisions. Each division winner is an auto-bid for the playoff. The playoffs begin with the conference championship games. After that, the BCS formula selects the top 2 teams for home field advantage and a 1st round bye, making the regular season enormously important. Matter of fact, think I'll throw a thread out about this format.

[Lincoln Tower]

First, re Durden - Robo always had good ball skills. Even with a little hand in there he usually catches that ball. Although maybe it was the DB. If it was that shows how close it is between a championship team (which LSU definitely is) and a "laughing stock" (which some people think apparently tOSU is).

But EV hit it on the head, IMO. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for tOSU. In a normal year, they just go to the Rose Bowl and Arizona State. LSU, when healthy, manhandled Va Tech by alot. Had they played tOSU on that game, they likely would've won by a similar amount. The fact it was a relatively competitive game is somewhat of a moral victory.

If Oklahoma hadn't choked against Colorado, or USC to Stanford or WVU to Pitt, then this game wouldn't have happened.

[Lincoln Tower]

BTW - The 31 point win by Missouri didn't really count. It was only an exhibition game.....

[aufan59]

Yea, Pellini can't defend mobile QB's. Never has been able to. But against everything else, he is the best there is at this level.

And yes, I must remind all the misguided, brainwashed college fans that think LSU won something more than a pointless exhibition game....they lost AT HOME to a team the second place Big 12 team beat by THRITY-ONE at a neutral site! That ALONE ranks a Missouri team, with an IDENTICAL record and (for the pack of fools who still think SOS actually matters) a comparable SOS, AHEAD of them because of performance against a COMMON OPPONENT.

If that doesn't grock with anyone, then try and acquiring a brain with a functioning capacity beyond that of a walnut.

You could prove that some division 3 schools are better than USC was in 2003 with your A>B>C thus A>C logic.

[Bucs90]

Hmm. LT, I see what you are saying, but the question is this: WAS 2007 in fact a down rebuilding year for Ohio State, and the Big Ten is just that bad. OR, was Ohio State actually a lot better than even they thought, and they weren't in a rebuilding year at all?

[Lincoln Tower]

Some of both. Michigan and Wisky won 22 combined games last year and both returned alot. They both underachieved, bigtime. Having the top 2 teams underachieve will make a conference bad.

Experience wise, it was a rebuilding year. The top 2 passers (with the rest having about 25 career passes coming into this year), leading rusher and 3 of the top 4 WRs left from a year ago, some a part of 16 5th year seniors. They started 2 seniors, one at RT and another at OLB. The three FBs who played were seniors, but it's a position not used often. 2 of the FBs were former walk ons and one of those was a converted center.

tOSU's rebuilding year is probably better than most schools rebuilding years. Definitely better than any BTs school's "rebuilding" year currently. After the 03 season, they set a 7 round record for most players from 1 school taken in a single draft. The following year started out bad, with a loss at Northwestern, and ended up at 8-4. A lot of fans thought that was in store. When they got to 7-0,8-0 and such, we thought maybe they rebuild really quickly. Some of it was definitely due to a bad BT.

I think tOSU would beat South Carolina and Alabama and Miss State and Kentucky and the like, probably ahndily in most cases. But LSU would beat Purdue and Wisconsin and Indiana and Wisconsin by WAY more. The overall depth of the SEC right now definitely prepares it's teams better for postseason play. No doubt about. Hopefully Zoook, Dantonio, Rodrigues, Bielema and Shciano (PSU, anyone?) restore those programs and make the BT tougher.

Untill then though, I'll gladly take these 11 win seasons....

[Bucs90]

Well, first, the South Carolina native. Being a native and resident of South Carolina, I'm required by South Carolina Code of Laws statute 56-34-2001 to remind any Ohio State fan who mentions the words "South" or "Carolina" of the back to back Outback Bowl wins South Carolina has in the last 7 years vs Ohio State.

