Hen, only watched 3 so far, but....

[Bucs90]

I can't help but notice the HFA theory falling on it's face in the 3 bowls I've watched.

I saw East Carolina travel about twice as far as Boise St did, and beat them. I saw Purdue go into Central Michigan's home state, and beat them. And I'm watching Texas crush Arizona State right inside of Pac10 country. Did I miss the HFA in these games?

[Bucky]

Are you serious?


This is one of the better posts of the year, not a moment too soon.

[Blue Hen]

B90, you gotta be kidding. Your minuscule examples are good but 100% of something will always tell you more than 0.01% of something. One last time :

45.9 % of all SEC conf games played were won by the visiting team.
45.2 % of all P10 conf games played were won by the visiting team.
44.5 % of all ACC conf games played were won by the visiting team.
41.5 % of all B10 conf games played were won by the visiting team.
39.6 % of all BE conf games played were won by the visiting team.
39.0 % of all B12 conf games played were won by the visiting team.

HFA appears to be 'real'.....don't you think ?.....and this is a BCS era 2,348 game sample. Now you're trying to offer me a sample of 3 bowl games that you happened to watch to prove that HFA doesn't exist ???? ( btw in 6 of the 8 PSEGs played, the 'relative' visiting team has won) If you were to research all PSEGs played you would find that the 'relative' home team would win the most......probably not as much as the conference percentages but a majority...guaranteed !
I did research the Florida teams. UM, FSU, UF, UCF, USF, and FAU are currently a combined 24-33 in bowls played outside of their State and 30-13-3 in bowls played within the State....... .411 out and .689 in. Is that just a coincidence ?....and that's a decent 103 game sample.

[Bucs90]

Well, I'd say the Florida example deserves more research, as I'd say when those teams have good seasons, they get into one of the many good Florida bowls. When they are mediocre (and IMO don't deserve a bowl with 6 wins) they get into a lesser bowl, like in Shreveport or Memphis. So, sure, the outside of Florida bowls probably draw many of the more mediocre Florida teams. Have to research that one myself, as I don't have the info upfront.

Come on Hen, you know this was gonna come up!!

I am simply continuing my quest to identify the actual true HFA factors. I'd like to say crowd noise, intimidation are it. But, as you showed above, the conference with on average to largest, loudest and most hostile crowds actually show the least HFA. So, crowd noise and hostility aren't it.

Maybe one day I'll identify the actual, true game affecting HFA factors. Until then, I label it a myth.

[GatorGrad]

A few thoughts on Hen and Bucs90's last posts:

1) Hen those %'s are all conference games played in a true "road environment" where 90% of the fans are rooting for the home team. I agree that HFA exists but it is very very very minimal in neutral site bowl games and stats for conference game HFA's shouldn't be used to prove HFA in bowl games.

2) Bucs90 you are right that the Florida school bowl winning % requires more research. As we know, matchups play a large role here. And when teams like Florida, FSU, or Miami qualify for bowls like the Orange, Capital One, Outback, etc they usually have pretty solid teams with favorable matchups. Hen do you have the actual results for all of these games?

3) I'm still not sure what to make of the conference road winning % thing. That is one that baffles me. As Bucs90 points out, the conference with the largest, loudest, and most hostile crowds overall is last in HFA. Maybe having 4 of the 12 teams (one third of the conference) being Kentucky, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Miss St hurt the average? Those venues don't usually scare anyone. Maybe it's a case of it being "top heavy" where the top half of the conference has a very large HFA...places like The Swamp, Death Valley, etc while the bottom half is so bad that it brings the overall conference #'s down? Hen - do you have the #'s for each individual school in the SEC?

[Bucky]

3) I'm still not sure what to make of the conference road winning % thing. That is one that baffles me. As Bucs90 points out, the conference with the largest, loudest, and most hostile crowds overall is last in HFA. Maybe having 4 of the 12 teams (one third of the conference) being Kentucky, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Miss St hurt the average? Those venues don't usually scare anyone. Maybe it's a case of it being "top heavy" where the top half of the conference has a very large HFA...places like The Swamp, Death Valley, etc while the bottom half is so bad that it brings the overall conference #'s down? Hen - do you have the #'s for each individual school in the SEC?