Ok, now that I'm legally in the clear, you make some good points. I really think OSU is gonna have a great chance to get back next year. A win over USC would be HUGE!!!! And, Michigan loses a lot, as does Illinois. OSU should win the Big Ten easily, more so on talent than lack of opponent strenght this time around. And along with a win @ USC, they could be in the Orange Bowl playing against Georgia next season. Or Florida again. Wouldn't that be some sh**? Back to back games in the MNC game, vs SEC teams, in the SEC teams home state? I saw a lot of red in the crowd, so I don't buy any HFA, but it would be ironic wouldn't it???

I can only imagine, OSU loses 3 NC games in a row, to Florida, LSU, Georgia. Buckeye fans would burn down SEC home office building on way back to Ohio!

[ZOOMBAG]

Yes it does. You can have an objective rating for a 1000 or 10,000 team league. The number of entities is IRRELEVANT to an objective rating system other than you need a fine grain enough measurment to differentiate to avoid too many ties.

[ZOOMBAG]

The only title LSU won was the SEC. OU won the Big 12, and so on. Nothing else mattered.

[GatorGrad]

Zoom - Why do you use bowl game results to prove points when you say in other posts that bowl games are meaningless exhibition games? The Mizzou-Arkansas score and the Kansas-VaTech score should mean nothing to you. If you're going to have a point of view, at least stay consistent. Can't have it both ways. And of course an objective system would be better. CJ's formula is great. But it's not reality. And even if it was, who finished #1 in his formula? I don't think it was Kansas.

["14-O" U.]

This is a pretty good thread - wish I had more time to read them all. Missed most of yesterday attending to middle son (freshman in high school) after he decided to pinch his hand between 415 pounds of steel and a squat rack. Of course the weights were dropped to make it even more fun. Result was a generally smashed hand (luckily no broken bones), lots of blood, and 3 split fingers (7 stitches to sew up the pinky). Hopefully no ligament damage. Now I'm back to catch up on the work that I was behind on in the first place.

Still shaking my head with regard to Zoombag's 180 on MNC games. Long ago when Nebraska was winning them he argued that they were National Championships because they said so on the trophies. At least he has it right now, though I doubt for the right reasons. Maybe Pellini will bring Nebraska back and we can watch Zoombag do another 180 how Nebraskas bowl games are no longer exhibitions and should they win the BCS championship he can rationalize somehow that it really is a true Div IA National Championship that year.

[Bucs90]

I sense some SEC Haterade in the cooler.

[Lincoln Tower]

I think 1 thing is for sure. tOSU must be undefeated to play in it next year. A 2 loss SEC team would jump a 1 loss tOSU next year.

Good news is that USC will once again be the best team ever next year. So a win over the best team ever would restore the public image of a football program.

[ZOOMBAG]

They are as meaningless within the context of the discussion towards determining a national champion, because they don't. And that is context of any bowl discussion.

If you are trying to power rate conferences the have the same meaning as any other game, no less, no more.

I am 100% consistent. If you want to talk who I think had the best season, that was Kansas, BY FAR AND WIDE. If you want to talk national champion, there wasn't one and there never has been one and like will not be one in my lifetime. If you want to talk who might have been favored in a 16 team playoff, then I'll talk up Georgia or USC. If you want to talk who had legit claims to last Monday's night exhibition slots we can talk any of eight or so teams.

Consistent within the context of whatever the thread discussion is...

[Bucs90]

Zoom, ask any player in the Big 12: Would you rather have an Orange Bowl Championship ring or a Big 12 Championship ring?

Then you'll know who had the best season.

And you are not 100% consistent. Prior to the Big 12 Championship game, Kansas and Missouri each had 1 loss in the conference. Missouri won head to head, thus, Missouri is better.

Now, according to your logic, the debate ends there. According to NFL rules, it ends there. There is no NFC East Championship game. If the season ended prior to the Big 12 Championship game, then by your logic only the Big 12 standings would be Missouri 2, Kansas 2, OU 3 based on record and head to head. Now, since Kansas wasn't good enough to qualify for the Big 12 Championship, they were sitting at home when Missouri and OU played for the ring. And thus, one of the teams would lose. Missouri lost. OU won the ring. All while Kansas watched from home because they weren't good enough to qualify for that game.

Then, Missouri and Kansas won their bowls, and you say Kansas now should be rated higher than both the team that beat them for the right to play in the conference championship, and the team that actually won it.

So, in closing, I'd say this: Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma all started the season with the same three goals:

1. Win the division
2. Win the Big 12
3. Win the BCS National Championship

Oklahoma accomplished 2 goals. Missouri accomplished 1 goal. Kansas accomplished 0 goals.

Who had the best season? Just trying to be consistent.

[GatorGrad]

If you want to talk who I think had the best season, that was Kansas, BY FAR AND WIDE.

By beating who? Who did Kansas beat? Tell me please. "Far and wide?" You're too funny. Their best win was over VaTech in what you call a meaningless exhibition game. And LSU toyed with VaTech in an actual regular season game, not to mention won their division, won their conference, beat several solid teams, and beat the Big Ten Champs. Kansas did none of the above. Kansas had a wonderful season. But to say that they had the "best season by far and wide" is a stretch at best.

[ZOOMBAG]

It doesn't matter WHO Kansas beat. They played 12 Div IA opponents and beat 11 of them, plus one from the next competitive level down.

The fact that you think it matters proves you are brainwashed by college BS. They had the best record in Div IA. They played softer schedule but not soft enough to matter and they more than made up for it by winning those games by close to the highest margin in all of the division.

That is logic untempered by college fan foolishness with obscene weights on insignificant factors like schedules, quality wins, attendance, TV draw, and the other crap fans of other sports don't even contemplate.

[ZOOMBAG]

More subjective crap. So now the national titles have a "goals met" component.

Well that's typical collage fan lunacy for you. Par for the course in this collection of nutball fans.

Nope, in REAL team sport the ONLY thing that matters is Wins and Losses. Period. The other stuff is for breaking ties when the records are the same.

[Lincoln Tower]

You keep saying who you beat doesn't matter, and you say it's based on Sagarin's methods, yet you've never actually proven your point.

A win over one team isnt even to a win over another one in a 12 game season. Your entire way of thinking is based on that concept, and yet you've never shown any justification for it. Until you come up with a proof or substantial evidence proving that, your "perception" is as flawed as the ones you rail against.

[ZOOMBAG]

A win is a win. A loss is a loss. There is no SOS or anything else. You resort to those things to resolve ties. Every other league competitive or recreational relies on that method of determining post season berths and seeding.

I mention Sagarin only because it is a good example of how to develop a rating system using only pure mathematics not a subjective notion of what you "feel" a weight should be by your own perception, as most computer based rating in MAssey do. Sagarin is a rare exception in that his rating is purely scientific.

But it's purpose is PREDICTIVE, a completely different statistical body of work than a pure qualitative rating of past performance.. It;s just a good example of HOW one should approach developing a rating system.

[Lincoln Tower]

We ARE making "qualitative" ratings and judgements. "Who is better than who"? That is what this thread is about. Now you say this method isn't used for (your word is "purpose") "qualitative" analysis. Then why use this method for something isn't supposed to be used for?

[ZOOMBAG]

When you get past wins and losses you are immediately into the realm of the subjective. If you have to include things like SOS and MOV and home-away, you have to apply them as accurately as possible. The only thing I have ever read on those two popular college football concepts was in a paper Sagarin presented to the original BCS commissioners when they were trying to pick the computer ratings to use for the BCS. It was there that he stated his preference for MOV over SOS and that both were VERY MINOR factors and the overwhelming factor was simply winning. Over the 20+ years of his rating it has usually taken 50-60 SOS differential to equal a loss but a team with a 25 point positive MOV will completely wipe out a 50 point SOS differential.