I'm not sure how you would quantify having the loudest and most hostile crowds.

But it's a fact that the Big Ten has the largest stadiums on average in college football, not the SEC.

[GatorGrad]

Oh it's not something I can really prove, Bucky. I admit it's my opinion and perception that the SEC provides the largest # of hostile environments to play in. You note that the Big Ten has the largest stadiums on average, but it is also perception nationally that the biggest stadium (Michigan) is not that loud compared to the size...more of a wine and cheese crowd. Tennessee for example is almost as large, but I feel confident in saying that their fans are louder. Again, I can't prove it...just opinion based on everything I have heard.

That said, I would actually put the Big Ten right up there with the SEC as far as # of hostile environments. Then the Big 12. I think those three conferences are on a different level than the ACC, Big East, and PAC 10 which is why Hen's #'s still baffle me. In the SEC you have The Swamp, Death Valley, Rocky Top, The Plains, Bama, Between the Hedges, and even Arkansas/USCe sell out and have dedicated and passionate fans who bring the noise. The Big Ten has OSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. The Big 12 has OU, Texas, TAMU, Nebraska, etc.

If I had to pick a 4th conference, I guess I would say the ACC with VaTech, Clemson, and FSU leading the way. But the # of Vandy-like atmospheres (Duke, Wake, UNC, etc) bring it down IMO. The PAC 10 would be next with Oregon leading the pack. I would put the Big East last as far as intimidating venues...one of the main reasons I find Hen's data to be so confusing!

[Bucky]

Oh it's not something I can really prove, Bucky. I admit it's my opinion and perception that the SEC provides the largest # of hostile environments to play in. You note that the Big Ten has the largest stadiums on average, but it is also perception nationally that the biggest stadium (Michigan) is not that loud compared to the size...more of a wine and cheese crowd. Tennessee for example is almost as large, but I feel confident in saying that their fans are louder. Again, I can't prove it...just opinion based on everything I have heard.

That said, I would actually put the Big Ten right up there with the SEC as far as # of hostile environments. Then the Big 12. I think those three conferences are on a different level than the ACC, Big East, and PAC 10 which is why Hen's #'s still baffle me. In the SEC you have The Swamp, Death Valley, Rocky Top, The Plains, Bama, Between the Hedges, and even Arkansas/USCe sell out and have dedicated and passionate fans who bring the noise. The Big Ten has OSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. The Big 12 has OU, Texas, TAMU, Nebraska, etc.

If I had to pick a 4th conference, I guess I would say the ACC with VaTech, Clemson, and FSU leading the way. But the # of Vandy-like atmospheres (Duke, Wake, UNC, etc) bring it down IMO. The PAC 10 would be next with Oregon leading the pack. I would put the Big East last as far as intimidating venues...one of the main reasons I find Hen's data to be so confusing!

I agree. The SEC and Big Ten are pretty much on par with each other in hostility and size of crowd. Like you said, I don't think any other conference is close to those two.

But in the end, I think HFA has a lot more to do with comfort and familiarity than size or sound of the crowd. Humans, by nature, are habitual creatures who are mostly adverse to change.

HFA is almost impossible to indentify, but as time and statistics have shown, it does exsist. In many different forms.

[Blue Hen]

I think you'll eventually find that the 'whys' of HFA are a plethora of tiny, seemingly insignificant ,comfort zone factors that add up to an ever slight advantage over time and numbers....and although the SEC has been the easiest conference for winning on the road, those numbers still clearly indicate a HFA.

[Blue Hen]

1) Of course RHFA winning % would be a`smaller factor than conference HFA....as I stated in my post.

2) I have the results of all those bowl games` played in Florida. Everybody does. They are in the 'All Star and Bowl Game' section of the NCAA records book. Not sure how you want the relative match-up factor researched...there are many ways to do that. Lots of time and effort required there and I'm getting old and lazy....soooo..