So to without having access to any his or anyone else's formulations it simply makes basic sense that KU's MOV rating cancels out their SOS rating so their record of 12-1 is accurate and it is the best in the division so they win. And Hawaii is also 12-1 but they have a low MOV and very high SOS.

Now Sagarin has other factors, too, so his rating has KU a close #2 to LSU.

And I don't care who agrees with it or not. But it is a 100% LOGICAL approach. Now if you have links to anything else demonstrating where SOS has been mathematically proven to be a much more significant factor than what Sagarin claims it to be I'll read it. But so far, his paper to the BCS, publish in USA-Today the summer before the first BCS season, is only definitive thing I have ever seen on the subject.

[Lincoln Tower]

Well where the heck is this paper. Not on his website. Until I read it I can't accept it on faith alone.

[Bucs90]

OK Zoom. Perfect proof. The LSU Tigers went 12-2. The Miami Dolphins went 1-15. Same sport. No common opponent. Who is better? Hmmm. SOS kinda matters in that one.

You said my "goals" list was "subjective"? Are you kidding? There is nothing more objective about on-field performance.

Kansas LOST it's division on the field, with as much a fair chance to win it as any other team in the Big 12. They LOST it. Repeat, lost it. Nothing but pure, on field performance. You can't win the division without beating the other teams. You can't win the conference without winning the division. You cant win the NC without winning the conference. Pretty simple, huh?

But, basically, I see it like this according to your logic. Kansas is better than Missouri because despite the fact that Missouri beat Kansas, Missouri lost twice to OU, thus Missouri's win over Kansas in the Division Championship game is meaningless. Correct?

Or, even better. Lets say a team is undefeated, like Boise was last year. And the BCS has 2 1 loss teams in it's game. You would say for that team to win the Zoombag National Championship that they should decline any bowl bid, thus guaranteeing that they'll finish as the only undefeated team and win YOUR NC, right?

[Bucs90]

I'm so amazed by this logic, I gotta just be sure I understand. So, if SOS is completely irrelevant, then ALL that matters is a football team winning a football game, regardless of who it is against. So, if Miami Dolphins go 1-15 vs NFL teams, and Kansas goes 11-1 vs 1-A competition, Kansas would beat Miami Dolphins? I mean SOS doesn't matter, right? It's just record vs record.

Oh, you say it's different levels, different age groups, right? Ok. What about Mount Union? When Mt Union has an undefeated season, are they the best team in college football? Could they beat the BCS Champion? Same age group. Same sport. SOS doesn't matter, right? Mount Union could've gone undefeated vs Kentucky's schedule just as easy as their own. Thats YOUR logic.

[Blue Hen]

Trying to extract sense from Zoom on this is like trying to extract sense from B90 regarding HFA :-)

[GatorGrad]

The fact that you think it matters proves you are brainwashed by college BS. They had the best record in Div IA. They played softer schedule but not soft enough to matter and they more than made up for it by winning those games by close to the highest margin in all of the division.

When you say that KU's softer schedule was "not soft enough to matter" you do realize that this is just your opinion, right? CJ has an objective formula too...his has LSU #1. Why? Do you realize that even in objective formulas, the weight for SOS can be different? One formula could put a lot of weight on SOS and put LSU #1. Another could put KU #1.

This is hilarious. Please tell me you are smarter than this. Please.

[Bucs90]

I still also want to see the SOS formula. Just because Sagarin said it (who I've been saying for years is a joke) doesn't make it true. So what, Sagarin said it's so. I don't agree.

Rather than SOS, I look at COL (chance of loss). You can play cupcakes, but how many top teams does a team play? Kansas played 1 in the regular season. Only one. Missouri played 4 games vs BCS bowl teams (OU twice, Kansas, Illinois). Their "chance of loss" was higher. Auburn 2004 perfect example. Weaker overall SOS, because of OOC. But played more top 25 teams than anyone. Their COL- chance of loss, was far higher.

In that regard, COL absolutely matters, and Kansas had a very low COL. Only faced 1 good team. Missouri faced 4. OU faced Missouri twice, Texas once.