3) Those individual SEC school H&A conference records can be found at Sportslink (trivia) for anybody that can use that site. I got the numbers from Sportslink by way of ktffan.

[Bucs90]

GG, I think that assumption that the SEC has the most hostile crowds just comes from testimony of players and coaches. Of course, for better or worse football is taken VERY serious in the South, so a more hostile crowd would be assumed. But it seems every player and coach I've seen talk about it says the SEC's crowds are the most hostile and loud ones around, while individual teams in other conferences produce the same atmosphere, such as Oregon and Ohio St. But there aren't any wine and cheese crowds down South, at least in the major conferences.

And, Hen, once again I don't oppose the idea of HFA. I just want to know what the factors are. If they are seemingly insignificant, then maybe they are insignificant. If you add 0 + 0 a million times, it is still 0. I guess I'm just stubborn. I can't believe in something until I have proof of it. And I'm truly open minded to discussing what these discomforts are, but I just don't see them. I think HFA is nothing more than an excuse for mentally weak teams to use when they play poorly on the road.

[ZOOMBAG]

Home field is a real advantage. I think, overall in Div IA, it's worth about 1.94 points. But as in everything it varies by team. Some teams even have a road advantage, playing better on the road than at home. I think for much of the past 20 years, LSU, despite the reputation of their loud stadium, had the smallest homefield advantage in the SEC. Sagarin's calcs come up with the 1.94 (published in USA Today in Jan of 2007) but his predictive system says to add 3 points to the home team.... so in college football I guess it's safe to assume about 2-3 point home advantage, on average.

[GatorGrad]

1) Of course RHFA winning % would be a`smaller factor than conference HFA....as I stated in my post.

2) I have the results of all those bowl games` played in Florida. Everybody does. They are in the 'All Star and Bowl Game' section of the NCAA records book. Not sure how you want the relative match-up factor researched...there are many ways to do that. Lots of time and effort required there and I'm getting old and lazy....soooo..

3) Those individual SEC school H&A conference records can be found at Sportslink (trivia) for anybody that can use that site. I got the numbers from Sportslink by way of ktffan.

I'm pretty sure topic #2 came up earlier this year and I did do the research...this was a few months ago. And if I recall, the Florida schools on average had much tougher matchups in out of state games vs in-state games which is why I've never really bought into that florida bowl stat you like to throw around as proof that HFA is significant in neutral site bowl games.

[Bucs90]

I still just don't buy it because of the lack of examples. What are the actual factors? When showing overall home records, of course they'll be better at home in 1-A because they get cupcakes at home. Hen showed the conference stats, which are more reliable because of parity in scheduling, but the fact that the SEC shows the least HFA, when it would make one think that conference would have the most due to weather, crowd noise, hurts the chance that the stat shows anything concrete. HFA exists in only one form: An easy, available excuse in the minds of mentally weak teams.

[Blue Hen]

HFA exists. That's historically proven. The 'whys' and 'hows' of HFA are , indeed, somewhat mysterious.

[Bucs90]

How do we know it's not spurrious?

Now, I concede HFA exists in the form of an excuse for mentally weak teams. Teams that truly think HFA is going to affect them will be affected. But those teams are gonna be bad anyway, home or away.

Now, when two great teams collide, IMO, it just doesn't matter where it happens. Great teams play great no matter where they are. I think the mentally weak teams buy into HFA, and let it seep into their minds, offering yet another excuse for their poor play. In that respect, HFA exists, only in the mind of weak teams. But when 2 great teams play, I just don't think HFA exists. Great teams won't allow it to. I look at Miami vs FSU in the last 25 years. HFA didn't matter. It was war no matter where they played.

So, Hen, would you say, or does Vegas say, that in the Super Bowl the team closest to the site has HFA? If the Super Bowl were in San Diego and it was Arizona vs Indy, would Arizona have HFA?

[Bucs90]

Oh, and a month or so ago, I did post several links to studies debunking HFA. In fact, World Series results have basically detroyed the HFA theory.

[Blue Hen]

I missed that post, somehow.

[ZOOMBAG]

Over the long haul, points for minus points against, home and away, for conference games. Comes to about 2-3 points, overall.

[ZOOMBAG]

Try this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_advantage

It statistically exists. It's not that significant, but it does exist.

[Bucs90]

Wikipedia? How about I just quote Leroy from up around the corner street?

For every HFA study showing it exists, there is one to disprove it, such as the fact that the World Series has basically debunked it entirely.

See, HFA is nothing but an excuse for weak minded teams. The fact is if a team wins on the road, it is said they won despite HFA. If they lose, it can be blamed on HFA. So, really, it can't be proven.

I stick to my stand- HFA exists ONLY in the result of extreme weather and as an excuse in the minds of weak players and coaches. That is all.

[HellYeahHokie]

Why do Las Vegas bookies factor in 2-3 points for the home team if HFA doesn't exist?

You are arguing against proven statistics.

[Blue Hen]

B90 knows more than the gambling industry, more than all the computer rating systems and more than all historical statistical results of football..I guess.


B90, I think your 'more guns will reduce gun crime' theory even makes more sense than your 'HFA is a myth' theory.

[Bucs90]

http://www.progspicks.com/themyth.html

I've never thought much of bookies and Vegas types. If they were the all-knowing folks they are made out to be, people wouldn't bet on games, as there would be no chance of winning.

I'm not narrow minded about HFA, it's just that in my experience, I don't think it is consistent or relevant. It all comes down to which team is better. The link above showed that the home team in NFL 2006 was 118-133 ATS! So, while the home team won, it didn't cover the spread. So, HFA didn't cause the win......the fact that the home team was just a better team caused the win!!! 6 of the last 7 World Series have been won by the "away" team.

I'm open to listen to what all these hundreds of little discomforts that add up are. Just what ARE they? Hey, maybe I'll go back into coaching and create more of these little traumas on the mind for visiting teams. I've NEVER heard a coach blame HFA on a loss. It's the better team that wins. Period. That link showed that 6 teams had a DISadvantage! Pressure from playing in front of fans and alumni????

HFA is simply in inconsistent theory, and inconsistency debunks any true theory.

[Bucs90]

Looking at the numbers from that link- the 2006 Patriots had the LEAST amount of HFA!!!!

The freakin' modern dynasty in all of sports had the least HFA. How is that? Pressure at home in front of fans with high expectations? Every team comes into the home of the king and treats it as the Super Bowl??? There are a hundred explanations.

And that is the problem. Any given game in any level can offer countless explanations of why a team is or isn't affected by HFA. It is simply one of the most inconsistent theories in sports.

And I correct myself. He posted 9 NFL teams had home field DISadvantages. And 15, less than 50%, had an advantage above 0 points. And in the NFL, the home team in 2006 was 47% ATS.

[Blue Hen]

Forget ATS. ATS makes the 3 point HFA adjustment. Look up all NFL games ever played and compare any NFL franchise home and away record and you will clearly see the stastistical 'home' advantage.....like the rest of the sports world sees it.

[Blue Hen]

the 2006 Patriots ???? c'mon , that's a .0000064 % sample. HFA is the big , overall factor. Your tiny little, selective 'samples' are meaningless.

[ZOOMBAG]

Uhhh, they ARE all knowing. They make the most money by having exactly the same amount of money on both sides the spread. Like a bank that makes money on the difference between the interest rate they charge for a loan and what they pay on deposits, a book makes money on his fee, not by winning or losing the bet. The trick for the house is finding the line that will ensure the money comes down 50-50...

[ZOOMBAG]

HFA is a REAL, QUANTITATIVE FACT, period. It is not an overwhelming factor by any means, being less than 3 points across the board in college football, but an undeniable FACT that it exists and can be measured. And among the 120 Div IA programs some actually do have a home field DISADVANTAGE, but overall it is about a +2 and change....

[aufan59]

Uhhh, they ARE all knowing. They make the most money by having exactly the same amount of money on both sides the spread. Like a bank that makes money on the difference between the interest rate they charge for a loan and what they pay on deposits, a book makes money on his fee, not by winning or losing the bet. The trick for the house is finding the line that will ensure the money comes down 50-50...


A lot of line making is public perception. Vegas tends to stretch the lines out of favor of the team that the general public thinks is better. The lines are very much public perception trying to get most of the public on the losing side. Chargers, Steelers, Patriots, Colts, etc. all get bad lines because the public is all over them, and it is especially true in the night games. There is a reason why a lot of good cappers hate being on the side where most of the public money is on. Vegas makes lines that the public will bite on, and lose on.

[ZOOMBAG]

Of course it is perception based but there is no "losing side". The professional betting houses make money on bet placement. They maximize profit when EXACTLY 50% of the money is on EACH SIDE. They strive to get a perfect 50-50 balance of money on both sides, the same way a grain shipper will always balance futures against an inventory and delivery contracts so as to make money on their basis.

[ZOOMBAG]

Nope, it's a widely know, statistical FACT that even professional betting houses use. It is a mathematical, scientifically proven FACT, period, end of discussion.

[aufan59]

Nope, it's a widely know, statistical FACT that even professional betting houses use. It is a mathematical, scientifically proven FACT, period, end of discussion.

But do they factor it in for bowl games?

I thought the main HFA debate was about whether or not it existed for bowl teams playing close to home.

[ZOOMBAG]

Not really sure what they do for supposedly neutral site games. But you can be assured they have a factor of some sort for every potential host team in every bowl they maintain a line on.

[GatorGrad]

For the record, I agree that HFA exists in normal games played on campus where 90% of the fans are rooting for the home team, or when there is a significant advantage for one team with the weather ie a southern team playing a northern team outdoors in the north in January or a northern team playing a southern team outdoors in the south in Spetember. But for these bowl games where tickets are split 50/50, the weather is 60 degrees, players arrive several days in advance, etc? If there is a HFA it is very very very minimal IMO. Not enough of a factor to affect the outcome of the game consistently.

If the Green Bay Packers play the San Diego Chargers in Glendale, Arizona on February 3rd, I find it hard to believe that the Packers will be at any sort of real home-field disadvantage. Both teams arrive early, there is no noise advantage for either team, and the weather should be comfortable for both teams to play in. Same deal when northern teams play southern teams in neutral site bowl games in the south in January IMO.

[ZOOMBAG]

I was at the Outback Bowl four of five years ago when Florida played Michigan. Gator fans filled about 2/3rds or more of the stadium and were clearly louder than Michigan fans (The 2000 visiting fans at the Big House are usually louder than the 100,000+ Michigan fans in the Big House, too...). Didn't seem to bother Michigan too much as they won the game.

But HFA, as a rule, DOES exist. It's just a pretty minor factor and usually overridden by a lot of other facets of the game.

[GatorGrad]

I was at the Outback Bowl four of five years ago when Florida played Michigan. Gator fans filled about 2/3rds or more of the stadium and were clearly louder than Michigan fans (The 2000 visiting fans at the Big House are usually louder than the 100,000+ Michigan fans in the Big House, too...). Didn't seem to bother Michigan too much as they won the game.

But HFA, as a rule, DOES exist. It's just a pretty minor factor and usually overridden by a lot of other facets of the game.

I was at that Outback Bowl too and I think 2/3 vs 1/3 is a stretch. I would have put it at 60%/40% at best...not enough to normally affect crowd noise one way or another enough to impact a game by causing false starts, delay of games, etc. Also, many seats were filled with neutral fans as these bowls are so often - sponsors, etc.

[Bucs90]

I just want to know what the factors are, if it does indeed exist. Thats all. And I have yet to be given any true, gameplay affecting factor or condition to give a bowl game any HFA.